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2022 AFRICA AGRICULTURE TRADE MONITOR (AATM)

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2022 AFRICA AGRICULTURE TRADE MONITOR (AATM)

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Antoine Bouet, Sunday Odjo, Chahir Zaki
POLICY SEMINAR
2022 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM)
Leveraging Data to Improve Intra-Africa Food Trade
Co-Organized by IFPRI and AKADEMIYA2063
SEP 27, 2022 - 9:30 TO 11:15AM EDT

Antoine Bouet, Sunday Odjo, Chahir Zaki
POLICY SEMINAR
2022 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM)
Leveraging Data to Improve Intra-Africa Food Trade
Co-Organized by IFPRI and AKADEMIYA2063
SEP 27, 2022 - 9:30 TO 11:15AM EDT

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2022 AFRICA AGRICULTURE TRADE MONITOR (AATM)

  1. 1. 2022 AFRICA AGRICULTURE TRADE MONITOR (AATM) Editors: Antoine Bouet, IFPRI Sunday Odjo, AKADEMIYA2063 Chahir Zaki, Cairo University/AGRODEP Presenter: Ousmane Badiane, AKADEMIYA2063 Highlights
  2. 2. 2022 AFRICA AGRICULTURE TRADE MONITOR (AATM) AATM is published jointly with IFPRI It is supported financially by USAID and Germany’s BMZ Team of co-editors by AKADEMIYA2063, IFPRI and AGRODEP Production by AKADEMIYA2063 communications team AATM is a flagship of AKADEMIYA2063’s ReSAKSS and AGRODEP programs
  3. 3. THE CURRENT GLOBAL FOOD MARKET CRISIS AND AFRICAN COUNTRIES AFRICAN PARTICIPATION IN GOLBAL AGRICULTURAL VALUE CHAINS INTR AFRICAN TRADE IN AGRICULTURE TRADE IN FEATURED VALUE CHAINS: COCOA, COFFEE AND TEA AfCFTA AMBITIONS AND IMPLEMENTATION 2022 AATM – TABLE OF CONTENT
  4. 4. Africa export intermediate goods used in third-country agricultural exports, particularly the EU • Share as high as 40 percent of gross exports. Factors behind low participation in trade of more sophisticated agricultural products: • Weak manufacturing base • Abundant natural resources, such as land and mine Africa’s contribution to global value chains is small, but it is growing at a significant pace AFRICAN PARTICIPATION IN GOLBAL AGRICULTURAL VALUE CHAINS • It still imports relatively little intermediate goods to process into higher value products Rising global prices before Ukraine: Climatic events; Export bans or taxes; Support for biofuels
  5. 5. Intra-African trade during COVID: • declined significantly in ECCAS and AMU* • increased significantly in the East African Community (EAC): Trade Facilitation Over the last two decades: • intra-African agricultural exports of processed products grew strongly Share of intra-African trade in terms of calories, fats, and proteins higher than in value terms High, escalating tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) limiting intra-African trade
  6. 6. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Most tariffs on intra-African trade will be eliminated Clause on sensitive / excluded products create loopholes / risk of delay Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) are significant and need to be addressed Impact from elimination of NTMs far outweighs impact from tariff elimination
  7. 7. REAL FOOD, FERTILIZERS AND ENERGY PRICES, 2006-2022 Chinese export restrictions Russian invasion 2011 Food price crisis 2008 Food price crisis EU natural gas price at 5-year low Energy Fertilizers Grains Russian invasion just amplified other driving forces behind rising food and fertilizer prices
  8. 8. SHARE OF RUSSIA AND UKRAINE IN CEREALS IMPORTS North African countries are the most exposed to cereals market disruptions
  9. 9. PARTICIPATION IN GLOBAL VCs AND AGGREGATE EXPORT CONTENT, 1990-2019 African imports 15% of intermediate goods to add value but exports 85% to others to add value
  10. 10. AFRICA GVC PARTICIPATION BY SECTOR, 2015-2017 Agriculture is the most forward-linked (input provider to GVs) of all sectors
  11. 11. INTRA-AFRICAN TRADE BY VALUE AND NUTRIENT CONTENT, 2003-2020 African trade more and increasingly in food products and exports non-food products Intra-African trade by value Intra-African trade by nutrient content Africa SADC COMESA ECOWAS EAC AMU ECCA Fats (L-axis) Proteins (L-axis) Calorie (R-axis) US$ Million Million metric tons Trillion Kcal
  12. 12. INTRA-RECs AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS BY PROCESSING STAGE Processed products account for more than 70% of intra-African trade Unprocessed Semi-processed Processed
  13. 13. TARIFF BARRIERS TO INTRA-AFRICAN TRADE Intra-African trade affected not just by tariff but by tariff escalation as well
  14. 14. NON-TARIFF MEASURES (NTMs) AND INTRA-AFRICAN TRADE Average Tariff Equivalent of SPS faced in African markets similar to levels in non-African markets
  15. 15. Exports Africa East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean Border compliance Documentary compliance Border compliance Documentary compliance Processing Time Imports Exports Border compliance Documentary compliance Border compliance Documentary compliance Processing Cost Imports NON-TARIFF BARRIERS (NTBs) TO INTRA-AFRICAN TRADE NTM related time and cost higher in Africa than other any other region Hours US Dollars
  16. 16. 2022 AFRICA AGRICULTURE TRADE MONITOR (AATM) THANK YOU

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