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2017 GFPR Overview
Food and Nutrition Security under Rapid Urbanization
Nutrition
Transition
Value ChainsUrban Hunger
Info...
Looking back at 2016
A glimmer of hope
• Global extreme poverty and hunger rates declined
• Food prices remained low
• 203...
?
Political changes
Stagnant economic
growth
Rising inequality
Ongoing conflicts
Continued climate and
environmental chall...
Urbanization in the
spotlight
Projected urban share
of global population
Urban
67%
20502014
Urban
54%
Growth of urban popu...
• Urban growth creates opportunities for rural producers
• Rural-urban linkages help propel economic development,
food sec...
Example of activities enhancing
rural-urban linkages
Benefits
Processing &
storage facilities Reduced food loss Increased ...
Rural-urban linkages
Lessons learned
• Improved infrastructure in the Red River Delta in Viet Nam
o Better road and transp...
Rural-urban linkages
Policy and research needs
Graziano da Silva and Fan 2017
• How can policy coordination between rural ...
Urban hunger
Growing cities, new
challenges
• Burdens of malnutrition are shifting to urban areas
o One in three stunted c...
Urban hunger
Policy and research needs
Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017
• What is the extent of poverty, food insecurity, and...
Nutrition transition
Urbanization and the
nutrition transition
Hawkes, Harris, and Gillespie 2017
• A “nutrition transitio...
Nutrition transition
NOURISHING policy framework
• Ten potential actions, three policy
areas
o Food environments
o Food sy...
Nutrition transition
Policy and research needs
Hawkes, Harris, and Gillespie 2017
• What are people eating and how is the ...
Agricultural value chains
How cities reshape food
systems
Minten, Reardon, and Chen 2017
• Drivers of change: Increased co...
Agricultural value chains
Transport costs and adoption of modern
technologies in Ethiopia
Agricultural value chains
Policy and research needs
Minten, Reardon, and Chen 2017
• What is the impact of growth in post-...
Governance of informal markets
Informal food markets are
key in African cities
• In Africa, where urbanization is most rap...
Governance of informal markets
Governments often focus on control, regulation, or
eradication of urban informal food econo...
Governance of informal markets
Policy and research needs
• What tools can institutionalize regular engagement between
loca...
Regional and national developments
Africa
• Slow, uneven progress in poverty,
hunger, and malnutrition reduction
• Drought...
Regional developments: Africa
Average annual GDP growth,
2000-2014 and 2015-2016
• Slow but steady progress in poverty, hu...
Regional developments: Middle
East and North Africa
Food import dependency, agricultural value
added, and city growth in M...
Regional developments: Central Asia
Total remittance inflows from Russia
(2010-2016, quarters 1-3)• Adjusting to external ...
Regional developments: South Asia
• Fastest regional economic growth in world (7.1% in 2016)
o Yet South Asia is home to 3...
Regional developments: South Asia
Growth rates in GDP and agricultural GDP in South Asia
2003-2015
Urban population as a p...
Regional developments: East Asia
Consumption share in terms of expenditures by product
in rural and urban areas of East As...
Regional developments: Latin America
and the Caribbean
Inequality trends in LAC subregions
2000-2014
• Challenges in 2016
...
Food policy indicators
Agricultural Science and
Technology Indicators
ASTI FPRCI GHI
IMPACT SPEED TFP
Food Policy Research...
Agricultural Science and Technology
Indicators
Investment in agricultural research in most developing
countries fall below...
Agricultural Science and Technology
Indicators
A generation gap threatens future agricultural research
ASTI
Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators FPRCI
Research capacity varies—even
within developing regions
Number of publicati...
Global Hunger Index GHI
Hunger is declining
but still serious in
South Asia and Africa
south of the Sahara
Global Hunger Index
Similar scores reflect different challenges
South Asia faces higher child stunting, while Africa south...
International Model for Policy Analysis
of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
IMPACT
Demand for food will
grow, and compos...
International Model for Policy Analysis
of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
Demand for
cereals will grow
most rapidly in...
International Model for Policy Analysis
of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
Risk of hunger
projected to
decline to 5%
gl...
Statistics of Public Expenditure for
Economic Development
SPEED
Developing
countries spend
less on agriculture,
but the ga...
Statistics of Public Expenditure for
Economic Development
Spending patterns differ across developing regions
SPEED
Total Factor Productivity TFP
Output per worker doubled from 1991 to 2013,
with 70% of growth explained by TFP
Total Factor Productivity
TFP growth rates differ across regions
TFP
Urbanization presents
opportunities for both
rural and urban areas
to end hunger and
malnutrition
Global Food Policy Report 2017
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Global Food Policy Report 2017

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This year’s report looks at the impact of rapid urban growth on food security and nutrition, and considers how food systems can be reshaped to benefit both urban and rural populations.

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Global Food Policy Report 2017

  1. 1. 2017 GFPR Overview Food and Nutrition Security under Rapid Urbanization Nutrition Transition Value ChainsUrban Hunger Informal Markets Regional Developments Food Policy Indicators Rural-Urban Linkages
  2. 2. Looking back at 2016 A glimmer of hope • Global extreme poverty and hunger rates declined • Food prices remained low • 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Paris Agreement & ICN2 follow-up began implementation • Urbanization elevated in global agenda
  3. 3. ? Political changes Stagnant economic growth Rising inequality Ongoing conflicts Continued climate and environmental challenges Looking forward to 2017 Great uncertainties Looming famines in Northern Nigeria, Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan Persistent hunger and malnutrition
  4. 4. Urbanization in the spotlight Projected urban share of global population Urban 67% 20502014 Urban 54% Growth of urban population in major regions
  5. 5. • Urban growth creates opportunities for rural producers • Rural-urban linkages help propel economic development, food security, and nutrition • Broken value chains and poor coordination weaken linkages, hold back progress Rural-urban linkages Rural-urban linkages are crucial for ending hunger and malnutrition Graziano da Silva and Fan 2017
  6. 6. Example of activities enhancing rural-urban linkages Benefits Processing & storage facilities Reduced food loss Increased food diversity Improved coordination & planning More labor & market opportunities for smallholders Land use mgmt & improved food security Leveraging intermediate towns & cities Increased scale of & access to markets Improved food access & quality Rural-urban linkages Strong links for achieving improved food systems and multiple SDGs Graziano da Silva and Fan 2017
  7. 7. Rural-urban linkages Lessons learned • Improved infrastructure in the Red River Delta in Viet Nam o Better road and transport systems, communications infrastructure, and connections to input suppliers spurred agricultural intensification and crop diversification • Role of small- and medium-sized towns and cities in Ethiopia o Improvements to access roads, ICT access, and market infrastructure helped small towns become centers for agricultural input and produce sales • Global value chain development and urban growth in Ghana o Expansion of cocoa production, processing, and trade raised farm incomes and stimulated urban economic activity through increased trade and business services Graziano da Silva and Fan 2017
  8. 8. Rural-urban linkages Policy and research needs Graziano da Silva and Fan 2017 • How can policy coordination between rural and urban be improved? • How can value chains be made more inclusive and efficient? • How can small- and medium-sized towns best be leveraged to facilitate social and economic links? • How can rural investments be better targeted? • What policies and programs on social protection can improve resilience in rural and urban areas?
  9. 9. Urban hunger Growing cities, new challenges • Burdens of malnutrition are shifting to urban areas o One in three stunted children lives in an urban area o Rapid increases in overweight and obesity concentrated in urban areas • The urban poor face unique challenges o Dependence on cash and the informal sector o Vulnerability to income & price shocks o Limited access to basic services Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017
  10. 10. Urban hunger Policy and research needs Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017 • What is the extent of poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition in urban areas? • What is the quality of urban diets, what are the nutrient gaps, and what are the dietary patterns that increase health risks? • How can we best tailor programs and policies to support the urban poor in tackling the distinct challenges of urban life?
  11. 11. Nutrition transition Urbanization and the nutrition transition Hawkes, Harris, and Gillespie 2017 • A “nutrition transition” is underway o From consumption of coarse grains, staple cereals, and pulses to consumption of more animal-source foods, sugar, fats and oils, refined grains, and processed foods • Overweight and obesity & other diet-related diseases are rising • Urban food environments pose challenges and opportunities o Easier access to unhealthy diets AND nutritious foods (for those who can afford them)
  12. 12. Nutrition transition NOURISHING policy framework • Ten potential actions, three policy areas o Food environments o Food systems o Behavior change • Recent actions include o “Warning” labels on foods with high fat, sugar, and salt in Chile and Ecuador o Restrictions on food marketing to children in Mexico, Korea, and Taiwan, China Source: This material has been reproduced from the World Cancer Research Fund International NOURISHING Framework and Policy Database, www.wcrf.org/NOURISHING
  13. 13. Nutrition transition Policy and research needs Hawkes, Harris, and Gillespie 2017 • What are people eating and how is the urban food environment shaping their choices? • How can food retailers and services make a greater contribution toward creating an enabling environment for good nutrition? • What experiences with national and municipal-level policies to address the nutrition transition can help inform policy makers regarding, for example, o Food-labeling requirements to provide consumers with more information o Taxes on less healthy foods o School meal programs o Affordable “popular” restaurants
  14. 14. Agricultural value chains How cities reshape food systems Minten, Reardon, and Chen 2017 • Drivers of change: Increased commercial flows of agricultural goods, diet transformation, greater role of commercial markets • “Quiet revolution” in staple-food value chains o Increased investment in technology & modern inputs o Greater vertical integration with growing scale of midstream & retail sections o Rise of mobile phone use by farmers for market information
  15. 15. Agricultural value chains Transport costs and adoption of modern technologies in Ethiopia
  16. 16. Agricultural value chains Policy and research needs Minten, Reardon, and Chen 2017 • What is the impact of growth in post-farmgate segments and urban markets on employment, prices, and food security for both rural and urban populations? • How can governments best kick-start changes in agricultural value chains, including through investment in o Road and communications infrastructure o Reliable electricity grids o Agricultural research and development
  17. 17. Governance of informal markets Informal food markets are key in African cities • In Africa, where urbanization is most rapid, urban poor rely heavily on informal markets for accessible, affordable food o Most eggs, meat, fish, and milk sold to urban poor are from informal markets • Policies face institutional, administrative, political challenges o Lack of local mandate for food security o Lack of policy integration across sectors & ministries o Political contest over cities can lead to violence Resnick 2017
  18. 18. Governance of informal markets Governments often focus on control, regulation, or eradication of urban informal food economy Resnick 2017
  19. 19. Governance of informal markets Policy and research needs • What tools can institutionalize regular engagement between local governments and informal workers? • How can the informal economy be actively incorporated into discussions of urban food security? • How can cooperation between sectors and ministries be promoted to improve governance of the informal sector? • What approaches, such as training informal sector workers, can improve food safety and support the benefits provided by the sector? Resnick 2017
  20. 20. Regional and national developments Africa • Slow, uneven progress in poverty, hunger, and malnutrition reduction • Drought in Eastern, Southern Africa East Asia • Established ASEAN Risk Assessment Center for Food Safety • Resilience-building in response to El Niño Central Asia • Growing trend of regional integration & harmonization in cross-border trade • Increased Chinese involvement in agriculture Latin America & Caribbean • 3.5 million affected by El Niño-related drought • Rising obesity and consumption of processed foods Middle East & North Africa • Persistent conflict • Algiers, Dubai, Tunis joined the Milan Urban Food Policy Pact South Asia • Greater diversification toward nutritious & high-value crops • New crop-insurance, health protection schemes for the poor (e.g. India)
  21. 21. Regional developments: Africa Average annual GDP growth, 2000-2014 and 2015-2016 • Slow but steady progress in poverty, hunger, and malnutrition reduction o BUT commodity prices and external finance remain low • Continued efforts to support the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) o New continentwide campaign to raise investments in agriculture in the region • Ongoing challenges for 2017 o Impacts of drought and climate change o Conflict o Rapid urbanization Makombe, Collins, and Badiane 2017
  22. 22. Regional developments: Middle East and North Africa Food import dependency, agricultural value added, and city growth in MENA• Conflict remains key barrier o About ½ the population of Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen require humanitarian assistance • Food import dependency likely to rise as populations urbanize and grow • Outlook for 2017 o Tackling root causes of conflict o Preparing strategies to transform agrifood systems for growing food import dependency, urbanization Breisinger, Abdelaziz, and Khouri 2017
  23. 23. Regional developments: Central Asia Total remittance inflows from Russia (2010-2016, quarters 1-3)• Adjusting to external shocks to trading partners o Low commodity prices and economic slowdown in Russia reduced remittances • Crop diversification and nutrition o Increased focus on horticulture for export and to help address under- and overnutrition • Strengthening regional integration by improving institutions and infrastructure • Looking forward o Mitigate risks from external economic shocks o Establish monitoring and evaluation framework for policies Akramov, Park, and Ilyasov 2017
  24. 24. Regional developments: South Asia • Fastest regional economic growth in world (7.1% in 2016) o Yet South Asia is home to 35% of world’s poor • Urbanization and food security o From 2001-2015, urban population grew by 186 million o Over 130 million live in slums with limited access to water and sanitation facilities, basic services • Commitments to improve agriculture, food security, and nutrition o Bangladesh: Enactment of National Nutrition Policy o India: Pledged to double farmers’ income by 2022, launch of new health protection scheme o Nepal: Increased agricultural budget by ~40%, set targets to reduce hunger and malnutrition • Looking forward o Challenges: Climate change, unplanned urbanization remain challenges o Opportunities: Enhancing food systems and intraregional trade Kumar, Ahmed, Davis, and Joshi 2017
  25. 25. Regional developments: South Asia Growth rates in GDP and agricultural GDP in South Asia 2003-2015 Urban population as a percentage of total population in South Asia 2001-2015 World Bank 2016
  26. 26. Regional developments: East Asia Consumption share in terms of expenditures by product in rural and urban areas of East Asian countries, 2010 • Impact of El Niño o Prolonged drought led to lower rice production, challenges for food security o Response: New investments and plans to build resilience • Shifting diets and urbanization o Rice provides 43% of daily calories, yet diets are changing rapidly toward more meat, fish, dairy o Diet changes more rapid in urban areas • Challenges for 2017 o Food safety o Overnutrition o Resource scarcity Chen, Timmer, and Dawe 2017
  27. 27. Regional developments: Latin America and the Caribbean Inequality trends in LAC subregions 2000-2014 • Challenges in 2016 o Political and economic difficulties o El Niño impacted export and staple crop production, affected 3.5 million people o Persistent inequality: Most unequal region in world • Most urbanized developing region o 80% of population live in cities o Continued expansion of supermarkets improves food availability, but also consumption of processed foods • Looking ahead o Uncertainty for LAC economies o Need for macroeconomic and sectoral plans, mid- and long-term investments Díaz-Bonilla and Torero 2017
  28. 28. Food policy indicators Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators ASTI FPRCI GHI IMPACT SPEED TFP Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators Global Hunger Index Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
  29. 29. Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators Investment in agricultural research in most developing countries fall below 1% of agricultural GDP target ASTI
  30. 30. Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators A generation gap threatens future agricultural research ASTI
  31. 31. Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators FPRCI Research capacity varies—even within developing regions Number of publications produced by developing country researchers ranges widely
  32. 32. Global Hunger Index GHI Hunger is declining but still serious in South Asia and Africa south of the Sahara
  33. 33. Global Hunger Index Similar scores reflect different challenges South Asia faces higher child stunting, while Africa south of the Sahara faces higher undernourishment GHI
  34. 34. International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade IMPACT Demand for food will grow, and composition of diets will shift toward fruits and vegetables, pulses, and meats
  35. 35. International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade Demand for cereals will grow most rapidly in Africa south of the Sahara IMPACT
  36. 36. International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade Risk of hunger projected to decline to 5% globally by 2050 IMPACT
  37. 37. Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development SPEED Developing countries spend less on agriculture, but the gap is shrinking
  38. 38. Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development Spending patterns differ across developing regions SPEED
  39. 39. Total Factor Productivity TFP Output per worker doubled from 1991 to 2013, with 70% of growth explained by TFP
  40. 40. Total Factor Productivity TFP growth rates differ across regions TFP
  41. 41. Urbanization presents opportunities for both rural and urban areas to end hunger and malnutrition

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