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Innovating Agri-food Systems in Asia for Human and Planetary Health
1. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Shenggen Fan | Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
Asian Development Bank | November 6, 2018
INNOVATING AGRI-
FOOD SYSTEMS IN
ASIA FOR HUMAN
AND PLANETARY
HEALTH
2. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Outline
Comprehensive, high-quality research is critical for a
sustainable and healthy food future
Innovations in policies, institutions, and technologies
are imperative to reshape food systems
Despite progress, multiple burdens of malnutrition persist
AND we are not on track for many SDGs
3. Shenggen Fan, November 2018 Source: FAO 2018
Prevalence and number of undernourished worldwide and in Asia
Asia bears the greatest global share of child
stunting and wasting
Source: GNR 2017
Prevalence of adult obesity (BMI≥30), 2016(%)
Source: WHO 2018
Despite progress, multiple burdens of malnutrition persist
Millions
%
627.3
515.1
907.5 820.8
16.8
11.4
14.8
10.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Number of people undernourished Asia
Number of people undernourished World
Prevalence of undernourishment Asia
Prevalence of undernourishment World
Stunting Wasting
4. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Source: UNICEF/WHO/WB 2018
Without accelerated progress, hunger and malnutrition will persist beyond 2030
Source: FAO 2018
Undernourished population (millions)
We are not on track on SDGs
Source: WHO 2018
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Number of people undernourished
Forecast
Upper bound forecast
Lower bound forecast
Children affected by stunting (millions)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Children affected by stunting Forecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Overweight (BMI≥25)
Forecast
Upper bound forecast
Lower bound forecast
Prevalence of adult overweight (%)
5. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Over half of SDGs relate to
food security and nutrition
Reshaped food systems are critical
We must reshape food systems
to deliver on the SDGs
Innovations are imperative to go beyond business-as-usual
Policies, institutions, and technologies
are key to accelerating progress, while
maximizing synergies and minimizing trade-offs
6. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Reform policies to increase availability and
affordability of nutritious foods
7. Shenggen Fan, November 2018 Figure Source: Headey 2017
Fortified infant cereal
Cheapest dark leafy green
Food price differences (calorie price ratio)
Reprioritize investment priorities & reform subsidy policies
Reform subsidies for agricultural inputs and staple crops
• Support incomes of vulnerable groups and production of healthy foods
‒ Prices of nutrient-dense foods rising faster than energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods
(Dizon and Herforth 2018)
2-4 point gap between nutritious food price index (NPI) and food consumer price index
(CPI) during seasonal price hikes in Pakistan and Afghanistan
‒ Foods rich in protein and micronutrients are expensive, particularly in low-income
countries (Headey and Alderman 2018)
Calorie-relative prices compared to staple cereals: >10 times higher for dark leafy
greens globally, >15 times higher for fortified infant cereals in Africa
Prices of healthy foods largely linked with local productivity and value chain efficiency
Increase investment for R&D in more nutritious foods like fruits, vegetables, beans,
dairy, and fish
• Unit increase in dietary diversity reduced calorie and protein deficiencies by 11% and
23% respectively in Eastern India (Kumar et al. 2016)
• Consuming dairy, eggs, and meat/fish associated with over 6 percentage pt. drop in
stunting rates among children in 49 countries across 5 regions (Headey, Hirvonen, and Hoddinott 2018)
8. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Enhance nutrition-targeted social protection
• Combining transfer programs with behavior change
communication can improve child nutrition
‒ In Bangladesh, cash transfers accompanied by high-quality BCC improved children’s consumption of multiple-micronutrient
powders or iron supplements in the last week by 22 percentage pts (Hoddinott et al. 2018)
• BUT requires complementary policies and programs to link knowledge and behavior (Kramer 2017, Menon et al. 2017)
Promote nutritious, sustainable, and healthy diets
• Tax emissions-intensive foods (e.g. meat and dairy) – this could
avoid more than 100,000 deaths in 2020 from reduced dietary and
weight-related risk factors (Springmann et al. 2016)
• Tax nutrient-poor foods – e.g. Mexico’s sugar sweetened
beverage (SSB) taxes
‒ SSB purchase declined by 6% on average
‒ 9% decline for lower social economic status households
Figure Source: Colchero et al. 2016
Incentivize promotion of healthy diets through taxation &
social protection
Impact of SSB taxes in Mexico
9. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
• Nearly a third of the world’s food is lost or wasted – significant costs to food security,
economies, and the environment
• Recent commitments and successes indicate a critical first step
‒ Technical Platform on the Measurement and Prevention of Food Loss and Waste (TPFLW):
IFPRI and FAO to align Food Loss Index data collection with improved food loss measurement methodology along food
value chain
‒ EU-REFRESH:
Develops strategic agreements and technological innovations to reduce food waste with governments, business and local
stakeholders in Spain, Germany, Hungary and the Netherlands
• Supporting effective, low-cost policies and technologies will be important
‒ Promote improved packaging and dry chain development
400 smallholders in Burkina Faso and Uganda reduced food losses by nearly 98% through proven post-harvest handling
techniques and storage technologies (Costa 2014)
‒ Scale up innovative cold chain development
Zero energy cool chamber (ZECC) in India found to lower storage temperature by 11°C (Lal Basediya, Samuel, and Beera 2013)
Reduce food loss and waste with data and knowledge
10. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Support inclusive institutions and strengthen
accountability
11. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Strengthen institutions to close gender gaps
Reform institutions and governance to ensure women’s
empowerment
• Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI)
measures gender parity in:
‒ Decisions about agricultural production
‒ Access to and decision-making power over productive resources
‒ Control over use of income
‒ Leadership in the community
‒ Time use
Strengthen resource rights
‒ Rwanda: Land registration programs doubled likelihood of household investment in longer-term
natural resource management, such as soil conservation (Meinzen-Dick et al. 2017)
12. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Enhance institutional capacity on nutrition
Support capacity building on nutrition for universities,
government agencies, and extension services
• Improving institutional capacity on nutrition can help address nutrition-
related information asymmetry and facilitate access to necessary assets
for households (Davis, Babu, and Blom 2014)
• Case studies in India: Review agricultural curriculum to include nutrition
for extension officers (Babu et al. 2016)
‒ Integrate nutrition as an outcome of agricultural production
processes
‒ Provide nutrition training for midcareer extension workers to fill
current vacuum of nutrition content in extension services
‒ Endorsement of nutrition curriculum by central and local
government is important to incentivize universities
13. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
• Coordinate across government sectors on
nutrition (health, agriculture, finance, etc.)
• Use health and nutrition as performance
outcomes for various levels of government
• Enhance monitoring and accountability
with data
NEPAD’s Africa Nutrition Scorecard
‒ Aims to provide a measurement tool on the progress
made at country level to effectively reduce
malnutrition in Africa
Promote effective governance mechanisms
Figure source: NEPAD 2015
Africa Nutrition Scorecard
15. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Picture sources: IRRI, New Agriculturist, and Zen Gardner
Photos: AgriLife, ICRISAT, CGIAR
• Crop-sensing technologies for efficient fertilizer use (e.g. Greenseeker)
‒ Handheld crop sensor assessing plant nitrogen needs increased profit by
$37/hectare and avoided over 9,500 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions for
wheat farmers in Yaqui Valley, Mexico (CIMMYT)
• Precision agriculture for sustainable yield enhancements
‒ Microdosing in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso saw millet yields increase by over
50% & better water absorption (ICRISAT)
• Improved, climate-resilient varieties
‒ Cassava varieties that are early maturing, pest- and drought-resistant
increased yields by over 60% in Nigeria (IITA)
‒ Disease-resistant lentil varieties increased yields by 27% in Bangladesh
(ICARDA)
Invest in evidence-based technologies
16. Shenggen Fan, November 2018 Photos: HarvestPlus
• Biofortification
‒ Vitamin- and mineral-rich crops grown and consumed in over
30 countries
‒ More than 30 million people are consuming one or more of
12 biofortified crops globally (HarvestPlus)
‒ Girls and boys consuming biofortified pearl millet in India saw
greater improvement in some cognitive performance (attention
and memory) than those consuming non-fortified millet (Scott et al. 2018)
Support nutrition-driven & nutrition-sensitive technologies
Iron beans Vit. A maize Iron pearl
millet
Zinc wheat
Vit. A
cassava
Vit. A orange
sweet potato
Zinc rice
17. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Picture sources: IRRI, New Agriculturist, and Zen GardnerFigures and Photos: WEF, NIH 2018
• Alternative proteins to reduce GHGs, environmental impact, health risks
‒ Production of cultured meat involves up to 96% lower GHG emissions and
water use, and 99% lower land use depending on conventional meat product
compared (Thottathil, Jayasekaran, and Othman 2016; Toumisto 2011)
• Gene sequencing and editing for seed improvements
‒ Sequenced crop genomes could improve agriculture in challenging climates
• Big data and analytics to lower transaction costs, improve monitoring
(e.g. CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture 2017-2022)
‒ Platform to lead in organizing open data, convening partners, and
demonstrating the power of big data analytics
• Empower breeding programs targeting developing countries
(e.g. CGIAR Excellence in Breeding Platform)
‒ Draws innovations from public and private sectors to provide access to
cutting-edge tools, services and best practices, training and practical advice
Scale up new & established multiple-win technologies
18. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Comprehensive, high-quality research is
critical for a sustainable and healthy
food future
19. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Food industry is expanding, especially in
developing countries
• Increased consolidation and vertical coordination
• Modernization and expansion of food sector, particularly
at midstream stages
‒ Opportunities for job creation, diet diversification,
increased food safety
• Expansion of supermarkets changing nature of food
distribution
‒ By mid-2000s supermarkets controlled up to 50% of food
market in Southeast Asia and Central America
• ICTs and online distribution channels continue to change
market organization and access to food
Source: IFPRI 2018; Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017
Global food and agribusiness in 2015
estimated to account for
• $5 trillion value
• 10% of global consumer spending
• 40% of employment
Sources: Goedde, Horii, and Sanghvi 2015
Priority research areas
Food industries for people and planet
20. Shenggen Fan, November 2018 Source: Ruel et al. 2017
• Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase
is concentrated in Asia and Africa
‒ China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900
million urban residents
• Burdens of malnutrition shifting from rural areas
to urban areas
• Rapid urbanization and changing diets are
increasing pressure on food systems
• Research needed on:
‒ Characteristics of urban life driving challenges and
opportunities for food security and nutrition
‒ Urban food systems, environments, and patterns
‒ Urban agriculture
‒ Governance of the informal food and retail sector
World East Asia Europe
Historical changes in diet composition
(kcal/capita/day)
North America South Asia Africa
Source: FAO 2018
Priority research areas
Urban food security and nutrition
21. Shenggen Fan, November 2018 Source: Campbell et al. 2017
Key to scale up investments in climate
resilience and agri-food systems approaches
for improved health and nutrition outcomes
Agriculture is pushing planetary boundaries Under BAU, agriculture will almost reach 2°C target
emission for all sectors in 2050 (~21 GtCO2eyr-1)
Source: Bajželj et al. 2014
BAU
2° target
by 2050
2009 emissions
from agriculture
CT1 = Current yield trend
CT2 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction
CT3 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction &
Healthy diets
YG1 = Yield gap closure (sustainable intensification)
YG2 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction
YG3 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction &
Healthy diets
Priority research areas
Climate-resilient food systems
22. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Upcoming global learning event bringing
together decision makers, practitioners,
researchers, and other stakeholders
Break the silos: Cooperation and mutual learning
Editor's Notes
Photo: Market in Malaysia, https://www.flickr.com/photos/ibnhusin/5025318638/
vegetable farm in Thade, Nepal. The Decentralized Rural Infrastructure and Livelihood Project (ADB)
https://www.flickr.com/photos/asiandevelopmentbank/8425065219/in/album-72157632638818236/
https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/1E8022AF54A6C6EB21801B61FCD9C54C/S1368980017004232a.pdf/randomized_control_trials_demonstrate_that_nutritionsensitive_social_protection_interventions_increase_the_use_of_multiplemicronutrient_powders_and_iron_supplements_in_rural_preschool_bangladeshi_children.pdf
https://www.ifpri.org/publication/cooking-contests-healthier-recipes-impacts-nutrition-knowledge-and-behaviors-Bangladesh
https://www.fasebj.org/doi/abs/10.1096/fasebj.31.1_supplement.165.6
Colchero et al https://www.bmj.com/content/352/bmj.h6704
Lal Basediya, A., Samuel, D. V. K., & Beera, V. (2013). Evaporative cooling system for storage of fruits and vegetables - a review. Journal of Food Science and Technology, 50(3), 429–442. http://doi.org/10.1007/s13197-011-0311-6
https://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/special_initiatives/WFP265205.pdf
ILRI Dairy producers and processors in Bhadrack, Odisha State, India
https://www.flickr.com/photos/ilri/25726240715
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0197995#sec006
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X1730505X#bb0300
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919215000202?via%3Dihub
ali et al https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387813001818
Photo; USAID-Tanzania https://www.flickr.com/photos/usaid_images/5842086033/in/photolist-ovvDBA-oNHtu6-cVqUUm-oJatX8-owtGFr-bz3qYo-bvpXzQ-ejrHs6-ovzxWM-cVqV83-9UfdDg-9UfdAM-oRvKaz-8SmNDo-oqLcLW-oPLkqi-cVqWQC-9EfBhR-bJjL2H-aviThY-bhgH76-bJjKVg-gK4xFh-pj3hk8-oFmDXh-bvpXx7-oHyNS3-cVqVRW-9Ufdyn-orSTj4-or6YMa-fV7Ltm-ejxr6C-bvpXN7-bvpXKQ-ayZ2cG-bMX6Gr-bhgH9v-yDQE2S-utomRL-tyFSDy
Plant samples in the gene bank, part of CIAT's Genetic Resources program, at the institution's headquarters in Colombia.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/ciat/4331068942/in/album-72157623402015022/
Greenseeker:
https://ccafs.cgiar.org/research-highlight/farmers-and-climate-profit-more-precise-fertilizer-management#.W38M1ehKiUn
https://ccafs.cgiar.org/publications/greenseeker-handheld-research-brief-farmer-technology-adoption-and-disadoption#.W38OkuhKiUk
Microdosing http://www.icrisat.org/wp-content/uploads/Fertilizer-microdosing-brief-2.pdf
Cassava https://ispc.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/pdf/ispc_brief_64_impact_cassava_nigeria.pdf
Lentil https://ispc.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/pdf/ispc_brief_63_lentils_0.pdf
https://academic.oup.com/jn/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jn/nxy113/5054991
New Rice for Africa (Nerica), a drought-resistant, high-yielding, protein-rich variety
https://croplife.org/case-study/importance-of-herbicides-for-no-till-agriculture-in-south-america/
http://www.harvestplus.org/knowledge-market/in-the-news/driving-impact-harvestplus-annual-report-2016
Greenseeker:
https://ccafs.cgiar.org/research-highlight/farmers-and-climate-profit-more-precise-fertilizer-management#.W38M1ehKiUn
https://ccafs.cgiar.org/publications/greenseeker-handheld-research-brief-farmer-technology-adoption-and-disadoption#.W38OkuhKiUk
Cassava https://ispc.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/pdf/ispc_brief_64_impact_cassava_nigeria.pdf
Lentil https://ispc.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/pdf/ispc_brief_63_lentils_0.pdf
https://academic.oup.com/jn/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jn/nxy113/5054991
New Rice for Africa (Nerica), a drought-resistant, high-yielding, protein-rich variety
https://croplife.org/case-study/importance-of-herbicides-for-no-till-agriculture-in-south-america/
http://www.harvestplus.org/knowledge-market/in-the-news/driving-impact-harvestplus-annual-report-2016
Greenseeker:
https://ccafs.cgiar.org/research-highlight/farmers-and-climate-profit-more-precise-fertilizer-management#.W38M1ehKiUn
https://ccafs.cgiar.org/publications/greenseeker-handheld-research-brief-farmer-technology-adoption-and-disadoption#.W38OkuhKiUk
https://academic.oup.com/jn/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jn/nxy113/5054991
New Rice for Africa (Nerica), a drought-resistant, high-yielding, protein-rich variety
https://croplife.org/case-study/importance-of-herbicides-for-no-till-agriculture-in-south-america/
http://www.harvestplus.org/knowledge-market/in-the-news/driving-impact-harvestplus-annual-report-2016
vegetable farm in Thade, Nepal. The Decentralized Rural Infrastructure and Livelihood Project (ADB)
https://www.flickr.com/photos/asiandevelopmentbank/8425065219/in/album-72157632638818236/