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The Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Opportunities for the Eastern Nile

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Presented by Claudia Ringler, IFPRI, and Helen Berga, ZEF, at the Nile Basin Development Forum on October 24, 2017.

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The Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Opportunities for the Eastern Nile

  1. 1. The Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Opportunities for the Eastern Nile Claudia Ringler, IFPRI Helen Berga, ZEF October 24, 2017 Nile Basin Development Forum
  2. 2. Slow decline in malnourishment & alarming increase in obesity - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Africa south of the Sahara South Asia Developing Countries Stunted children (millions) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Overweight & obese children (millions) Undernourished people (millions) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: FAOSTAT3 (http://faostat3.fao.org/download/D/FS/E). Source: UN in de Onis, M, M. Blössner and E. Borghi. 2010. Global prevalence and trends of overweight and obesity among preschool children. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 92:1257–64. (http://www.who.int/nutgrowthdb/publications/overweight_obesity/en/).Source: de Onis, M, M. Blössner and E. Borghi. 2011 http://www.who.int/nutgrowthdb/publications/Stunting1990_2011.pdf. Africa Asia Developing Countries Africa Asia Developing Countries
  3. 3. Growing demand for more water intensive calories (meats/fruits/ vegetables) surpasses demand for R&T and cereals (SSP2, NoCC) 2010=1.0 Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
  4. 4. Growing water stress Source: Ringler et al. (2016) 36% 39% 22% 2.5 US$9.4 TRILLION Water stress risk BILLION PEOPLE TODAY Total population living in water scarce areas Global GDP generated in water scarce regions 52% 49% 45% US$63 TRILLION Total population living in water scarce areas 4.7 BILLION PEOPLE 90% 570% By 2050 Global GDP generated in water scarce regions population grain production global GDP
  5. 5. Projected energy production by source: Seems like Business as Usual, but.. in millions of tons of oil equivalent 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydroelectricity Biofuels Wind/Sol./Oth. Ren. Source: BP 2016 Energy Outlook
  6. 6. …projected substantial changes from a small base over 2014-35 BP 2016 Energy Outlook 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydroelectricity Nuclear Biofuels Wind/Solar/Oth. Ren. Growth per year
  7. 7. Maximum temperature (°C) Annual precipitation (mm) Climate change affects the nexus The case of maize yields using HadGEM (RCP8.5), DSSAT, and IMPACT (SSP2) Change in rainfed maize yields before economic adjustments Change in rainfed maize yields after economic adjustments Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
  8. 8. The SDGs can only be achieved if the Nexus is considered
  9. 9.  Can sectorally and regionally coordinated WEF developments increase economic benefits from water use in irrigation and hydropower in the Eastern Nile basin? o How would water allocation that maximizes economic benefit in one sector only impact benefit obtained in other sectors? o How would water allocation that maximizes economic benefit in one country impact benefits of the other riparians? Water-Energy-Food Nexus and the Eastern Nile
  10. 10. “Regional collaboration across WEF is essential” 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Strongly agree Agree Neutral Strongly disagree Egypt Ethiopia Sudan WEF Nexus Survey – Berga et al. 2017
  11. 11. “Ongoing regional cooperation is adequate to minimize tradeoffs and exploit synergies” 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Strongly agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly disagree Ethiopia Sudan Egypt WEF Nexus Survey – Berga et al. 2017
  12. 12. 1. Joint planning and investment in water resources management and development 2. Invest on benefit sharing projects like storage dams for hydropower generation in Ethiopia; large scale irrigation schemes in Sudan 3. Virtual water trade schemes 4. Adapt efficient water utilization strategies o Improving irrigation efficiency o Optimize the operation rules of dams in the basin 5. Watershed management especially in upstream catchments 6. Investment on trust building to consider the basin as one unit irrespective of political boundaries. What are potential joint investments across the Eastern Nile - Ethiopia WEF Nexus Survey – Berga et al. 2017
  13. 13. 1. Invest in joint programs and projects 1. Building multi-purpose dams 2. Investment in the three sectors should be based on comparative advantage. 1. Hydropower in Ethiopia, agriculture in South Sudan and Sudan, industry and marketing in Egypt 2. Regional energy trade 3. Sustainability / enhancing the quality of resources; 3. Invest in watershed management. What are potential joint investments across the Eastern Nile- Sudan WEF Nexus Survey – Berga et al. 2017
  14. 14. 1. Invest in improving food security (such as adapting high yielding crops). 2. Coordinated action to maintain ecosystem sustainability. 3. Invest in renewable energy (solar and wind ….). 4. Research based collaboration between the countries. 5. Reduce losses by enhancing resource use efficiency 6. Joint investment on infrastructures based on comparative advantage. 7. Major coordinated research effort to assess upstream and downstream costs and benefits from water resource developments. What are potential joint investments across the Eastern Nile- Egypt WEF Nexus Survey – Berga et al. 2017
  15. 15. BN & WN JunctionC63 Sudan Egypt + D46: Hassanb-Dongloa D51: Middle Delta D52: West Delta D50: East Delta D49: Middle Egypt D48: Upper Egypt D47: Toshka D44: Khartoum-Tamaniat D45: Tamaniat- HassanabC71 C70 C63 R24 C72 R25 R26 R27 C73 R28 R29 C74 R30 C75 R31 C76 C77 B1 B2 C78/ C79 B3 C80 C81 B4 B6 B5 C82 Nile DS HAD Aswan I + Aswan II Ensa Nag Hammadi Nile DS Naga Hammadi Nile at Gaafra Nile at Dagash Nile US Assiut Assiut Nile at Hawatka DS Assuit Nile at Baladela M&I DDCairo HAD Nile at El Akhsas Nile US HAD Nile at Donglola Merowe Dal Kajbar Dagash Shereig Nile at Hassanab Sabaloka Nile at Tamaniat Mediterranean Sea Atbara Junction E1 ModelSchematics,MainNileSub-basin Source:BasedonENTRO,MSIOAStudy(2014) Sample Node Link Network: Nile mainstem (ENMOS+)
  16. 16. Tradeoff Analysis Scenarios Scenario Description Full cooperation Basin-wide system optimization Non-cooperation Sectoral tradeoffs Sectoral tradeoff analysis which assumes no cooperation between sectors - HPP Hydropower is prioritized over irrigation - IRRP Irrigation is prioritized over hydropower Transboundary tradeoffs Cross-country tradeoff analysis which assumes no cooperation between countries - ETHP Ethiopia is prioritized over Sudan and Egypt - SUDP Sudan is prioritized over Ethiopia and Egypt - EGYP Egypt is prioritized over Sudan and Ethiopia Berga et al. In preparation
  17. 17. Sectoral tradeoff analysis: Total benefits lower when HP is prioritized 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Ethiopia Sudan+South Sudan Egypt Grand total Total benefit (Million USD) System optimization Hydropower prioritized Irrigation prioritized Berga et al. In preparation
  18. 18. Transboundary tradeoff analysis: Total benefits lower when Egypt is prioritized 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Ethiopia Sudan+South Sudan Egypt Grand total Total benefit (Million USD) System optimization Ethiopia prioritized Sudan prioritized Egypt prioritized Berga et al. In preparation
  19. 19. Conclusions  There are considerable sectoral and transboundary NEXUS tradeoffs in the Eastern Nile Basin  Total economic benefits in the basin are lower in the case of noncooperation (sectoral prioritization)  A hydropower first strategy reduces total economic benefit. If investment in agricultural R&D increase in proportion with investment in hydropower, a focus on hydropower is even less advantageous, as other renewables (wind and solar have substantial potential in the region)  Energy and agricultural commodity trade can generate win-win benefits for the Nile Basin but a change in existing agricultural commodity trade regimes in the Eastern Nile is unlikely to take place in the near to medium future

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