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Sudan and the future of African agriculture: Potential for nexus solutions

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Presented by Claudia Ringler on February 11, 2019

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Sudan and the future of African agriculture: Potential for nexus solutions

  1. 1. Sudan and the Future of African Agriculture: Claudia Ringler Environment and Production Technology Division International Food Policy Research Institute Khartoum University, February 11, 2019 Potential for Nexus Solutions
  2. 2. 2 Drivers of Agricultural Growth in Africa Drivers of Agricultural Growth in Africa
  3. 3. Growth in Populations: Africa Leads (UN medium variant forecast, bn) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2019 2050 2100 Sudan’s pop growth prediction (UN med var, mn) Source: UN DESA (2017)
  4. 4. 44% 56% 65% 35% RURAL URBAN 32% 68% 47% 53% RURAL URBAN Urbanization exerts pressure on food systems (green: rural --- orange: urban) • Despite rapid urbanization, rural population in Sudan will increase by a further 10 million by 2050 (urban by 27 million) • Diet and nutrition transitions taking place due to urbanization Sudan 2020 Global Global Sudan 2050 Source: UN DESA (2017)
  5. 5. Youth unemployment and working poverty persist 25% of Northern Africa’s and 70% of SSA’s youth are either unemployed or working but poor (2016) Source: ILO 2016
  6. 6. Conflicts persist, especially in Africa • Food insecurity and lack of nutrition are cause and consequence of conflict • % of hunger and undernutrition increasingly concentrated in conflict-affected countries • Climate change, epidemics, and food price spikes increase risk of civil conflict Source: Breisinger, Ecker and Trinh Tran 2015 Cross-country correlation between Global Hunger Index and violent civil conflict index, Africa
  7. 7. Agriculture is the key risk factor for our environment, here proxied as planetary boundaries Source: Steffen et al. 2016
  8. 8. Climate Change is a key driver with high uncertainty Sources: IPCC and NBI
  9. 9. Stunted children (millions) Overweight children (millions) Undernourished population (millions) Hunger and undernutrition persist AND alarming rise in overnutrition Source: FAO 2017, UNICEF/WHO/WB 2017 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 Developing countries Africa Asia 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 Developing countries Africa Asia 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Africa Asia World
  10. 10. 13 December 2018 10 Why do we care about food security and nutrition, particularly of children?
  11. 11. Selected nutrition indicators, Sudan  38.2% of children affected by stunting (low height for age) in 2017, up from 34.1% in 2012  often irreversible impacts on lifetime cognitive and learning abilities and huge cost to the economy  16.3% of children affected by wasting in 2017 (low weight for height)—key factors: low income, low maternal education, geography, and gender; Interactions between climatic shocks and conflict contribute to spikes in acute undernutrition in children, including in Darfur, Sudan (28%)  10 million Sudanese undernourished (2015-2017) (~25%)  31% of women of child-bearing age were anemic in 2016  Overweight in children doubled to 3% in 5 years and obesity in adults stands at 7% Source: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. (2018)
  12. 12. 0 10 20 30 40 50 Egypt South Sudan Sudan Kenya Ethiopia 2012 2017 Prevalence of childhood stunting, selected countries, 2012 and 2017 Source: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. (2018)
  13. 13. 13 Trends in Agricultural Production
  14. 14. Africa has the fastest growth in cereal production of any continent since the early 1990s Source: FAOSTAT
  15. 15. But per capita cereal production in Africa is still the lowest in the world, signs of real growth since 2000 Source: FAOSTAT • Per cap production in Africa < than 1960 * Growth driven by Eastern Africa (includes Sudan)
  16. 16. Africa cereal growth still substantially driven by area growth Source: FAOSTAT Average for 2012-2015 Annualized growth rates 2002- 2005 to 2012-2015 Tons Hectares Yield (kg/ ha) Produc- tion Harvested area Yield World 2,737,337,452 716,115,547 3,822 2.32 0.58 1.74 Africa 180,059,533 112,607,418 1,599 3.12 1.35 1.77 Americas 698,420,833 128,128,299 5,451 2.35 0.48 1.86 Asia 1,334,600,630 337,212,821 3,958 2.61 0.67 1.95 Europe 484,461,045 119,481,865 4,055 1.33 -0.12 1.45 Oceania 39,795,411 18,685,144 2,130 1.53 -0.12 1.66
  17. 17. Sub-regional yield growth in Africa: Northern Africa slowing, Eastern Africa picking up growth Source: FAOSTAT
  18. 18. Source: FAOSTAT Average for 2012-2015 Annualized growth rates 2002-2005 to 2012-2015 Region Tons Hectares Yield (kg / hect) Produc- tion Har- vested area Yield Africa 180,059,540 112,607,422 1,599 3.12 1.35 1.77 Sub-Saharan Africa 141,451,409 99,644,682 1,420 3.59 1.47 2.12 Northern Africa 38,608,131 12,962,740 2,978 1.56 0.47 1.09 Eastern Africa 47,959,387 31,766,940 1,510 5.43 1.74 3.68 Middle Africa 9,417,656 9,270,609 1,016 5.03 3.41 1.62 Southern Africa 28,926,097 12,339,261 2,344 2.62 -0.60 3.22 Western Africa 55,148,269 46,267,872 1,192 2.49 1.55 0.94 Largest recent production performance in Eastern Africa
  19. 19. Source: Chatham House Resource Trade Database Agricultural imports are correlated with exports of fossil fuels Exports Imports
  20. 20. Source: Chatham House Resource Trade Database Agricultural trade balance worsened in Northern and overall SSA, only Eastern Africa improved Subregion Exports Imports Net exports Exports Imports Net exports Yearly export growth rate Yearly import growth rate Total change in net exports Africa 29,453 27,929 1,524 59,559 76,226 -16,667 5.9 8.4 -18,191 Northern Africa 4,595 12,493 -7,898 10,805 34,046 -23,242 7.1 8.4 -15,344 Sub-Saharan Africa 24,858 15,436 9,422 48,754 42,179 6,575 5.6 8.4 -2,847 Eastern Africa 4,697 2,835 1,862 12,190 9,381 2,808 7.9 10.0 946 Middle Africa 1,161 1,618 -457 1,702 5,757 -4,054 3.2 10.6 -3,598 Southern Africa 9,839 5,161 4,678 15,643 11,300 4,343 3.9 6.5 -334 Western Africa 9,162 5,823 3,339 19,220 15,742 3,478 6.2 8.3 139 Averages 2000-2004 (constant 2015 US$ 000s) Averages 2012-2016 (constant 2015 US$ 000s) Change, 2000-2004 to 2012- 2016
  21. 21. 21 Future trends Amy Vitale
  22. 22. Modeling Approach: Quantitative Foresight Modeling – IFPRI’s IMPACT Model  Linked climate, water, crop and economic models  Estimates of production, consumption, hunger, and environmental impacts Adapted from: Robinson et al. (2015) "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT); Model description for version 3". IFPRI Discussion Paper. IFPRI: Washington, DC. Projections out to 2050
  23. 23. Maize production, consumption, and net trade (mmt) largely used for human consumption, growing needs for supplying feed markets - Centers of bubbles show indexed area (horizontal) and yield (vertical) growth to 2050 in Africa for REFERENCE (2010 = 1.0) - Bubble sizes scaled to total regional production in 2050 - One-to-one line (red) for reference Expansion of maize production dominated by yield growth Source: IFPRI 2019
  24. 24. Rice production, consumption, and net trade (mmt), of growing interest to African consumers AND producers - Centers of bubbles show indexed area (horizontal) and yield (vertical) growth to 2050 in Africa for REFERENCE (2010 = 1.0) - Bubble sizes scaled to total regional production in 2050 - One-to-one line (red) for reference Expansion of rice production dominated by yield growth Source: IFPRI 2019
  25. 25. Number of hungry people increases to 2030 as a result of climate change, further likely impacts from civil strife Source: Wiebe (2017); FAO, Reality is 240 million hungry people in Africa in 2015-2017
  26. 26. Key Messages 1. Africa & Sudan face very high population growth 2. While urbanization is rapid, Sudan will still add a further 10 million to its rural population---will the country invest adequately in rural growth or focus on the more rapid influx into cities? 3. While per capita production in 2015 was below 1960, growth has picked up in East Africa, driven by a subset of countries, including Ethiopia, which has now for a decade invested heavily in agriculture, including irrigation
  27. 27. Key Messages 4. Agricultural growth will be too slow to cope with rapid population growth. A result will increased net import dependency for food crops these can be paid for with exports of fossil fuels or cash crops 5. Childhood stunting at 38% is unacceptably high in Sudan need a coordinated approach & movement to address this 6. The number of hungry and undernourished will increase at least out to 2030 as a result of low growth + climate change; civil strife and conflict will further increase food insecurity—and the numbers across the region have already been going up for several years, eradicating improvements gained during the prior decade
  28. 28. 13 December 2018 28 Potential for Nexus Solutions
  29. 29. Nexus activities can change the pathway from direct and indirect drivers to sustainability outcomes Fan, 2014
  30. 30. 13 December 2018 30 National Nexus: Energy as the Entry Point
  31. 31. Main Nexus sector agencies: Sudan Sector Name Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture Agriculture Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity Agriculture Agricultural Research Corporation Water Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity Water Ministry of Agriculture Water Dams Implementation Unit Energy Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity Energy Ministry of Energy and Mining/Petroleum and Gas Energy National Center for Energy Research Source: Berga et al. 2017.
  32. 32. Rural energy use changes with economic development Barnes & Floor 1996
  33. 33. Food production depends on clean energy access (and water) 1) Competition between domestic and productive uses of energy (esp. biomass) in some contexts (e.g. Ethiopia) 2) Energy as a requirement for agricultural intensification and to support nutrient-dense crops (irrigation, mechanization, fertilizer) 3) Electrification as a potential catalyst of supply chain development for nutrient-dense but highly perishable irrigated crops (vegetables and fruits)
  34. 34. Energy transitions affect not only agriculture but also the environment (including water) profoundly 1) Access to clean energy for all reduces pressure on deforestation which in turn affects agro-ecosystems, gendered time allocation and—through affecting climate change—everyone on the globe 2) Energy access not only increases agricultural productivity, but reduces pressure on natural resources through enabling precision-agriculture practices (laser land leveling, soil moisture sensors, etc.) and reduces postharvest losses through cooling, storage and transportation of perishable products 3) Access to clean energy, without a strong policy environment, can lead to further environmental degradation (unchecked irrigation development, groundwater depletion, overapplication of chemicals) 4) Many agricultural mitigation activities are either highly water intensive (biofuels) or increase the risk of water depletion and degradation (solar- irrigation)
  35. 35. Large-scale 3.2 million ha Small-scale 14.8 million ha Total 18.0 million ha Source: IFPRI Agricultural transformation will accelerate in areas where electricity and irrigation systems are jointly sited Economic Irrigation potential
  36. 36. (a) Maize & flood irrigation (b) Vegetables & drip irrigation Relative potential of diesel versus solar in SSA depends on climate, crops, irrigation source & technology and energy technology cost Source: IFPRI
  37. 37. Agricultural transformation in Africa accelerates water pollution and associated treatment costs (Ex. nitrogen loadings, absolute 2005, % growth to 2050) Source: Xie and Ringler (2017).
  38. 38. What are key energy technologies for agricultural transformation in Africa that need to be better assessed?  Solar irrigation * Cold storage * Mobile phone chargers  Cooking solutions * Agro-processing * Other rural industries (f.ex. biogas) * Health and other rural  Moisture sensors services  Ag chemicals PRODUCTION POST- HARVEST RURAL OFF- FARM
  39. 39. Examples of Nexus interventions for Sudan 1) Seasonal weather forecasting system can reduce yield losses/ increase yields as inputs, in particular, irrigation water can be applied at the right time 2) Invest in soil moisture sensors and yield sensors in irrigated areas 3) Use biogas from cow manure as a source of cooking, or invest in solar home systems to access to clean energy in rural areas 4) Invest in solar-irrigation WITH governance mechanisms to avoid groundwater depletion 5) Invest in multiple use water systems to support domestic and productive uses 6) Invest in solar cold storage options for milk
  40. 40. 13 December 2018 40 Regional Nexus: The need for Trade and Cooperation
  41. 41. Regional collaboration around water, energy and food is important for future adequate provision of resources Source: Berga et al. 2017.
  42. 42. Ongoing regional cooperation is adequate to minimize tradeoffs and exploit synergies Source: Berga et al. 2017. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Strongly agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly disagree Ethiopia Sudan Egypt
  43. 43. Source: Berga 2018 BN & WN JunctionC63 Sudan Egypt + D46: Hassanb-Dongloa D51: Middle Delta D52: West Delta D50: East Delta D49: Middle Egypt D48: Upper Egypt D47: Toshka D44: Khartoum-Tamaniat D45: Tamaniat- HassanabC71 C70 C63 R24 C72 R25 R26 R27 C73 R28 R29 C74 R30 C75 R31 C76 C77 B1 B2 C78/ C79 B3 C80 C81 B4 B6 B5 C82 Nile DS HAD Aswan I + Aswan II Ensa Nag Hammadi Nile DS Naga Hammadi Nile at Gaafra Nile at Dagash Nile US Assiut Assiut Nile at Hawatka DS Assuit Nile at Baladela M&I DDCairo HAD Nile at El Akhsas Nile US HAD Nile at Donglola Merowe Dal Kajbar Dagash Shereig Nile at Hassanab Sabaloka Nile at Tamaniat Mediterranean Sea Atbara Junction E1 ModelSchematics,MainNileSub-basin Source:BasedonENTRO,MSIOAStudy(2014) Sample Node Link Network: Nile mainstem (ENMOS+)
  44. 44. Tradeoff Analysis Scenarios Scenario Description Full cooperation Basin-wide system optimization Non-cooperation Sectoral tradeoffs Sectoral tradeoff analysis which assumes no cooperation between sectors - HPP Hydropower is prioritized over irrigation - IRRP Irrigation is prioritized over hydropower Transboundary tradeoffs Cross-country tradeoff analysis which assumes no cooperation between countries - ETHP Ethiopia is prioritized over Sudan and Egypt - SUDP Sudan is prioritized over Ethiopia and Egypt - EGYP Egypt is prioritized over Sudan and Ethiopia Source: Berga 2018
  45. 45. Sectoral tradeoff analysis: Total benefits lower when HP is prioritized 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Ethiopia Sudan+South Sudan Egypt Grand total Total benefit (Million USD) System optimization Hydropower prioritized Irrigation prioritized Source: Berga 2018
  46. 46. Transboundary tradeoff analysis: Total benefits lower when Egypt is prioritized (cooperation is optimal solution) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Ethiopia Sudan+South Sudan Egypt Grand total Total benefit (Million USD) System optimization Ethiopia prioritized Sudan prioritized Egypt prioritized Source: Berga 2018
  47. 47. Conclusions—Nexus Solutions 1. Access to clean energy can accelerate agricultural growth 2. Access to clean energy can reduce water use in agriculture or deplete water resources (governance is key), many national NEXUS solutions exist 3. There are considerable sectoral and transboundary NEXUS trade-offs in the Eastern Nile BasinTotal economic benefits in the basin are lower in the case of noncooperation (sectoral prioritization) 4. A hydropower first strategy reduces total economic benefit. If investment in agricultural R&D increase in proportion with investment in hydropower, a focus on hydropower is even less advantageous, as other renewables (wind and solar have substantial potential in the region)
  48. 48. Key Messages-Sudan 1. Need to focus on rural development to support rural livelihoods, address stunting and maintain agricultural and other ecosystems this matters not only for rural areas but for the entire country (i.e. also urban areas) 2. Accelerating access to clean energy is a key step in accelerating agricultural transformation in Sudan 3. Careful irrigation expansion is critical to agricultural growth but requires access to complementary inputs 4. Given the location of Sudan between Ethiopia and Egypt, there are benefits from cooperation with both countries—cooperation outperforms sectoral and national prioritization
  49. 49. Resource Materials Africa Agriculture: IFPRI.org Water-Energy-Food Nexus:  Research Methods Guide: http://www.ifpri.org/publication/research-guide-water- energy-food-nexus-analysis  Knowledge Platform: https://www.water-energy-food.org/nexus-platform-the- water-energy-food-nexus Climate Change and Agriculture: http://www.ifpri.org/program/knowledge-lab- climate-resilient-food-systems Nutrition: https://globalnutritionreport.org/nutrition-profiles/africa/northern- africa/sudan/#profile
  50. 50. Thanks to information and funding provided by 1) Tim Thomas for historic agricultural data for Africa 2) Khalid Siddig and colleagues 3) Global Futures for projections data 4) Helen Berga for her regional tradeoff analyses 5) CGIAR WLE for supporting energy work 6) GIZ / BMZ & EU for supporting Nexus work Thank you for the invitation to the University of Khartoum

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