Climate Change and Food Security in Southeast Asia: Issues and Policy Options  Ancha Srinivasan, Ph.D. Asian Development B...
Key Issues <ul><li>High vulnerability </li></ul><ul><li>Physical and economic impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Food insecurity in...
Southeast Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change <ul><li>Highly exposed areas  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(islands, deltas...
Countries Identified as Vulnerable to Climate Change in Southeast Asia High Exposure (temp >1.5 o C; rainfall +/- 20%) Hig...
Current Vulnerability to Climate Change Source: EEP 2009
Observed Physical Impacts  <ul><li>Indonesia:  Wet season rainfall increased; dry season rainfall decreased; Number of flo...
Observed Economic Impacts  <ul><li>Flood-related damages  in Asia increased by 8 times in the 1990s than in 1970s; </li></...
Countries in Asia and the Pacific with Cultivated Crop Areas Lost in Excess of 100,000 Hectares, 1-Meter Sea-Level Rise
Climate Change Projections <ul><li>Suggest that the  worst is yet to come . </li></ul><ul><li>Without urgent action, mean ...
<ul><li>Potential Economic Impact  could   be equivalent to losing  6.7% of GDP each year by 2100 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mo...
Three Dimensions of  Sustainable Food Security
Impact on Rice Production   Page
Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050:  Irrigated Rice in Asia Change in production = -27% NCAR A2, no CF
Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050:  Rainfed Rice in Asia Change in production = -12% NCAR A2, no CF
Estimated % Declines in Crop Yields  due to Climate Change by 2080 Adapted from Cline 2007
Impact on Calorie Availability  Page  18% decline in calorie availability in Asian developing countries due to climate cha...
Impacts on Food and Beverage Sectors <ul><li>Declining crop/animal yields &  High prices for agricultural inputs  (water, ...
Impacts of climate change on Food and Beverage sub-sectors
Policy Options <ul><li>Mainstreaming climate concerns </li></ul><ul><li>Research on climate change and food sec. </li></ul...
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Climate Change and Food Security in Southeast Asia: Issues and Policy Options

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Ancha Srinivasan, Ph.D.
Asian Development Bank

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  • Countries were classified as being highly exposed if the temperature increases by at least 1.5oC or if annual precipitation levels increase or decrease by at least 20%. Sensitivity was represented by share of labor employed in agriculture [FAO 2004]; countries with agricultural employment above 40% are considered to be highly sensitive. A poverty level of more than 30% is considered to be low adaptive capacity
  • • In 2006 in the Philippines alone, extreme weather events accounted for 3,000 deaths and widespread property destruction (OneWorld.net 2008). • In 2007 in Vietnam, an exceptionally severe typhoon season led to widespread loss of life, flooding, and estimated damages of US$725 million (OneWorld.net 2008; Independent Online 2008). • In August 2008, the Mekong River reached its highest level in 100 years, causing landslides and forcing thousands to evacuate (Binh Minh 2008; Mydans 2008). • In Vietnam, which has over 3,200 km of coastlines, a one-meter rise in sea levels would submerge 12 percent of land and displace 23-25 percent of the population, destroying many agricultural and fishing livelihoods (OneWorld.net 2008; Independent Online 2008; World Bank 2008b). • Major cities such as Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, Jakarta, and Bangkok risk becoming submerged within this century (see Figure 4) (Prachatai 2008; Gray 2007).
  • Increase in the inter-annual variability of daily precipitation in the summer monsoon Coastal inundation and erosion (Indonesia) Saltwater intrusion (most countries) (Philippines); biophysical impacts: (a) physiological effects on crops, pasture, forests and livestock (quantity, quality); (b) changes in land, soil and water resources (quantity, quality); (c) increased weed and pest challenges; (d) shifts in spatial and temporal distribution of impacts; (e) sea level rise, changes to ocean salinity; (f) sea temperature rise causing fish to inhabit different ranges. socio-economic impacts: (a) decline in yields and production; (b) reduced marginal GDP from agriculture; (c) fluctuations in world market prices; (d) changes in geographical distribution of trade regimes; (e) increased number of people at risk of hunger and food insecurity; (f) migration and civil unrest
  • Increase in the inter-annual variability of daily precipitation in the summer monsoon Increasing intensity and frequency of events associated with El-Nino and La-Nina;. Coastal inundation and erosion (Indonesia) Saltwater intrusion (most countries) Annual frequency of cyclones increased by 4.2 (Philippines); biophysical impacts: (a) physiological effects on crops, pasture, forests and livestock (quantity, quality); (b) changes in land, soil and water resources (quantity, quality); (c) increased weed and pest challenges; (d) shifts in spatial and temporal distribution of impacts; (e) sea level rise, changes to ocean salinity; (f) sea temperature rise causing fish to inhabit different ranges. socio-economic impacts: (a) decline in yields and production; (b) reduced marginal GDP from agriculture; (c) fluctuations in world market prices; (d) changes in geographical distribution of trade regimes; (e) increased number of people at risk of hunger and food insecurity; (f) migration and civil unrest
  • See the red bar and accompanying green bar to see reduction
  • China, Viet Nam, Indonesia, Thailand, and several other economies
  • Volume of freshwater consumed has tripled in Viet Nam and doubled in Malaysia Consumer trends in the region for more processed foods and increased meat and dairy consumption Agriculture sector’s high reliance on chemical inputs and monocrops
  • Climate Change and Food Security in Southeast Asia: Issues and Policy Options

    1. 1. Climate Change and Food Security in Southeast Asia: Issues and Policy Options Ancha Srinivasan, Ph.D. Asian Development Bank
    2. 2. Key Issues <ul><li>High vulnerability </li></ul><ul><li>Physical and economic impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Food insecurity in SEA </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts of climate change on food security </li></ul><ul><li>Water stress and food security </li></ul><ul><li>Saltwater intrusion and food security </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts on the private sector & urban food security </li></ul><ul><li>Non-climate stresses and food security </li></ul>
    3. 3. Southeast Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change <ul><li>Highly exposed areas </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(islands, deltas, coastal regions, steep slopes) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>High concentration of population and economic activity in coastal areas </li></ul><ul><li>High reliance on climate-sensitive sectors – agriculture, water, energy (hydro), tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Millions of poor with low adaptive capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid urbanization and high urban population in vulnerable areas </li></ul>
    4. 4. Countries Identified as Vulnerable to Climate Change in Southeast Asia High Exposure (temp >1.5 o C; rainfall +/- 20%) High Sensitivity (dependence on agriculture/fisheries) Low Adaptive Capacity (income-related poverty) Cambodia Lao PDR Indonesia Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Myanmar Thailand Timor-Leste Viet Nam Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Timor-Leste
    5. 5. Current Vulnerability to Climate Change Source: EEP 2009
    6. 6. Observed Physical Impacts <ul><li>Indonesia: Wet season rainfall increased; dry season rainfall decreased; Number of floods/storms increased; Number of hot days and warm nights increased; Intensity and frequency of heat waves and forest fires increased </li></ul><ul><li>Malaysia: Number of rainy days declined </li></ul><ul><li>Philippines: Increasing intensity and frequency of events associated with El-Nino and La-Nina; Annual frequency of cyclones increased by 4.2 </li></ul><ul><li>Thailand: Decreasing rainfall; growing intensity of storms </li></ul><ul><li>Viet Nam: Decrease in monthly rainfall (July-Aug); rapid increase in extreme events </li></ul>
    7. 7. Observed Economic Impacts <ul><li>Flood-related damages in Asia increased by 8 times in the 1990s than in 1970s; </li></ul><ul><li>Direct damage costs from tropical cyclones in Asia in the 1990s increased by 35 times more than in 1970s; </li></ul><ul><li>Increased food prices and civil unrest in several countries </li></ul><ul><li>Philippines: Typhoons in 2009 alone cost ~3% of GDP </li></ul><ul><li>Thailand: 2008 - >200,000 people affected by water borne diseases following storms </li></ul><ul><li>Viet Nam: Typhoon 2007 - $725m loss </li></ul>
    8. 8. Countries in Asia and the Pacific with Cultivated Crop Areas Lost in Excess of 100,000 Hectares, 1-Meter Sea-Level Rise
    9. 9. Climate Change Projections <ul><li>Suggest that the worst is yet to come . </li></ul><ul><li>Without urgent action, mean temperature may increase by 4.8 o C and sea level by up to 70 cm by 2100 from the 1990 levels </li></ul>Source: ADB 2009
    10. 10. <ul><li>Potential Economic Impact could be equivalent to losing 6.7% of GDP each year by 2100 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More than twice the global average loss </li></ul></ul>Source: ADB 2009
    11. 11. Three Dimensions of Sustainable Food Security
    12. 12. Impact on Rice Production Page
    13. 13. Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Irrigated Rice in Asia Change in production = -27% NCAR A2, no CF
    14. 14. Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Rainfed Rice in Asia Change in production = -12% NCAR A2, no CF
    15. 15. Estimated % Declines in Crop Yields due to Climate Change by 2080 Adapted from Cline 2007
    16. 16. Impact on Calorie Availability Page 18% decline in calorie availability in Asian developing countries due to climate change
    17. 17. Impacts on Food and Beverage Sectors <ul><li>Declining crop/animal yields & High prices for agricultural inputs (water, chemical inputs)  High agricultural commodity prices/price volatility </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing water scarcity  Adverse impacts on operating efficiency/processing costs </li></ul><ul><li>Growing concerns on food safety and community relations  Increasing reputational and legal risks </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shrimp farming in Thailand – Growing conflicts among sectors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Oil palm industry in Malaysia – New regulations on expansion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vinamilk (Viet Nam Dairy) – Increasing variability in milk supply </li></ul></ul>
    18. 18. Impacts of climate change on Food and Beverage sub-sectors
    19. 19. Policy Options <ul><li>Mainstreaming climate concerns </li></ul><ul><li>Research on climate change and food sec. </li></ul><ul><li>Food-water-energy nexus </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation technologies and investments </li></ul><ul><li>REDD+ strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Mitigation-Adaptation synergies </li></ul><ul><li>Regional cooperation & Trade liberalization </li></ul>
    20. 20. Thank you.

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