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IFPRI-Bangladesh "Using the BIHS Data to Support Agriculture, Nutrition, and Social Protection Policies in Bangladesh"

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IFPRI Country Representative for Bangladesh Dr. Akhter Ahmed presents panel data from IFPRI's Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) in New Delhi, India.

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IFPRI-Bangladesh "Using the BIHS Data to Support Agriculture, Nutrition, and Social Protection Policies in Bangladesh"

  1. 1. Using the BIHS Data to support Agriculture, Nutrition, and Social Protection Policies in Bangladesh Akhter Ahmed IFPRI Country Representative for Bangladesh PHND Retreat | Alwar, Rajasthan, India | 16 March 2018
  2. 2. Created a comprehensive database  IFPRI-PRSSP’s Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS): most comprehensive, nationally representative rural household survey to date. Largest panel survey.  4 unique features of data collection: 1. plot-level agricultural production 2. individual food intakes of all HH members 3. anthropometry measurements of all HH members 4. data to measure women’s empowerment in agriculture index (WEAI)  BIHS sampling is statistically representative  nationally of rural Bangladesh  rural areas for each of the 7 administrative divisions  USAID-supported Feed the Future Zone in southern Bangladesh 1
  3. 3. BIHS: Big data, big impact  Downloads of 2011 BIHS dataset: 600 (2013)  20,000+ (now)  Downloads of 2015 BIHS dataset: 149,248 (now)  Diverse users across 6 continents 2
  4. 4. What factors affect farmers’ income? Using random effects panel regression and IFPRI BIHS data, results show that farmers’ income tends to increase if:  HH male head and female spouse have at least secondary school education  HH male head and female spouse have access to commercial loans  Women are more empowered (measured by WEAI)  Non-farm income share increases  Have access to electricity (solar panel or national grid) and own cell phone  Domestic and international remittances increase Farmers’ income tends to decrease when:  Share of cropped land under rice cultivation increases
  5. 5. Most farmers grow one crop – Rice 4 54.4 20.1 12.5 5.9 3.9 51.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1 2 3 4 5 Only rice Percentageoffarmers Number of crops grown in 2011 Source: IFPRI 2012 Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS)
  6. 6. Overwhelming dominance of rice in diet Share of nutrient from rice of total nutrient intake 71 57 62 44 78 67 70 52 63 46 52 36 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Food energy (calorie) Protein Zinc Iron Percentoftotalnutrientintake All Poorest 20% Richest 20% Source: IFPRI BIHS 2011/12 5
  7. 7. Crop diversity increased: Simpson diversification index, by division 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.27 0.27 0.19 0.05 0.21 0.29 0.18 0.23 0.30 0.28 0.22 0.04 0.24 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet Bangladesh SimpsonIndex Axis Title 2012 2015 The Simpson diversification index is calculated as 𝑆𝐷𝐼 = 1 − 𝑖=1 𝑛 𝑃𝑖 2 , where Pi is the proportionate area of the ith crop in gross cropped area. 6
  8. 8. 7 Household diet quality improved (Estimated WFP’s Food Consumption Score: 0-112) Average FCS Percentage of households with low FCS (<42) 23.1 8.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 2011/12 2015 Percent 56.4 66.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2011/12 2015 Foodconsumptionscore Source: IFPRI BIHS 2011/12 and 2015
  9. 9. Proportion of people who have not consumed food groups in past 7 days declined Average food consumption frequency hides severity 0.0 0.4 43.8 52.0 65.2 4.5 0.8 41.2 0.0 0.0 29.3 23.0 47.4 2.4 0.2 23.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Percentageofpeoplewithoutconsumption offoodgroupinpast7days 2011/12 2015 Source: IFPRI BIHS 2011/12 and 2015 8
  10. 10. What factors affect diet diversity? Using random effects panel regression, we estimated determinants of diet diversity using two different measures – FCS and HDDS. We obtain similar results from both regressions. We find that diet diversity improves if:  Household male head and female spouse have higher levels of education  Agricultural diversity increases: Household grew higher number of non rice food crops last year  Women are more empowered (measured by WEAI)  Rice price increases  Household have higher number of milking cows and are engaged in fisheries  Non-farm income share increases; have access to electricity, own cell phone and have higher asset holdings. 9
  11. 11. A paradox: stunting is highest in regions of lowest poverty, and vice versa 10 Child stunting Poverty Source: WFP 2012
  12. 12.  Sylhet Division: lowest women’s empowerment, second highest income  Barisal Division: highest women’s empowerment, second lowest income Paradox is partly explained by regional difference in women’s empowerment 11Source: IFPRI BIHS 2015 30 28 27 20 20 12 11 23 0 10 20 30 40 Percentageofwomen
  13. 13. IFPRI BIHS data show:  58% of girls in rural areas get married before age 18  Adolescent girls aged <19 account for 36% of all child births in rural Bangladesh Early marriage Early pregnancy  Low birthweight Stunting High rate of adolescent pregnancies is associated with stunting in Bangladesh 58.3 40.8 39.8 34.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 <15 15-16 17-18 19-20 Stuntingprevalence(%) Age groups (years) Age at child birth and rate of stunting Source: IFPRI BIHS 2015 Source: DHS 2014
  14. 14. 13 Males have higher calorie intake for all age groups 1558 2244 2832 2740 2390 1535 2067 2416 2297 1910 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 5-<10 10-<18 18-<40 40-<65 ≥65 Percapitadailycalorieintake(kcal/day) Age group Male Female Source: IFPRI BIHS 2011/12
  15. 15. 14 But females have slightly higher calorie adequacy (taking individual’s activity levels into account) 84.4 93.7 85.3 86.6 90.190.3 93.8 86.7 87.4 95.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 5-<10 years 10-<18 years 18-<40 years 40-<65 years ≥65 years Calorieadequacy(%) Age group Male Female Source: IFPRI BIHS 2011/12
  16. 16. 15 33.6 35.6 25.1 27.4 46.0 31.2 26.3 24.4 31.1 49.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 5-<10 10-<18 18-<40 40-<65 ≥65 Prevalenceofunderweight(%) Age group Male Female Source: IFPRI BIHS 2011/12 Prevalence of underweight is higher among male, except for older adults (measured by BMI with age- and gender-specific cutoffs)
  17. 17. 16 Prevalence of overweight in adults increases as income increases (measured by BMI age-specific cutoffs) 2.6 3.2 5.2 8.5 10.8 6.0 4.7 8.6 7.9 11.2 18.1 9.6 0 5 10 15 20 1st Quintile (Poorest) 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile 5th Quintile (Richest) All Prevalenceofoverweight(%) Per capita household expenditure quintile (proxy for income) Male Female Source: IFPRI BIHS 2011/12
  18. 18. Targeting effectiveness of major safety net programs: World Bank used the results for revamping safety net program IFPRI 2011/12 BIHS data 17 31 24 22 16 8 18 19 26 22 15 27 24 22 19 8 31 26 25 14 4 35 23 25 13 3 37 23 16 20 5 37 24 18 14 7 49 23 21 6 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1 (poorest) 2 3 4 5 (richest) Percentofhouseholds Primary School Stipend Secondary education stipend Old Age Allowance GR OMS VGD VGF EGPP
  19. 19. 18 Policy Considerations
  20. 20. Build synergies across 3 components of food security Food Security Utilization Availability Access Nutrition-Sensitive Agriculture Nutrition-Sensitive Social Protection
  21. 21. Policy considerations: Nutrition-sensitive agriculture (1 of 2)  Promote agricultural diversity:  Reduce risk of high-value, high nutritive value food production via contract farming, agricultural credit, etc.  Create an enabling policy environment for the private sector for agricultural value chains development.  Invest in research on productivity of rice, non-rice crops, livestock, and fisheries.  Promote rice intensification and agricultural diversification via agricultural extension. 20
  22. 22. Policy considerations: Nutrition-sensitive agriculture (2 of 2)  Promote biofortified crop production  HarvestPlus and BRRI developed 4 varieties of zinc-fortified rice.  HarvestPlus is also working with BARI on biofortified lentil and sweet potatoes.  Ministry of Food through its Public Food Distribution System (PFDS) can procure zinc-fortified rice from farmers at a premium price, which can incentivize farmers to grow biofortified rice.  Promote distribution of biofortified crops in safety nets  PFDS can create institutional demand for biofortification by distributing zinc-fortified rice to safety net programs as PFDS outlets. 21
  23. 23. Policy considerations: Nutrition-sensitive social protection (1 of 2)  Revamp existing safety net programs:  Add nutrition BCC to social protection.  Distribute fortified rice (pushti chal) through the Vulnerable Group Development (VGD) program and the new Khaddya Bandhob (Food Friendly) Program.  Introduce school feeding program in secondary schools:  School feeding program in Bangladesh currently operates only in primary schools.  Introducing school feeding program in secondary schools is a promising platform to target nutrition interventions to reach adolescents, particularly girls. 22
  24. 24. Policy Considerations: Nutrition-sensitive social protection (2 of 2)  Improve targeting:  Target the poor  Target geographically: coastal belts, urban slums, low income areas.  Target vulnerable population groups: using a lifecycle approach (adolescent girls, pregnant and lactating women).  Looking forward, design evidence-based safety nets to improve nutrition outcomes:  GoB has committed to introduce a national Child Benefit Program under the National Social Security Strategy (NSSS). IFPRI and WFP are currently discussing with the Government on the design, which may include high quality nutrition BCC and targeting adolescent girls, and pregnant and lactating women. 23
  25. 25.  Prevent early marriage of girls  Pregnancy in girls who are still growing leads to competition between the mother and the fetus for access to nutrients, a battle which the fetus invariably loses, which leads to low birthweight.  Low birthweight is strongly associated with child stunting.  IFPRI’s qualitative results found that girls marry early due to (1) harassment by male youth, and (2) avoid paying higher dowry. A massive social campaign is needed to increase the age of marriage, as well as to postpone pregnancy of those girls who do marry early. To delay pregnancy after marriage, promote effective family planning. 24 Policy considerations: Prevent early marriage

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