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2019 Global Food Policy Report

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2019 GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT
IFPRI
The 2019 Global Food Policy Report reviews major food policy developments and events from the past year. In this eighth annual report, leading researchers, policymakers, and practitioners explore the potential of rural revitalization to improve rural lives and meet the Sustainable Development Goals.

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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2019 Global Food Policy Report

  1. 1. 2019 GFPR Overview Urgency of rural revitalization Employment & Livelihoods Gender Equality Environment Renewable Energy Governance Rural Revitalization Poverty, Hunger, & Malnutrition Europe’s Experience
  2. 2. FOOD POLICY IN 2018-2019 Growing urgency to address the SDGs ▪ Looming issues from 2018 persist in 2019 ▪ Hunger and malnutrition, climate change, and protracted crises ▪ Rural areas are the linchpin of agri-food system transformation for both rural and urban areas ▪ Fundamental transformation of agri-food systems and of rural areas is urgently needed to achieve the SDGs by 2030 ▪ Rural revitalization is timely, achievable, and critical for SDGs and climate goals Source: Fan 2019
  3. 3. Source: Castañeda et al. 2016 26.8 19.2 Rural Urban 6.4 5.8 Rural Urban Malnutrition persists in rural areas Prevalence of under-5 stunting (%) Prevalence of under-5 wasting (%) Source: GNR 2018 0 20 40 60 80 100 2000 2015 2000 2015 Rural Urban Safely managed service Basic service Limited service Unimproved Source: WHO and UNICEF 2018 Rural and urban sanitation service coverage (%) Rural areas are in crisis FOOD POLICY IN 2018-2019 Poverty is disproportionately rural Rural areas face land and water degradation and climate change, which in turn affect social and economic outcomes for agriculture and rural areas
  4. 4. ▪ Rural revitalization requires a transformative approach to make rural areas a good place to live and work for present and future generations ▪ Leverage the symbiotic rural and urban systems to transform rural areas ▪ Rurbanomics is a development approach premised on the potential of symbiotic rural and urban systems to transform rural areas ▪ Rural–urban links can spur growth and diversification in and beyond agriculture, increase incomes, support value chain development, and improve well-being ▪ Revitalizing rural areas is key to achieve the SDGs, ensuring everyone can contribute to and benefit from economic growth and development RURAL REVITALIZATION Tapping into new opportunities Source: Steiner and Fan 2019
  5. 5. RURAL REVITALIZATION Key recommendations ▪ Adopt rurbanomics as an approach for strengthening rural–urban linkages to promote rural transformation, which can benefit rural labor, production, distribution, markets, services, consumption, and environmental sustainability ▪ Transform agrifood systems to benefit rural areas through investments, including in agricultural research and development, postharvest rural activities, and climate-smart and nutrition-sensitive innovations ▪ Scale up rural nonfarm economic opportunities and build capacity for employment by developing markets and creating clusters and special economic, as well as improving primary and secondary education and vocational training ▪ Improve living conditions in rural areas with stronger social safety nets, better access to basic services, and a healthier environment ▪ Reform rural governance to improve accountability and outcomes for a public sector that is transparent, capable, and responsive to rural needs Source: Steiner and Fan 2019
  6. 6. ▪ The world is not yet on track to achieve the SDGs by 2030. Poverty and malnutrition rates are falling in many places, but not fast enough ▪ Many of the world’s poor and malnourished people live in rural areas and are dependent on the agriculture sector for food and livelihoods ▪ Breakthroughs are needed in policy and financing for agricultural and rural growth to reduce poverty and hunger ▪ Critical challenges to reducing rural poverty and malnutrition include limited international and domestic investment, the current international trade environment, and climate change POVERTY, HUNGER, AND MALNUTRITION Challenges and breakthroughs for rural revitalization Source: Kharas and Noe 2019
  7. 7. POVERTY, HUNGER, AND MALNUTRITION Trends in funding and progress for the SDGs Projected progress for SDG targets by 2030, Business as usual scenario Source: Kharas and Noe 2019 Funding for food and nutrition security, 2002-2016
  8. 8. Key recommendations ▪ Expand and improve data on rural poverty and malnutrition to provide evidence for sound policymaking ▪ Adopt a systems approach to address rural needs, including integration of natural resource issues, as well as those of other sectors, with agricultural production and agri-food systems development ▪ Increase financial and policy support for reducing rural poverty and malnutrition by strengthening national and international accountability mechanisms and commitment to rural revitalization ▪ Create an attractive policy environment for private sector and blended public– private investment in rural development that could reduce rural poverty and malnutrition POVERTY, HUNGER, AND MALNUTRITION Source: Kharas and Noe 2019
  9. 9. ▪ Many African countries have experienced strong economic growth and rapid urbanization, but not the industrial growth that has generated employment in other regions ▪ Policies that increase agricultural productivity and improve market access are vital for rural areas, where poverty is high and youth populations are large ▪ Rapidly growing demand for food in urban areas offers promise for expansion of agro-processing and other agribusinesses ▪ Connectivity is improving, but many rural residents have little access to urban markets ▪ Integrating rural economies with small cities and towns shows promise for transforming rural Africa EMPLOYMENT AND LIVELIHOODS Connecting Africa’s rural and urban areas for rural revitalization Source: Diao, Dorosh, Jemal, Kennedy, and Thurlow 2019
  10. 10. EMPLOYMENT AND LIVELIHOODS Agriculture is at the heart of revitalizing rural areas Share of income-generating activities in total rural household income, by country Source: Diao, Dorosh, Jemal, Kennedy, and Thurlow 2019 Population of peri-urban, peri-rural, and remote rural areas in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015
  11. 11. ▪ Nest rural employment strategies, such as policies supporting agricultural commercialization and off-farm employment, within broader strategies for agricultural transformation and development ▪ Modernize and diversify agriculture to promote youth employment, including adoption of modern technologies and development of high-value crops ▪ Make complementary investments in basic services (electricity, communications) and human capital (education, healthcare) to promote vibrant rural areas and support better employment options Key recommendations EMPLOYMENT AND LIVELIHOODS Source: Diao, Dorosh, Jemal, Kennedy, and Thurlow 2019
  12. 12. ▪ Achieving gender equity and women’s empowerment is of intrinsic value to women and girls, and a key for the SDGs ▪ Women and girls face a burden of time-consuming responsibilities, while controlling fewer resources and having less access, and less voice in governance and decisionmaking than men ▪ Growth of nonagricultural jobs in many regions has led to the “feminization” of agriculture ▪ The reach-benefit-empower framework facilitates evaluation of how projects support women’s participation, receipt of benefits, and ability to make choices ▪ Policies create conditions for successful projects, and should also be evaluated with the reach-benefit-empower lens ▪ Policies to empower women can promote rural revitalization GENDER EQUALITY Women’s empowerment for rural revitalization Source: Quisumbing, Meinzen-Dick, and Malapit 2019
  13. 13. GENDER EQUALITY Reach-benefit-empower framework Applying the framework for a nutrition-sensitive agricultural extension program Source: Quisumbing, Meinzen-Dick, and Malapit 2019
  14. 14. ▪ Use a reach-benefit-empower framework to ensure that interventions move beyond nominal participation to real improvements in women’s lives ▪ Increase women’s effective voice through participation in formal governance structures, from local to national, and increasing women’s confidence to become politically involved ▪ Improve data and evidence relevant to increasing equality, particularly sex- disaggregated data and impact evaluation of programs and policies for women’s empowerment ▪ Include men and boys when designing projects and policies for women to reduce backlash and encourage changes in gender norms Key recommendations GENDER EQUALITY Source: Quisumbing, Meinzen-Dick, and Malapit 2019
  15. 15. ▪ Rural areas are the locus of essential ecosystem services for the planet, and rural dwellers are key custodians of these services, yet rural livelihoods also contribute to loss of forests, groundwater depletion, land degradation, water and air pollution, and climate change ▪ Challenges contributing to this environmental degradation include: population and (unequal) economic growth and pressures on natural resources; associated poverty and inequality that leave people (particularly women) with few options; and lack of rights and poor pricing of resources ▪ Restoring and improving the environment is a key component of rural revitalization, essential not only to improving rural living conditions but also to the health of the planet ENVIRONMENT Revitalizing, restoring, and improving rural areas Source: Ringler and Meinzen-Dick 2019
  16. 16. Rural areas are critical for key ecosystem services Key functions and relationships affecting rural environments ENVIRONMENT Source: Ringler and Meinzen-Dick 2019
  17. 17. ▪ Invest in rural revitalization to create healthy and thriving rural areas and to provide safe food, clean water, climate change mitigation, and other key environmental services ▪ Provide economic incentives to address environmental degradation, including through payments for environmental services, removal of subsidies that distort resource use, and well-defined, tradable rights for environmental “goods,” such as clean water, and “bads,” such as pollution ▪ Invest in innovative practices and technologies, such as precision farming, small-scale irrigation, and communication technologies, that can increase agricultural yields and reduce environmental degradation ▪ Support context-appropriate institutions to motivate and coordinate action among rural dwellers to address environmental issues Key recommendations ENVIRONMENT Source: Ringler and Meinzen-Dick 2019
  18. 18. ▪ Energy is crucial to achieving the SDGs and ensuring durable rural growth and development, yet almost one billion people still lack access to electricity ▪ Modern electrical systems, particularly solar power, are making it easier than ever to meet the energy needs of dispersed rural populations in developing countries ▪ Costs of solar systems have fallen dramatically and, together with the high solar potential in many developing countries, these systems offer a host of rural development possibilities ▪ Electricity brings numerous benefits and potential to increase consumption of healthy, nutrient-dense foods where irrigation and refrigeration are introduced ▪ Expanding solar power use in Africa and other developing regions will require new approaches to energy planning and implementation to reach dispersed rural populations RENEWABLE ENERGY Bringing electricity to revitalize Africa’s rural areas Source: Arndt 2019
  19. 19. A changing energy landscape Cost of renewable energy at auction, global RENEWABLE ENERGY Source: Arndt 2019
  20. 20. ▪ Provide public support to increase electricity access in remote rural areas through policies to promote investment and competition among providers of distributed solar or other renewable systems ▪ Deliver packages of support—access to electricity plus the means to use it, such as lighting and refrigeration— to generate larger development benefits for rural communities. ▪ Account for the impacts of adoption of new technologies within households, particularly on women, including the impact on workloads ▪ Be aware of potential unintended consequences of widespread technology adoption, such as more rapid depletion of groundwater resources associated with low- cost electrical pumping ▪ Consider the potential for enhancing rural development and serving urban electricity needs when selecting sites for power generation Key recommendations RENEWABLE ENERGY Source: Arndt 2019
  21. 21. ▪ Three aspects of governance are critical for rural revitalization ▪ Appropriate and predictable laws and regulations are fundamental to economic growth and development ▪ Effective policy implementation and enforcement are essential for achieving policy goals for rural areas ▪ Accountability is key to ensuring governments respond to the needs of the poor ▪ Devolution of governance to a subnational or local level can improve responsiveness to local needs when responsibilities are matched with adequate funding and mechanisms to ensure accountability ▪ The information revolution offers new tools for improving governance for rural revitalization GOVERNANCE Making institutions work for rural revitalization Source: Kosec and Resnick 2019
  22. 22. Technological innovation can help enhance transparency Access to technology over time, by country income group GOVERNANCE Source: Kosec and Resnick 2019
  23. 23. ▪ Establish an enabling and predictable regulatory environment to stimulate private sector investment and engagement for rural revitalization ▪ Build state capabilities and establish incentives for better service delivery, such as pay-for-performance and delivery units, to improve policy implementation at the national and subnational levels ▪ Facilitate the information revolution to promote engagement of citizens with one another and with politicians and governments Key recommendations GOVERNANCE Source: Kosec and Resnick 2019
  24. 24. ▪ Rural development is a European Union priority, supported by almost €100 billion in funding for 2014–2020 ▪ EU rural development policy aims to foster: competitiveness in agriculture; sustainable natural resource management and climate action; and balanced territorial development of rural areas ▪ Spending on rural and farm diversification is expected to create almost 74,000 rural jobs ▪ With only 11% of farm holdings managed by farmers younger than 40, start-up grants support and enhance viability of young farmers ▪ Agri-environment-climate measures support improvements in environmental quality ▪ “Bottom-up” initiatives emphasize the role of rural communities in determining their own development trajectories. ▪ Monitoring and evaluation is intended to inform policy design, but has fallen short in providing necessary evidence EUROPE’S EXPERIENCE Investing in rural revitalization Source: Matthews 2019
  25. 25. European Union’s priorities for rural development Share of funds for EU rural development priorities, 2014-2020 EUROPE’S EXPERIENCE Source: Matthews 2019
  26. 26. ▪ Engage rural areas in protecting and enhancing the natural environment through programs that integrate agriculture with environment and climate objectives ▪ Promote endogenous rural development through bottom-up approaches that channel the enthusiasm, skills, and local knowledge of rural communities ▪ Support connectivity of rural areas, particularly through access to the Internet, which is essential to the development of precision agriculture, e- services, and greater rural business innovation ▪ Design and implement M&E programs to provide timely evidence on the impact of spending to inform project design and improve targeting and funding allocation Lessons learned EUROPE’S EXPERIENCE Source: Matthews 2019
  27. 27. Regional perspectives and experiences in rural revitalization vary
  28. 28. Recent policy developments ▪ Important steps taken for agricultural and rural transformation ▪ Inaugural Africa Agriculture Transformation Scorecard (AATS) ▪ First ever continental Biennial Review of progress in meeting commitments to agricultural development ▪ Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement Outlook for rural revitalization ▪ Rising urban demand for more convenient processed local foods is transforming staples value chains and creating opportunities for rural revitalization ▪ Policies for rural enterprise growth will be key ▪ Rural areas will benefit from private sector investment in emerging agro-processing sector ▪ Growth in agribusiness sector likely to stimulate smallholder farming and aid poverty reduction ▪ Better infrastructure and social services needed to make the rural space more livable REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS Africa (1) Source: Badiane, Collins, Makombe, and Ulimwengu 2019
  29. 29. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS Africa (2) Change in poverty and agriculture indicators for Africa Change in rural and urban poverty rates Source: Badiane, Collins, Makombe, and Ulimwengu 2019
  30. 30. Recent policy developments ▪ Higher fuel prices reduced pressure for economic reform in oil-exporting countries but increased pressure for reform in oil-importing countries, especially for reform of energy subsidies ▪ Constraints to investment, tourism, and trade continue for MENA countries indirectly affected by conflict and refugee crisis, compounded by weaknesses in economic and political institutions ▪ MENA economies have undertaken efforts to deal with growing unemployment, especially youth unemployment, which is more than 27.5% in the Middle East and 30.5% in North Africa Outlook for rural revitalization ▪ Given the region’s large rural populations and the potential of rural areas, greater attention should be given to fostering rural development as a driver of economy-wide development ▪ Incentivize economic decentralization to advance local development, and continue to reform inefficient subsidies to optimize use of scarce public resources to support growth in rural areas ▪ Move towards more diverse and modern rural employment beyond agriculture and build on the existing strengths of local communities to push for economic expansion REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS Middle East and North Africa (1) Source: Breisinger, Khouri, and Mahfouz 2019
  31. 31. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS Rural share of population and rural-urban inequality Middle East and North Africa (2) Source: Breisinger, Khouri, and Mahfouz 2019
  32. 32. Recent policy developments ▪ Depreciation of national currencies generated inflationary pressures in Central Asia's consumer markets, including food markets ▪ Recent political and economic developments in Central Asia led to a surge in intraregional trade and investment Outlook for rural revitalization ▪ Efforts to develop specific regions or sectors of an economy through cluster development and special economic zones (SEZs) have had mixed results ▪ Need to strengthen role of the private sector, given the uncertain environment and growing demand for employment, especially in rural areas ▪ Creating an enabling environment for regional integration, trade, and private sector development, will be important for economic development and a more competitive, healthy, and well-nourished population REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS Central Asia (1) Source: Akramov, Ilyasov, Tsvetnov, and Park 2019
  33. 33. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS Agriculture’s share in total employment Central Asia (2) Agriculture’s share in GDP Source: Akramov, Ilyasov, Tsvetnov, and Park 2019
  34. 34. Recent policy developments ▪ South Asian governments have increased their commitment to providing basic services in rural areas in recent years, and about 80% of region’s rural population now has access to electricity ▪ Governments are taking measures to help revitalize rural economies ▪ India: cluster-based specialized farming, supporting famer organizations, and creating funds for irrigation, dairy processing, aquaculture and animal husbandry infrastructure ▪ Pakistan: created a framework for agricultural reform and rural revitalization Outlook for rural revitalization ▪ Yet most jobs are in the informal sector, and implementing a “decent employment agenda” will require improving rural livelihoods ▪ Inclusive employment growth, continued agricultural productivity growth, and strengthening of the agriculture-based rural nonfarm economy will be essential ▪ However, poor regional integration and escalating trade tensions may constrain prospects REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS South Asia (1) Source: Kumar, Rana, Davies, Ahmed, and Joshi 2019
  35. 35. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS Access to basic services in rural South Asia South Asia (2) Road density in South Asia Source: Kumar, Rana, Davies, Ahmed, and Joshi 2019
  36. 36. Recent policy developments ▪ Huge social, economic, and environmental transformation from urban growth, but rural regions often left out due to uneven, insufficiently inclusive progress ▪ Governments have pioneered strategies to reverse rural decline for more resilient, sustainable economy ▪ China: multidimensional strategy improving infrastructure, supporting technology innovation, integrating rural industries, improving rural public services ▪ Myanmar: promoting integrated value chain development and agricultural diversification Outlook for rural revitalization ▪ Growing urban markets, supportive domestic policies, and advances in technology for the revival of rural areas can facilitate agricultural transformation ▪ Development of ICTS will likely be key in transforming agricultural production and the lives of farmers ▪ At the same time, governments will need to navigate uncertainty under rising protectionism and ongoing trade disputes REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS East and Southeast Asia Source: Chen, Timmer, Dawe, and Wang 2019
  37. 37. Recent policy developments ▪ Recent elections in Mexico and Brazil are changing the political landscape ▪ Mexico’s incoming government announced intention to invest in revitalizing rural areas ▪ In Brazil, new authorities have announced policies that may reduce environmental safeguards Outlook for rural revitalization ▪ Urbanization has changed rural labor markets, nonagricultural rural activities, and value chains ▪ Growing presence of intermediate cities and role of large agricultural operators, input companies, agro- industrial processors, and supermarket chains ▪ Farmers have become more diversified, with a variety of large, medium and small farmers, each needing different policy approaches ▪ Need to ensure dynamic urban–rural linkages and to ensure that revitalization of the rural sector reaches everyone, including vulnerable ethnic groups and regions ▪ Important to tailor macroeconomic, trade, and agricultural policies to strengthen social resilience in a complex and uncertain environment REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS Latin America and the Caribbean (1) Source: Díaz-Bonilla and Piñeiro 2019
  38. 38. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS Access to basic services Latin America and the Caribbean (2) Source: Díaz-Bonilla and Piñeiro 2019
  39. 39. TRACKING CHANGE Food Policy Indicators Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Projections of food production, consumption, and hunger
  40. 40. Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators TRACKING CHANGE ▪ Global investment in agricultural research has shifted dramatically in recent years toward the developing world ▪ Agricultural research spending and capacity in Latin America and the Caribbean and in Asia have grown rapidly since 2000, but considerable differences remain across countries ▪ China accounts for most of the agricultural research spending growth in Asia, with India close behind ▪ Although agricultural research spending and human resource capacity in Africa south of the Sahara have grown considerably, this growth has been uneven and trends are driven by large countries such as Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa ▪ Female scientists remain severely underrepresented in agricultural research, despite their being in a unique position to address the pressing challenges of African farmers, the majority of whom are women
  41. 41. Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development TRACKING CHANGE ▪ Agricultural spending in recent years has been highest in East Asia and the Pacific, largely driven by rapid growth in agricultural spending in China since 2005, as reflected by three key indicators of government expenditures: per capita agricultural spending, agricultural spending as a share of agricultural GDP, and agricultural spending as a share of total spending ▪ The Middle East and North Africa as well as Europe and Central Asia regions have spent large amounts on agriculture both per capita and as a share of agricultural GDP, but not as a share of total spending ▪ Among developing countries, agricultural spending per capita and as a share of agricultural GDP in 2016 was lowest in Africa south of the Sahara; as a share of total spending, agricultural spending was lowest in Latin America and the Caribbean
  42. 42. Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators TRACKING CHANGE ▪ Overall food policy research capacity across all countries did not change from last year’s level, but there was substantial variation across countries and regions ▪ In the last five years, overall there has been an increase in the number of publications across all regions and countries with the exception of China and South Africa ▪ In 2018, most Asian countries showed little change in number of publications, with the exception of Bangladesh, Lao PDR, and Nepal, which saw an increase in publications ▪ In Africa, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Mali, and Tanzania saw an increase in the number of publications in 2018 ▪ In Latin America, apart from Guatemala, all countries experienced either a slight increase or no change in the number of publications in 2018
  43. 43. Agricultural Total Factor Productivity TRACKING CHANGE ▪ Average TFP growth for all developing regions in 2011–2015 shows lower values than average growth rates of the previous decade (2001–2010) ▪ Sluggish TFP growth in Africa south of the Sahara in 2001–2010 decreased to 0.4% in 2011–2015 ▪ TFP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is the highest among developing regions in recent years at 1.9% in 2011–2015, but below the 2.3% growth in the region in 2001–2010, largely because of slower growth in Brazil (1.6% in 2011–2015 compared with 3.3% in 2001–2010) ▪ Growth in Asia and the Pacific and the Middle East and North Africa for 2011–2015 is similar to growth of these regions in 2001–2010, with growth in China slowing to less than 2%, and India’s growth accelerating from 1.1% in 2001–2010 to 1.7 for 2011–2015
  44. 44. Projections of food production, consumption, and hunger TRACKING CHANGE ▪ Global food production will grow by about 59% over 2010 levels by 2050 in the context of climate change—8 percentage points less than would be the case without climate change ▪ Even with population growth and climate change, per capita consumption is projected to increase by about 10% globally to more than 3,000 kilocalories per day ▪ But differences in access to food within and between countries mean that nearly 500 million people will remain at risk of hunger ▪ Despite the impacts of climate change, meat production is projected to grow by 65% globally by 2050, and by 77% in developing countries ▪ Production of fruits and vegetables, pulses, and oilseeds will grow even more rapidly, by about 80% globally and more than doubling in some regions ▪ Production of cereals and roots and tubers will grow more slowly, by around 40% globally but roughly doubling in Africa south of the Sahara
  45. 45. In order to end hunger and malnutrition in just over a decade, we must revitalize rural areas to ensure that everyone can contribute to and benefit from growth and development.
  46. 46. For the Global Food Policy Report and more information, please visit: http://gfpr.ifpri.info/

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