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Book Launch, "Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India"


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Prabhu Pingali, Anaka Aiyar, Mathew Abraham, and Andaleeb Rahman
Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India
JUN 6, 2019 - 12:15 PM TO 01:45 PM EDT

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Book Launch, "Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India"

  1. 1. Transforming FoodSystems for a Rising India • Palgrave Series in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy • Authors: • Prabhu Pingali • Anaka Aiyar • Mathew Abraham • Andaleeb Rahman Download your free copy at:
  2. 2. Overview Prabhu Pingali
  3. 3. Transforming Foods Systems for a Rising India Prabhu Pingali Anaka Aiyar Mathew Abraham Andaleeb Rahman Published June 2019
  4. 4. Multisectoral Approachfor Food System Transformation
  5. 5. Divergence in growth at the state-level has led to different welfare and nutritionoutcomes State GDP per capita of different states in comparison to other developing regions 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $)
  6. 6. Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India ● Chapter 1. Indian Food Systems towards 2050: Challenges and Opportunities ● Chapter 2. Economic Growth, Agriculture and Food Systems: Explaining Regional Diversity ● Chapter 3. Rural Livelihood Challenges: Moving out of Agriculture ● Chapter 4. Diet Diversity and the Declining Importance of Staple Grains ● Chapter 5. The Nutrition Transformation: From Undernutrition to Obesity ● Chapter 6. Reimagining Safety Net Programs ● Chapter 7. Enabling Smallholder Prosperity through Commercialization and Diversification ● Chapter 8. Linking Farms to Markets: Reducing Transaction Costs and Enhancing Bargaining Power ● Chapter 9. Agricultural Technology for Increasing Competitiveness of Small Holders ● Chapter 10. Managing Climate Change Risks in Food Systems ● Chapter 11. The Way Forward: Food Systems for Enabling Rural Prosperity and Nutrition Security
  7. 7. Andaleeb Rahman
  8. 8. Data: National Accounts Statistics, Pingali et al 2019 Chapter 2 Key Takeaway:Subnationaldivergence in structural transformation Sub National Structural Transformation in India (1960-2015)
  9. 9. Initialinvestments in agricultural productivity growth kicked off different trajectories in economic growth District-level rice yields 1966 to 2016 Data: ICRSIAT VDSA
  10. 10. New classification of sub-national regions Lagging States Low urbanization rates Low GDP per capita Low productive agriculture sector drives growth Bihar, MP, UP, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Rajasthan, J&K, North east states Agriculture- led States Low urbanization rates High GDP per capita Share of agriculture is relatively high Punjab, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh Urbanizing States High urbanization rates High GDP per capita Share of agriculture is reducing Kerala, Goa, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Karnataka, Telangana, Uttarakhand
  11. 11. Key Takeaway: Growing income and urbanizationdrives diet change Share of expenditures on food, by rural and urban populations% of population living in urban areas Data: National Statistical Sample Organization, Pingali et al 2019 Chapter 4 Data: Census 2011, Pingali et al 2019 Chapter 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban 1972-73 1983 1993-94 2011-12 Cereal and products Pulses and Products Milk and Products Edible Oil Meat, Eggs and Fish Vegetables and Fruits Beverages and processed food Source: NSSO Various reports …But, supplyhas not kept pace with rising demandfor diverse foods.
  12. 12. Key Takeaway: Safety net programs need to evolve with growth and nutritional needs • Diversifying food-based programs away from an exclusive focus on staple grains • Delinking food-grain procurement and food-based safety nets • Looking beyond food-based safety nets Photo: J. Ames © Tata-Cornell Institute
  13. 13. Anaka Aiyar
  14. 14. Data: NFHS 2015-16, Based on Authors Calculations Key Takeaway: The nutritiontransitionfrom under-nutritionto obesity is happening now! Prevalence of triple burden of malnutrition in India (2015-16) Percentage point change in malnutrition (2005-06 & 2015-16) Data: NFHS 2005-06 & 2015-16, Pingali et al 2019 Chapter 5 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 Percent Undernourished Percent Overweight Children Women Men -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Underweight Overweight Children Men Women
  15. 15. Data: NFHS 2015-16, Pingali et al 2019, Chapter 5 Data: NFHS 2015-16, Pingali & Aiyar 2019 Structural transformation and the interstate and intrahousehold differences in malnutrition Structural transformation and the changing malnutrition burden (2015-16) Prevalence of undernutrition in the household (2015-16) [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 PrevalenceofUnderweightwomen(BMI<18.5) Prevalence of Overweight Women (BMI>25) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Lagging India HighAg Productivity Urbanizing Men Women Children
  16. 16. Key Takeaway: Refocusing public policy to transformthe food system and tackle the triple burdenof malnutrition Program Focus Program Focus Cash transfers / Health insurance / Other insurance Transformational safety nets for vulnerable groups Behavior change (nutrition, sanitation) + Public finance tools (taxes for unhealthy foods, food safety laws, food labeling) Population-wide changes to nutrition behavior Boosting ST through non-farm sector Investing in supply chains & urban safety nets Green Revolution 2.0 Increasing local production diversity
  17. 17. Mathew Abraham
  18. 18. Key Takeaway: Commercializationand diversificationare essential for income and supply • Changing demand has brought about opportunities for diversification and new markets • Opportunities have not translated into benefits due to smallholder inability to commercialize • Limited access to credit, inputs, technology and markets hinders diversification • Smallholder transaction costs make it difficult to access new value chains Source
  19. 19. Small farm aggregation models enable production diversity • Cooperatives and Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) offset scale disadvantages and improve access to inputs and markets • In agriculture-led states: focus on linkages to value chains and higher value agricultural products • In lagging states: focus on traditional constraints, like access to inputs, technology and markets Source:
  20. 20. KeyTakeaway: Enhancingsmallholder productivityand competitiveness requires moving beyond staple grain technologies • Green Revolution 2.0 diversifies beyond staples and into lagging states • Breeding technology should improve yield, nutrition and resilience • Equitable access to technology- the case of Bt cotton • ICTs and big data can transform food systems Yield trends in selected crops in India from 1950-51 to 2016-17
  21. 21. Key Takeaway: Climate change can have significant adverse impacts on rural welfare and nutrition • In agriculture-led states: increasing water scarcity threatens existing staple crop systems • In lagging states: non-staple crops that are important to the poor, such as millets & pulses, will be severely affected • Changing geographies for disease vectors will affect human and animal health – women and children disproportionately affected Source:
  22. 22. Technology+ approachfor Adaptation andMitigation • Region specific approaches for tackling climate change have been proposed in the energy sector, but not much implemented in the agriculture sector • National and state policies for climate change adaptation are yet to take shape • There has been very little private sector participation in these efforts, though consumer awareness is growing • Technology plus conservation plus community action Agriculture 20.6% Industry 21.7% Energy 57.7% Emissions by Sector (2008-09) Data: MoEf 2009, Pingali et al 2019, Chapter 10
  23. 23. Concluding Remarks Prabhu Pingali
  24. 24. Concluding remarks: So what does this all mean? • Dealing with intra-country diversity in growth patterns • Managing India’s nutrition transition through food system diversity • Rising urban demand for diversity could lead to new opportunities for small farms • Diversifying the food system is constrained by staple grain focused policies and poor market infrastructure for non-staples • Delinking food grain procurement from safety net programs is crucial for enhancing food system diversity • Aggregating small farms into producer groups could help reduce transactions costs for accessing value chains • Mitigating climate impacts on nutrition-rich food crops important to the poor • Drawing inter-state and inter-country learnings from the India rural growth story
  25. 25. Q & A Panel