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How Does Rising Rural Population Density Affect Smallholder Agriculture? Milu Muyanga

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Policy Seminar “Boserup and Beyond Mounting Land Pressures & Development Strategies in Africa” at IFPRI on 4 September 2014. Presentation by Milu Muyanga, Assistant Professor, International Development Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University.

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How Does Rising Rural Population Density Affect Smallholder Agriculture? Milu Muyanga

  1. 1. HOW DOES RISING RURAL POPULATION DENSITY AFFECT SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE? EVIDENCE FROM ETHIOPIA, KENYA & MALAWI Milu Muyanga, J. Ricker-Gilbert , D. Headey, A. L. Josephson, T.S. Jayne Presentation at the Food Seminar at IFPRI, September 4, 2014, IFPRI Headquarters , Washington DC, USA 10 Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007)
  2. 2. Motivation • Population densities in many sub-Saharan Africa are much higher than they were two decades ago • The rising rural population densities are profoundly affecting farming systems • Diminishing land sizes and limited scope of accessing land • Limited off-farm opportunities • Are increasing population densities inducing innovations aimed at intensifying the use of land? • Consistent with the induced innovation theories of Boserup (1965) and Ruttan and Hayami (1971) 9
  3. 3. Total rural population projections Source: UN Pop Council, 2013 8
  4. 4. Increasing land conflicts-Newspaper Headlines Local analysts point to historical land injustices as the main cause of the 2007 post-election violence and the 2014 killings in the coastal region of Kenya 7
  5. 5. Effects of population density on smallholder-intensification– analytical framework 6
  6. 6. Data sources • Ethiopia: 6 waves of household-level data from the Ethiopian Rural Household Surveys covering 1293 households • Kenya: 5 waves of panel survey data on 1,146 farm households • Malawi: 3 waves of rural farm households; only 1375 households were re-interviewed in the last wave • Geographic Information Systems: Population and land estimates data came from two GIS databases: • Global Rural–Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) • GlobCover 2009 5
  7. 7. RESULTS: ETHIOPIA 4 Household landholding /adult equivalent by population density Kilogram of fertilizer used/ha, by population density
  8. 8. RESULTS: KENYA 3 Figure 1: Fertilizer quantities applied per hectare cultivated 100 150 200 250 50 actual simulated 25% 50% 75% 95% 0 250 500 750 1000 persons/sq km Figure 2: Total value of cash expenditures per ha cultivated 10 12 14 16 18 8 '000KSh/ha actual simulated 25% 50% 75% 95% 0 250 500 750 1000 persons/sq km Figure 4: Net crop income per hectare cultivated 20 40 60 80 actual simulated 25% 50% 75% 95% 0 250 500 750 1000 persons/sq km Figure 5: Net crop income per family labor (resident adults) 15 20 25 30 35 '000KSh actual simulated 25% 50% 75% 95% 0 250 500 750 1000 persons/sq km
  9. 9. RESULTS: MALAWI 2 Fertilizer kg/ha, by pop. den. Gross value of crop output/ha, by pop. den. Farm Income per Adult Equivalent, by pop. den. Value of assets/adult equivalent, by pop. den. 25th percentile 50th percentile 75th percentile 99th percentile 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 0 200 400 600 population / square km of land
  10. 10. Summary of findings • Rural population density is projected to increase by 48% in sub- Saharan Africa in the next 35 years • Population density is endogenous- what are the drivers of population density in sub-Saharan Africa? • Rising population densities are influencing household behavior and farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa • Intensification is not possible beyond some population density thresholds • 13% of the rural population in Kenya live in areas beyond the thresholds • Our results do not explain the reasons for the decline in agricultural intensification • Signs of unsustainable agricultural intensification– reduced fallows; soil mining, etc. 1
  11. 11. Acknowledgements 0

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