Global diet change: Implications for agriculture and nutrition

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Mark Rosegrant
2020 Conference on "Leveraging Agriculture for Improving Nutrition and Health"
February 11, 2011

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Global diet change: Implications for agriculture and nutrition

  1. 1. Global Diet ChangeImplications for Agriculture and Nutrition Mark W. Rosegrant Director Siwa Msangi Senior Research Fellow Environment and Production Technology Division
  2. 2. Projected Food Prices: Increasing Scarcity Based on IFPRI IMPACT Scenarios 250 2010 2050 no CC 2050 CC 200 150 100 50 0 Wheat Maize Rice Notes: 2010 = 100; CC = climate change www.ifpri.org
  3. 3. Non-food Competitors in Production Demand for biofuels and bioenergy Emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration Conservation and biodiversity Energy Food Water Landwww.ifpri.org
  4. 4. Agricultural Growth and Food Security Supply drivers Demand drivers Climate change Population: 9 billion people in 2050 Water and land scarcity Income growth: Africa, not just Asia and Latin America Science and technology policy Urbanization: in 2008 50% urban Investment in in 2050 78% urban agricultural research Policy and governance reformwww.ifpri.org
  5. 5. Major Consequences Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for grains for feed Half of growth in grain demand will be for livestock Intense pressure on land and water www.ifpri.org
  6. 6. Dietary and Food System Approaches to Improving NutritionReducing post harvest losses• 10% for grains; 25% for perishables• Economic recoverability limitedWasting less food• 20% wastage in householdsConsuming fish from sustainable stocksReducing consumption of meat and dairy productswww.ifpri.org
  7. 7. Key QuestionWould reduction in meat consumption in richer countries improve food security in developing countries? www.ifpri.org Page 7
  8. 8. Dietary Change Is Not Easy CAMPAIGNS Advocacy, educational, and public relations campaigns PROMOTE LOW-MEAT MENUS Cafeterias, schools, hospitals, and other public-sector institutions POLICIES Taxation and subsidy policies to increase the cost of meat compared to other food productswww.ifpri.org
  9. 9. Per Capita Meat ConsumptionLess meat in rich countries = more in developing countries 100 2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat)Kilogram per capita (per year) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 China Brazil High-income Sub-Saharan Developing countries Africa minus China & Brazil www.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections
  10. 10. Feed Demand for Coarse Grains Less meat = Lower feed-grain demand 1,400 2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat) 1,200Millions of metric tons 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 China Brazil Developing High Income World minus China & Brazil www.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections
  11. 11. World Prices of Grains Reduced feed grain demand = Lower grain prices 300 2000 2030 baseline 250US$ per metric ton 200 150 100 50 0 Rice Wheat Maize www.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections
  12. 12. Per Capita Food Grain Consumption Lower grain prices increases demand 180 2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat) 160Kilogram per capita (per year) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 High-income countries Sub-Saharan Africa Developing minus China & Brazil www.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections
  13. 13. Per Capita Calorie Availability Lower prices increase calorie access 2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat) 3,600 3,400 Kcal per capita (per day) 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 China Brazil Developing High income minus China & Brazilwww.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections
  14. 14. Child Malnutrition Small improvement 160 2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat) 140 Millions of children aged 0-5 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 All Sub-Saharan Africa All Asia Developing countries Source: IMPACT model projectionswww.ifpri.org
  15. 15. Lower Meat Production Saves Large Areas of Pasture and Cropland 250 HIC only HIC + China BrazilArea saved (millions of hectares) 200 150 100 50 0 China Brazil Developing High income World minus China & Brazil www.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections
  16. 16. Conclusions Halving of meat consumption in richer countries has • small nutrition benefits in developing countries • big land saving impacts Dietary change is a useful tool for improved food security and nutrition But transformative progress requires much broader investment in agricultural and rural development www.ifpri.org

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