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C c chan

  1. 1. Global Outlook of Electric Vehicles & Their Infrastructure 全球电动汽车及其基础实施 的发展前景 Professor C.C. Chan, FIEEE, FIET, FHKIE Academician, Chinese Academy of Engineering Fellow, Royal Academy of Engineering, U.K., President, World Electric Vehicles Association President, Electric Vehicle Association of Asia Pacific Honorary Professor, University of Hong Kong 陈清泉 中国工程院院士、英国皇家工程院院士 世界电动车协会主席、香港大学荣誉教授
  2. 2. 主要内容 Content• 全球可持续发展 Global Sustainable Development• 电动汽车技术路线和产业化路线 Technical & Commercial Roadmaps of Electric Vehicles• 动力电池的挑战 Challenge of Power Batteries• 智能电网与电动汽车基础实施 Smart Grid & EV Infrastructure• 标准化 Standardization
  3. 3. 主要观点: 电动汽车是革命性(Disruptive)的产业• 不能各自为政,要协调发展。• 建立新的产业联盟、新的产业链、新的绿色制 造业。• 要重点突破。重点发展公交电动汽车和小型电 动汽车。• 小型电动汽车要从优化拓扑结构,轻量化、绿 色制造。开发多功能、低端和高端系列产品。• 吸取世界上开发小型电动汽车的经验教训,集 成世界优势,开发世界一流的小型电动汽车打 入世界,为中国高科技产品出口打先锋。
  4. 4. Changes in Automotive IndustryUnification Assemble
  5. 5. 把握三个关键—锂离子动力电池成套技术;—动力集成系统集成关键技术;—公共能源供给系统关键技术。
  6. 6. 总理情切关怀 Premier’s Consideration 温总理: 我国电动汽车产业正处在 一个关键时期Premier Wen Jia-bao:In our country, EV Industry isin crucial phase. 2010年11月15日
  7. 7. 2003: Artic ice free by20702008: Artic ice freeby 2013 ?
  8. 8. 2050: 50% Reduction of Global Emission 2050年降低全球50%排放● ‘50 by 50’ is not enough… 2050年50%电动汽车还不够● 2010: 850 million vehicles in the global car parc 2010年全球8.5亿汽车 ● Using 55% of oil production 消耗55%油产量 ● Approx 15% of global CO2 emissions 排出15% CO2● 2050: 3 billion vehicles 2050年全球30亿汽车● 2050: 50% reduction in global emissions needed for ‘2o’ 为维持‘2o’温升需要降 低50%全球排放● Must reduce vehicle emissions by at least a factor of 6 汽车排放必需降低6倍● That means 180g/km down to less than 30g/km 要从180g/km降到 30g/km● We will need some disruptive solutions… 需要革命性地解决问题 8
  9. 9. Problems from Automobiles 汽车带来的问题:能源、环境、交通安全 Worldwide Industry and <Automobile Related IssuesTechnology Developments in the 20th Century Stress on Oil Reserve Sharp Increase on Fossil Fuel Consumption Increase on CO2 emission (Global Warming) -Population Growth Air Pollution (Nitrogen oxides, Particulates, Ozone) -Vehicle Population Growth Increase on Traffic Accidents
  10. 10. Growing Gap between Oil Discovery and Production 石油储藏发现和产量的差距 Projection 60 50 Discovery Billion Barrel / Year Peak 40 Production Production 30 20 10 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 Reference: http://www.oilposter.org Year Oil production will reach the peak in the near future
  11. 11. Automobile Revolution in New Century 新世纪汽车的革命• Energy: Efficient, Alternative Fuels. 能源• Environment: Minimal Emissions. 环境• Safety and Intelligent. 安全智能• Powertrain: Electrification and hybridization动力• Alternative Fuels 能源• Control: New Control Theory and Algorithm, Computerization and Digitalization 控制• Future Vehicle: 4 wheels +computer
  12. 12. Fuel-and Powertrain Strategy 能源和动力驱动
  13. 13. 电动汽车的成功:三好因素 好的产品、好的基础设施、好的商业模式 Success of EV/PHEV - Goodness Factor :Good Products; Good Infrastructure; Good Business Model 基础设施 Infrastructure EV Market 商业模式 产品 Success Business Products models
  14. 14. 好的产品:高性能、合理价格 Good Products: High Performance @ Reasonable CostI: Integration of Automotive Technology and Electrical TechnologyA: Alliance among Auto Makers and Key Component Suppliers 动力驱动 Powertrain Technology 底盘和车体 I+A 能源储存 Chasis & Energy Storage Body Technology Technology
  15. 15. Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Powertrain Integration 动力驱动的集成
  16. 16. Good Infrastructure: Efficient & Convenience 好的基础实施:方便、经济、高效Parking 14 hrs per day 2 hrs per day 7 hrs per dayDurationsCharging 1 charging point per < 0.5 charging point per vehicle 1 charging point perPoints vehicle vehiclePower & Low power and High power and quick charging Low power andCharing time normal charging (e.g. 22 kW, 2 hrs) normal chargingRequirements (e.g. 3kW, 10 hrs) (e.g. 3kW, 7 hrs)
  17. 17. 《中国纯电动轿车商业模式及基础设施战略规划》 A、以城市为基本建网单位原则 B、以换电导入、充电跟进原则
  18. 18. 背景 模式研究与确立 网络建设 网络关键技术研究 网络运营体系 网络管理体系 技术创新 展望 电池更换设备 智能充换电 服务网络关键技术研究 ——基于标准 电池箱的 快速更换技术
  19. 19. Comparison of Gas Station & Storage Quick Charging 储能快速充电站和加油站的比较
  20. 20. EV ChargerNatural gas EV Charger Power AC Coal Generation 100V / 200VBiomass AC 200 V (TOYOTA INDUSTRIES CORPORATION) Power Grid Nuclear EV DC Renewable energy Rapid charging DC 500 V (HASETEC Corporation) AC charger (100V/200V) for daily use DC charger (rapid charging) for emergency use
  21. 21. 创新的商业模式Innovative EV/PHEV Business Model 整车厂和关键 政府 零部件厂 能源 供应商 用户
  22. 22. 《中国纯电动轿车商业模式及基础设施战略规划》 刷卡消费 裸车销售 智能管理 电池租赁 充换兼容
  23. 23. 背景 模式研究与确立 网络建设 网络关键技术研究 网络运营体系 网络管理体系 技术创新 展望业务模型
  24. 24. Two Integration 两个结合• Integrate EV with Smart Grid电动汽车和智能电网的结合• Integrate EV with Telemetic / ICT电动汽车和远程智能信息控制、 汽车移动物联网相结合
  25. 25. Goal: Four Zero 目标:四个零• Zero Emission 零排放• Zero Fossil Fuel 零化石燃料• Zero Traffic Accident零交通事故• Zero Traffic Congestion零交通堵塞
  26. 26. By 2020, EVs would be about 7-12% of total volumes, China may reach 15-20% 全球电动汽车市场预测:2020年前约总销量的7-12%, 中国可达15-20% 2,400 Thousands Global Electric Vehicle Market (Sales): Scenario Analysis, 2008-2015 2,000Unit Shipments 1,600 Optimistic Scenario F&S Scenario Conservative Sceanrio 1,200 800 400 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 Scenarios 2008 2009 2015 (% of total car sales) Optimistic Scenario 5,103 17,475 2,266,450 12% F&S Scenario 5,103 8,911 1,226,607 7% Conservative Scenario 5,103 7,550 520,953 4%
  27. 27. Electric Vehicle Roadmap 2010 2012 2016 2020 ??? 10 — 15%100s of EVs 100,000+ vehicle fleets new vehicle sale 1st models 2nd Gen EVs Mass market EV available ‘Real’ electric innovation Public familiarity and acceptance: Formula 3 ● Fleet experience ● Acceleration of ● Early adopters consumer interest ● Government reliability and uptake procurement driver ● ‘Clean Cities’ response ● Infrastructure stdn ● Cost reductionMaintain current momentum Real ‘electric innovation’ Current industry CurrentRecession, EU and US regulations… focus CO2, energy security…… government focus Phase 1 Phase 2
  28. 28. 车载储能技术:新能源汽车核心多能源控制器 蓄电装置 储氢装置 电动机 燃料电池堆 燃料电池汽车动力基本结构
  29. 29. 技术路线:两条路线 Two Pathways for HEV Technology Development Technical Road Map内燃机改进 发展电力驱动
  30. 30. 电驱动电动汽车 重型 Heavy LoadFCV短途频繁起动 Duty Cycle 车辆载荷Stop-and-go 工况循环E-REV Drive Cycle 长途连续行驶 ContinuousBEV 轻型 Light Load 市中心 城郊 高速公路循环 高速公路 City Intra-Urban Highway-Cycle HighwayBEV———电池电动汽车(纯电动汽车)E-REV——增程式电动汽车FCV——燃料电池电动汽车
  31. 31. Hybrid Engineering Philosophy: 1+1>2 Hybrid Mule 骡 = Horse 马 (Mother) + Moke 驴 (Father)Mule is the hybrid of horse and moke, mule takes the best DNA ofhorse and moke, hence more powerful and endurance.HEV should have added value gained from the integration of enginepropulsion and motor propulsion, fully sizes the intelligent electrical,electronic and control technologies
  32. 32. 科学 Science 工程 Engineering发现。 *积合科学、技术、管理 一般真理的知识 解决实际问题 Discovery Integration认识世界 *改造世界 Understand world Create better world为什么? *怎么样?为了什么? Why How? What’s for?个体活动 *集体 Individual Team追求第一 First *追求最好 Best
  33. 33. Hybridization and Fuel Efficiency Potential/ Plug-in ICE Power Smart Starter Electric Power Start-Stop Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid Plug-in Range Electric Vehicle/ Extender EV/ Functionality/ • Engine start- • Engine off on • Full regenerative • Plug-in • Full-function • Plug-in recharge stop at idle deceleration braking rechargeable electric drive only • Mild regenerative • Engine cycle braking optimization • More electric drive• Initial pure electric • 100% pure electric • Electric power assist • Electric launch during charge- range range/100% • Limited pure electric depletion • Significantly • No refueling drive • Reduced refueling reduced refueling • Engine downsize • +2-4% • +10-20% • +30-50% Cars • +100% in charge • Electricity only in EV • Electricity onlyECONOMY depletion/100% range/在EV • +20-40% Trucks FUEL • same as full hybrid • same as full hybrid afterward afterward
  34. 34. R Ring gear C R2 VSI1 EM1 R Trans. R1 ICE C TC Carrier BAT Fuel TR S S VSI2 EM2 mechanical link Sun gear R3 electrical link TSFig. 1; Series-parallel hybrid Vehicle using a planetary gear unit Fig. 1a; Planetary gear unit VSI1 EM1 Trans. VSI1 EM1 BAT Fuel ICE BAT Fuel ICE Trans. VSI2 EM2 VSI2 EM2 Fig. 2; Series hybrid Vehicle Fig. 3; Parallel hybrid Vehicle VSI1 EM1 VSI1 EM1 Trans. BAT Fuel ICE Trans. BAT Fuel ICE VSI2 EM2 VSI2 EM2 Fig. 4; ICE Vehicle Fig. 5; Battery powered Electric Vehicle
  35. 35. Market Is Responding Mitsubishi BYD FordBMW Nissan Chevrolet Tesla Smart Toyota Mercedes
  36. 36. Battery Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Chevrolet BEV – Nissan Leaf PHEV – Chevy Volt• All Electric Range: 60 to 200 Miles, • Unlimited range on gasoline depending on battery size • 10 to 40 mile all electric on battery• Level II Charging • Level I and Level II Charging – 240 v (40 amp) – 120 v – 240 v – 4 to 6 hours charge – 6 to 8 hours Level 1 • Target markets: – 3 to 4 hours Level 2 – Urban Commuters • Target Market: all automotive – Second Car in Every Home applications
  37. 37. Response to Environmental and Energy Issues HVs & PHVs with FCHVs Heavy-duty Vehicle internal combustion engine trucks size Passenger cars Route buses HV EVs FCHV(BUS) Small Short-distance Delivery delivery vehicles trucks vehicles FCHV EV PHV i-REAL Winglet Driving Motorcycles distanceEnergy Gasoline, diesel, bio-fuels, compressedsources Electricity natural gas, gas to liquids, coal to liquids, etc. Hydrogen EVs: short-distance vehicles; HVs and PHVs with ICE: wide-use vehicles; FCHVs: medium-to-large vehicles.
  38. 38. 日本的经验:Japan Experience:Alliance between OEM & Battery Manufacturer Toyota Panasonic Nissan Mitsubishi
  39. 39. Honda 2011 Concept EV
  40. 40. Characteristic EV @ Kyoto西陣織 漆塗 京友禅 Kyoto-Car:Fusion of High-Tech and Traditional CultureBamboo-EV: Bamgoo Woody-EV GLM:TK-ZZ-EV
  41. 41. Kyoto-Car with Spherical Solar Cell “Sphelor” A le tr d ge c o e + n se h ll pc r oeKyoto-Car with “Sphelor” 1.5 mm in diameter Ae c oe l le tr dSolar cell sheets can be covered over all surfaces of car.
  42. 42. Energy Sources Comparison 各种能源的比较 Ultracapacitor Short-Period Energy Source Long PeriodSpecific Power (W/kg) Flywheel Energy Source Gasoline + ICE Electrochemical Batteries Fuel Cell Rechargeable Non- Rechargeable Specific Energy (Wh/kg)
  43. 43. 对动力电池的基本要求 Cycle Life > 2000 Cost < RMB 3000 (USD 375)/kWh Reliability: Volume of million vehicles Mileage of 150000 km
  44. 44. Direction and milestone of R&D for the batteries for vehicles<target properties of the battery at the pack level> Improved Advanced Innovative Current (2010) (2015) (2030) Commuter EVs Business use Small-sized EVs Fuel cell vehicles Vehicles commuter EVs Standard- expected to be Plug-in HV Plug-in HV sized EVs HVs More Efficient HVs realized (20km EV) (60km EV)Performance* 1 1 1.5 times 3 times 7 times Specific Energy [Wh/kg] 100 100 150 - 700EV Specific Power [W/kg] 400 1000 1200 - 1000 Specific Energy [Wh/kg] 70 70 100 200 -HV Specific Power [W/kg] 1900 2000 2000 2500 - cost 1 1/2 1/7 1/10 1/40 Universities and Leading role Industry Industry-government- Research Industry for development initiative academia collaboration institutions initiative*Relative comparison using gravimetric energy density NEDO Li-EAD NEDO RISING Project (’07-11) Project (’09-15)(source:http://www.meti.go.jp/report/downloadfiles/g60824b01j.pdf) 57
  45. 45. An example of Li-Ion cell cost estimationref.) the 3rd Workshop on the Research of common fundamental technology in the NEDO Project, “Development of 59 Electric Energy Storage System for Grid-connection with New Energy Resources” (Tokyo, Feb. 24, 2010) an
  46. 46. Impact of Temperature and Duty Cycle Normal Operation Abnormal Operation
  47. 47. 技术解决理念随着锂离子电池产品的发展,被公认的5大世界性难题:安全问题、一致性问题、快速充放电问题、寿命问题和产业化问题也受到了广泛关注,银通新能源本着人才为主,技术突破的理念通过材料、工艺、管理、环境、结构5大措施在该领域取得重大突破。
  48. 48. Pro’s & Con’s of LTOPro’s Con’s Intrinsically safe A voltage ~1.5V above Li0  Low spec. E.D. About 50-60% of conv. Li-ion cellsAmazingly long cycle life Nearly no SEI, Crystal Needs knowhow for scaled prod. structurally stability Good mat’l is hardly available. High rate capability Low impedance Lack of market consensus. Both quality & quantity are lacking Superb HT/LT performance
  49. 49. 核心技术 2009年2月,世界上首款环型 银通环型电池 动力电池在珠海银通新能源研究院 研发成功,独特的空心环形结构, 具有易散热、性能好、安全稳定及 寿命长等特点,从根本上解决了常 规电池所出现的易燃、易爆、极片 易变形等诸多难题,该结构电池向 世界上120多个国家申请了专利保 护权。
  50. 50. Comparison of Various Batteries 各类电池比较
  51. 51. Cell Manufacturing单体电池的制造工艺
  52. 52. Lithium-ion Battery
  53. 53. Battery Management System – Architecture 电池包管理系统
  54. 54. What it is Smart Grid? It is intelligent It allows two-way communication It allows real-time monitoring & control 72
  55. 55. Smart GridSource: Altalink, Alberta, Canada
  56. 56. Electric Power & Communication Infrastructures 1.Power Infrastructure Data network Users Central Generating Step-Up Station Transformer 2. Information Infrastructure Distribution Receiving DistributionControl Center Substation Gas Station Substation Turbine Recip Engine Micro- Distribution turbine Substation Residential Data Commercial Concentrator Recip Fuel Engine cell Photo voltaics Cogeneration Batteries Flywheel Industrial Commercial Residential Source: EPRI 74
  57. 57. Stability use for renewable energy by electric vehicle The renewable energy of sunlight, wind, etc. into which the amount of power generation greatly changes depending on the weather and time is saved in storage battery (LiB) with high efficiency. Renewable Energy Example: Equipment of one house Solar power Wind power [kw] (southeast2.6kW+southwest1.4kW) 2.5 Fine 2.0 1.5 Cloudy 1.0 Rain 0.5 0 6 12 18 24 ※Uncontrollable electric power Source data:the Research Center for Photovoltaics, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) HP Charging / Discharging Battery (LiB)
  58. 58. Smart House Increasing low carbon electricity and reduce peak electricity consumed Management of electricity storage by EV and/or Lithium ion battery Solar Cell Converter DC Sell AC Back up Charge Smart Meter Mid-night Charge Distribute electricity Buy AC DC Appliances Grid EV Battery(LiB)
  59. 59. Scenario for introducing Smart Grid Evolution from “Smart House” to “Smart Community”, “Smart Grid” Smart House Smart Community Smart Grid Self-sufficiency of Micro-grid Connection to “Grid” energy supply Network Fossil fuel Renewable energy
  60. 60. EVs would be plugged into home outlet for hours.High-speed response with synchronization could be realized Autonomous by using self-terminal frequency measurement. Distributed V2GMaintaining battery condition and charging request by itself ...Centralized control scheme dispatching LFC signals to storage devices Pump Storage Hydro Nuclear Thermal Ubiquitous Power Grid Battery Tie-line Power Grid Wind Power Grid Load Dispatching Center Regional Load ECU / BMU Dispaching Center Smart Charging Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) DC-DC InverterBattery Converterバッテリ Wind Motor Photovoltaic Distributed Grid Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Microgrid Electric Vehicle Battery Distributed Heat Storage Generator Heat Pump Load Water Heater
  61. 61. LFC without V2G LFC with V2G (200[MW]=5[kW]*4e4)Frequency deviation[Hz] Frequency deviation[Hz] 0 0 -0.02 Δfa -0.02 Δfb -0.04 -0.04 Δfa -0.06 -0.06 -0.08 Δfb -0.08 -0.1 -0.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 (a) Frequency deviations Time [s] 400 400 300 300 Thermal Thermal V2G 200 ΔPt 200 Power [MW] Power [MW] 100 Load 100 ΔPt 0 0 -100 Load -100 Load -200 -200 -300 Disturbance -300 Disturbance -400 -400 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 (b) Power of system a Time [s] 200 200 150 150 V2G 100 Thermal 100 Power [MW] Power [MW] 50 Load 50 Thermal 0 0 -50 -50 -100 -100 -150 -ΔPt -150 -ΔPt -200 -200 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 (c) Power of system b Time [s] V2G works as a spinning reserve faster than thermal power governor. Quality of frequency is improved, and oscillation is also damped. Response of thermal power generator become to be dominated by FFC-TBC, and it is said V2G don’t disturb power grid LFC.
  62. 62. 0.15 (a) Frequency deviation Frequency deviation [Hz] 0.10 +3σ 0.05 Moving 0.00 average -0.05 -0.10 -3σ -0.15 0 (b) 1 2 3 4 5 6 V2G power output and battery SOC 7 8 9 10 11 12 6 100 Charge 5 90 4 80 V2G power [kW] 3 Battery SOC [%] 2 70 1 60 0 50 -1 40 -2 Plug-out : 90[%] 30 -3 20Discharge-4 10 -5 Plug-in : 20[%] -6 0 7pm 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 7am Time [hour] Maintaining battery condition and replying charging request…OK Charge energy from 20 to 90[%] 11.59[kWh] (0.97[kW]) Additional cycles for grid V2G+ : 19.63[kWh] (1.64[kW]), V2G- : 7.78[kWh] (0.65[kW])
  63. 63. 背景 模式研究与确立 网络建设 网络关键技术研究 网络运营体系 网络管理体系 技术创新 展望 电池集中充电、统一配送、 电动汽车 换电为主、插充为辅,通电能供给模式 研究与确定 过三网融合,实施三化管 理、实现三同服务的跨区 域全覆盖智能充换电服务 网络。
  64. 64. 2 取得成果——系统设备CEV1100交流充电桩 主要功能: 提供AC220V/32A的交流供电能力,具备远 程控制接口。 提供一桩一充、一桩两充、立式、壁挂等 多种型号产品。 主要技术指标: 内容 技术指标 输出电压 220VAC±10%;50±1Hz 工作环境温度 -20℃~+50℃ 工作相对湿度 5%~95% 防护等级 IP55 三防 防潮湿,防霉变,防盐雾  具备设备本体及人身安全的双重安全防护  实现了测控保护、计量计费和充电过程联动控制的一体化设计  国内销量最大、规格最全 82
  65. 65. 2 取得成果——系统设备CEV1100交流充电桩-充电连接器 主要技术指标: 内容 技术指标 温升 端子处≤50K 使用寿命 ≥10000次 耐盐雾 96h 防护等级 IP65 插拔力 <80N 脱扣力 >160N  首次在充电连接器中采用整体式结构设计方式,具有优良的密封性和 高可靠的抗碾压性;  首次在充电连接器中采用特殊的导线与把手分离结构设计 83
  66. 66. 2 取得成果——系统设备CEV1200直流充电机 主要功能: 具备与BMS和充电设施监控系统通信功能 ;设置完善的保护,具有转换效率高、输 出电流稳定、可靠性高等特点 主要技术指标: 内容 技术指标 额定输出电压 DC600V(200~600V) 额定输出电流 DC100A 输出稳压精度 ≤±0.5% 输出稳流精度 ≤±1% 功率因数 ≥0.99(含APFC) 效率 ≥93%(半载以上)  LLC串联谐振控制技术,能量转换效率高,空载损耗低  电池特性的感知,充电曲线智能优化 84
  67. 67. 2 取得成果——系统设备CEV1200直流充电机-充电连接器 主要技术指标: 内容 技术指标 温升 端子处≤50K 使用寿命 ≥10000次 耐盐雾 96h 防护等级 IP65 插拔力 <140N 脱扣力 >200N  采用PA66加CoolPoly的导热合成材料注塑成型,保证连接器在250A额定电流 下连续工作,接触端子温升不超过50K  非金属件全部采用满足UL 94-V0标准的阻燃材料 85
  68. 68. 建立电动汽车公共能源供给体系,提供标准化蓄电池模块租赁服,是发展纯电动汽车的出路 。
  69. 69. 我国发展电动汽车之路• 要根据国情,利用我国自然资源、市 场、人力资源的优势,首先大力发展有 市场需求、能有效节能减排的小型 低速电动汽车和城市公交增程式电 动汽车或纯电动汽车,也不排除市场 能接受的其它型式混合动力汽车、积累 经验,不断提高在动力电池、电机电力 电子电控、动力总成等核心技术,向新 一代先进的电动汽车跨越发展。 • 中国特色、世界一流
  70. 70. ADAPTING: THE NEW ENERGY PARADIGM
  71. 71. SUCCESSSUCCESS
  72. 72. Inspiration 激情Imagination 想像力Innovation 創新Integration 集成Implementation 實現Investment 投資
  73. 73. Thank you!

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