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Implications of the Financial Crisis
     for Developing Countries

                 Joachim von Braun
      International...
Food prices: higher levels and the spike

                 800                               Price spike

                ...
Food and financial crises linkages in
                         developing countries




        Food crisis               ...
Recession scenarios 2005-2020
                                          2005-


     Scenarios
     baseline: econ. growth...
Recession Scenarios with IMPACT model

                                                                                   ...
Financial crisis and depression - issues
                       for discussion
       Impacts on / linkages among…
       ...
Financial crisis and depression - issues
                       for discussion

       What policy implications?
       - ...
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Implications of the Financial crisis for Developing Countries

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Joachim von Braun, Director General, (IFPRI)
30th April 2009, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C.

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
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Implications of the Financial crisis for Developing Countries

  1. 1. Implications of the Financial Crisis for Developing Countries Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute Introduction to a panel discussion at IFPRI April 30 2009 30,
  2. 2. Food prices: higher levels and the spike 800 Price spike Corn Wheat Rice 600 on US$/to 400 200 0 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: IFPRI, Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009.
  3. 3. Food and financial crises linkages in developing countries Food crisis Financial  crisis risis Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009
  4. 4. Recession scenarios 2005-2020 2005- Scenarios baseline: econ. growth as in past years 1: R 1 Recession: econ. growth f ll by 2-3% i th falls b 2-3%, agric. investment maintained 2: Recession: econ. growth falls by 2-3%, 2- agric. investment reduced g Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009
  5. 5. Recession Scenarios with IMPACT model 275 250 Non-recession Non- Maize price Same-investment Same- (left (l ft ) 250 200 Low- Low-investment 225 on US$/to 150 200 100 Malnourished children (right) 175 Million 50 150 n 0 125 2005 2010 2015 2020 Recession scenarios with and without agric agric. investment action Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: von Braun, Rosegrant, IFPRI IMPACT, Oct. 2008.
  6. 6. Financial crisis and depression - issues for discussion Impacts on / linkages among… - Macro-economic (exchange rates, inflation, Macro- fiscal) - Growth, incl. rural and agricultural growth - Employment, migration, and remittances - Trade - Finance credit, investment (domestic FDI) Finance, credit (domestic, - Poverty and food security Regional and country specific differences and transmissions Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009
  7. 7. Financial crisis and depression - issues for discussion What policy implications? - Stimulus packages, - Stabilization, - Regulation, - Social protection Who what? - Government - Corporate - Aid agencies g - NGOs Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009

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