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Ahmed Kamaly • 2017 IFPRI Egypt Seminar Series: Opportunities of Energy Subsidy Reform

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IFPRI Egypt Seminar Series provides a platform for all people striving to identify and implement evidence-based policy solutions that sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. The series is part of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded project called “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI.

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Ahmed Kamaly • 2017 IFPRI Egypt Seminar Series: Opportunities of Energy Subsidy Reform

  1. 1. Prospects of using evidence based research for policy making and strategy development Opportunities of Energy Subsidy Reform for Sustainable Development in Egypt – IFPRI Dr. Ahmed Kamaly Advisor to the Minister of Planning Monitoring and Administrative Reform Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform 27 February 2018
  2. 2. Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform 2 Evidence based policy prospects in Egypt – macro efforts  Evidence based policies have become the core tool for development with the ever increasing availability of data.  Egypt is embracing the concepts of data availability, and transparency and is working through a number of endeavors to strengthen its evidence based policy making process.  The importance and commitment towards having accurate, reliable and timely national accounts to support national planning and evidence based policies is reflected through the prime minister decree (decree no. 1000 - 2017) for the revision of GDP and investments statistics.  The technical committee formulated is mandated to develop methodologies for the estimation of the informal sector’s GDP as well as the size of private investment – which are key growth drivers of the Egyptian economy.
  3. 3. Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform 3 Evidence based policy prospects in Egypt – MPMAR efforts  The Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform promotes and adopts evidence based policies through the following projects:  Use of quantifiable targets in the Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt Vision 2030.  Development of The Macro Analysis and Policy Unit (MAP).  Reviving the role of the Institute of National Planning as the ministry’s think tank through a number of collaborative research projects (private investment, allocation of investments, etc..)  Development of an Egyptian CGE model in cooperation with ESCWA to support policy analysis – which builds on IFPRI’s training on CGE to MPMAR.  The Ministry is also working on the development of an Employment Projection Model in cooperation with the International Labor Organization (ILO), CAPMAS and the Ministry of Trade & Industry.
  4. 4. Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform 4 Macro Analysis and Policy Unit at MPMAR  The Macro Analysis and Policy Unit (MAP) undertakes applied and policy-oriented evidence based research on macroeconomic issues facing Egypt to provide advice on macroeconomic management, development and future economic perspectives.  Examples of the evidence based research are the following projects:  Planning for Egypt’s Future Using 2017 Census Data.  SMEs Policy Index  Forecasting GDP
  5. 5. Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform 5 Macro Analysis and Policy Unit at MPMAR 1. Planning for Egypt’s Future Using 2017 Census Data  In September 2017, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) announced the results of the 2017 Census of Population, Housing and Establishments in Egypt.  The 2017 census provides the largest updated database of the current situation regarding population, buildings, units, housing conditions, and facilities, at both national and municipal levels.  To support policy and decision-makers in the government, the Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform formulated working groups of experts to study and analyze the results of the 2017 census and their implications in three scopes;  Economic conditions;  Social Justice; and  Sustainability
  6. 6. Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform 6 Macro Analysis and Policy Unit at MPMAR 2. SMEs Policy Index  To monitor the impact of the different policies targeting SME's in Egypt, MAP is working on establishing an SME's Policy index that should serve as a benchmarking tool to monitor and evaluate progress in policies that support micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).  The Index will be structured around ten principles providing a wide- range of pro-enterprise measures to guide the design and implementation of SME policies. Aiming to provide a framework to assess policies targeting MSME development, as the Index identifies strengths and weaknesses in policy design and implementation, allowing the government to set targets on SME policy developments and strategic priorities to further improve the business environment.
  7. 7. Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform 7 Macro Analysis and Policy Unit at MPMAR 3. Forecasting GDP  Egypt is aiming to further develop its sustainable development strategy: Egypt Vision 2030. Such long-term strategy, which extends until 2030, highlights the importance of setting quantitative targets for the variables involved in the various strategic pillars.  In this context, GDP growth represents one of the most important economic variables, as this one indicator reflects living standards, employment, wages, prices, economic stability, and is an important determinant for private investments. We use a system dynamics partial equilibrium model to estimate real GDP, potential GDP and measure the output gap until 2030
  8. 8. Thank You! Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform 27 February 2018

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