Presentation by IFPRI senior researcher Mark Rosegrant Head, Environment and Production Technology Division Presented at Global Forum for Innovations in Agriculture (GFIA) in Abu Dhabi, UAE March 10, 2015

1. Analytical
Tools
TO ASSIST CSA
POLICY MAKING
M A R K W . R O S E G R A N T
ENVIRONMENT AND PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY DIVISION
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, WASHINGTON, DC

2. analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
productivity
resilience
/adaptation
low GHG
emission
CLIMATE-SMART
AGRICULTURE
COMPONENTS

3. analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
TECHNOLOGYASSESSMENT
climate
smart?
Yield risk
under CC
Yield bounce
after shock
GHG emission
against baseline
Technology
characterization
CLIMATE-
SMARTNESS
Productivity
Resilience
GHG Emission

4. analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
CLIMATE-
SMARTNESS
Productivity
Resilience
GHG Emission
Overall
Decision-makers will need to
choose technologies or
investments accounting for
tradeoffs.
TECHNOLOGYASSESSMENT
Need for multi-objective decision-making tools
that rationalize the evaluation of choices.

5. analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
WHATDOESCSA MEANFOR…
 the country as a whole?
 other non-ag land-uses?
 the global economy?
ECONOMICFEASIBILITY
ASSESSMENT

6. analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
Economically
viable?
Large-scale effects
+ other land-uses
Wide uptake of
CSA options
Policy
scenario
analysis
CLIMATE-
SMARTNESS
Productivity
Resilience
GHG Emission
Overall
Global
economic
forces
ECONOMICFEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT

7. analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
WHERE
Geospatial
Baseline &
Targeting
WHICH
Commodity
Priority
Setting
WHAT
Technology
Characterization
& Inventory
+
Integrated
Impact
Assessments
SUPPORTINGTOOLS
HOW
Policy
Simulation
& Scenario-
Making Tools

8. analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
POLICY
SIMULATION
EXAMPLE
Simulating the
aggregate
effects of crop
choices by
individual risk-
averse farmers
due to climate
change.

9. analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
AdoptionForum SustainabilityPrioritization
1
2
3
Prioritizing
agricultural
commodities
according to
CSA criteria
Stakeholder
engagement
and scenario
exploration
Economic
effects of
wide-scale
adoption of
CSA
Evaluation of
long-term
economic &
financial
sustainability
POLICY-MAKINGENABLINGENVIRONMENT

10. analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
Rainfall and
Drought
History
Commodity
Priority
Setting Tool
Agritech
Toolbox
SUPPORTINGTOOLS
EXAMPLES

11. analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
CSAINDICATORSFORCOUNTRYLEVEL
EXAMPLES
Water efficient
management
Soil fertility
management
TECHNOLOGY
Road quality and
density
Accuracy of
weather and
climate forecasts
INFRA-
STRUCTURE
Social safety nets
Planning with CC
risk assessment
POLICY

12. analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
CONCLUDING
REMARKS
CSA forces us to shifts the emphasis from
policies that aim at a single targets to policies
that have multiple objectives.
CSA changes the planning time horizon:
policies and analyses necessarily span
long time periods of 20-30 years.

13. analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
CONCLUDING
REMARKS
Therefore, CSA requires the use of
integrated modeling frameworks that
work at multiple geographical scales to:
1) Prioritize investments and provide an
accurate understanding of tradeoffs
2) Design long-term economically and politically
sustainable policies

14. analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
CONCLUDING
REMARKS
More importantly, given
its complexity, CSA
requires an even closer
collaboration between
policy makers and
research community.