A New Path Forward in South Sudan by Shahidur Rashid


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IFPRI Policy Seminar "A New Path Forward: Agriculture and Food Security Strategy for South Sudan" at IFPRI on 23 October 2012 by Shahidur Rashid, IFPRI.

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A New Path Forward in South Sudan by Shahidur Rashid

  1. 1. Agriculture in South Sudan Some Thoughts on the Path Forward Shahidur Rashid International Food Policy Research Institute October 23, 2012 Washington, DC This presentation relies on materials from an IFPRI 2011 report, “Current Condition and Agricultural Potential in South Sudan” by Xinshen Diao, Liangzhi You, Vida Alpuerto and Renato Folledo, funded by the World Bank; and some initial works for the WFP-South Sudan.INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  2. 2. Understanding Agricultural Potential South Sudan has high agricultural potential, however 77% of potentially cultivatable land ( more than 50 million ha) are covered with trees, shrubs and grass Only 2.5 million hectares of land are readily available for crop cultivation, with per capita crop land of 0.32 haINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  3. 3. Understanding Agricultural Potential Converting about 6% of tree and shrub covered land would increase total cropped area to 6.3 million hectares Area expansion potential is high in the Greenbelt as well as the Eastern and Western Flood Plains At the state level, most new land will be in Western Bahr el Ghazal, Lakes, and the Equatoria statesINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  4. 4. Food Shortage and Vulnerability  During 2004-2011, average 70% consumption requirement of Cereal imports as % consumption requirement cereal was 1.8 million tons 60% 50%  Cereal import was 30-60% of this consumption requirement 40%  On an average, RSS had to feed more than a million food 30% insecure people. 20% 10% If a yield rate of 2.0 tons /ha is achieved, South Sudan can be cereal self sufficient by 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 allocating only one million ha of land!! Cereal Import as % of consumptionINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  5. 5. Systemic Bottlenecks in South Sudan Agriculture Lack of Market Fundamentals Cereal markets are thin and lack spatial integration Maize prices in production areas as percentage of Juba prices vary from as low as 40% to as high as 160%! The same estimate for sorghum is 70-160%! Very different price trends in two substitutes!INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  6. 6. Systemic Bottlenecks in South Sudan Agriculture $1,600 Agricultural output value $1,400 Revenue per ha of land (US$) per hectare of land in $1,400 South Sudan is $1,200 substantially lower than $1,000 $920 its neighbors because: $800 $660 Low farm productivity $600 (low modern input use due to high input prices) $400 $300 $200 Low farm gate price due to high transaction costs $0 Kenya Ethiopia Uganda S. Sudan All of South Sudan’s neighbors are more competitiveINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  7. 7. Looking Forward The task ahead is obvious Agro-ecological Economically Potential Viable AgricultureINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  8. 8. Looking Forward Making agriculture economically viable is particularly important for South Sudan because:  South Sudan has to avoid resource trap  South Sudan has to avoid Dutch Disease  Oil revenues (an inflow of foreign exchange) will tend to lead to real exchange rate appreciation.  Real (inflation-adjusted) prices of tradable agriculture (including all cereals) would tend to fall  Without major domestic investments to increase productivity, profitability of tradable good will decline (“Dutch disease” effects)INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  9. 9. Looking Forward The key steps to face these challenges are outlined by H.E. Dr. Betty Achan Ogwaro However, executing each of step will require firm commitment from the government and support from the development partners in areas of respective core competencies. One area where IFPRI can support is advancing an evidence based food and agricultural policy agenda by focusing on:  Building analytical capacity (government agencies; universities; think tank)  Establishing institutional mechanism to link to feed analysis into policy makingINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE