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EVOLVING MARKETS
AND CONSUMER E-BOOK PURCHASING BEHAVIOUR




                                  David Walter
                                19 March 2013
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                     • Context
                                                                       • Consumer Confidence and International Print Book
                                                                         Markets
                                                                     • Connected devices adoption
                                                                       • US and Italy e-reader and tablet penetration
                                                                       • Manufacturer market share
                                                                     • The UK e-book market
                                                                       • E-book penetration and the rate of change
                                                                       • The value of the e-book and print book market
                                                                       • E-book pricing and the consequence for print book
                                                                         prices
                                                                                                                             2
CONTEXT
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                     GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE




4
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX – BOOKSCAN TERRITORIES
                                                                     Q4 2012 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index

                                                                     160


                                                                     140

                                                                              121
                                                                     120
                                                                                             111


                                                                     100                                       95   94                       Global average = 91
                                                                                                                         89
                                                                                                                              79   76
                                                                      80
                                                                                                                                        65
                                                                      60
                                                                                                                                                 46
                                                                                                                                                            39
                                                                      40
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                      20


                                                                       0




                                                                              Base : All respondents n=31972


                                                                                                                                                                   5
BOOKSCAN’S NINE INTERNATIONAL TERRITORIES
                                                                     A combined total of over 1 billion sales were measured in 2012
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                                                                                      6
BOOKSCAN’S NINE INTERNATIONAL TERRITORIES
                                                                     Only India showed year on year growth in 2012 – but the UK saw a shallow decline




                                                                                                   -7.2%        -3.4%


                                                                                                   -10.3%               -7.0%
                                                                             -9.3%
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                                                                                16.0%

                                                                                          ?                                                   -6.3%

                                                                                                            -8.8%
                                                                                                                                                 -3.7%
                                                                                                                                                         7
INTERNATIONAL SECTOR TRENDS
                                                                       The Non-Fiction sector is seeing the sharpest declines in major territories
                                                                       Year-on-year volume sales change across broad sectors



                                                                                                                                              US



                                                                                                                                              UK



                                                                                                                                          ROI
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                                                                                              IT



                                                                                                                                          AUS


                                                                     -20.0%            -15.0%              -10.0%              -5.0%           0.0%             5.0%   10.0%
                                                                                                     Total        Fiction       Non Fiction        Children's
                                                                                                                                                                               8
THE UK E-BOOK MARKET
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                          10%
                                                                                12%
                                                                                      14%
                                                                                            16%
                                                                                                  18%
                                                                                                        20%




                         0%
                                     2%
                                                4%
                                                           6%
                                                                     8%
          23-Jan-11

         20-Feb-11

        20-Mar-11

         17-Apr-11

        15-May-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Top-line overview



         12-Jun-11

           10-Jul-11

           7-Aug-11

           4-Sep-11

           2-Oct-11

         30-Oct-11

         27-Nov-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     UK DIGITAL PENETRATION




         25-Dec-11

          22-Jan-12

         19-Feb-12

        18-Mar-12
                                                                                                              Proportion of the UK population aged 13-79 that have bought an e-book: 2011-2012




         15-Apr-12

        13-May-12

         10-Jun-12

             8-Jul-12

           5-Aug-12

           2-Sep-12

         30-Sep-12

         28-Oct-12

         25-Nov-12

         23-Dec-12
10
EVOLUTION OF THE UK E-BOOK MARKET
                                                                      Value sales doubled year-on-year in 2012
                                                                      Rolling 52-week value sales and year-on-year penetration growth

                                                                     600%                                                                                   £180




                                                                                                                                                                   Millions
                                                                                                                                                            £160
                                                                     500%
                                                                                                                                                            £140
                                                                     400%                                                                                   £120
                                                                                                                                                            £100
                                                                     300%
                                                                                                                                                            £80
                                                                     200%                                                                                   £60
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                                                                                                            £40
                                                                     100%
                                                                                                                                                            £20
                                                                      0%                                                                                    £0



                                                                                            % Change                          Latest Year   Previous Year              11
UK 2012 VOLUME SALES
                                                                     Volume sales proportions by format

                                                                                    Fiction                                    Non-Fiction
                                                                                                                                8.4%

                                                                            27.0%

                                                                                                        Children’s
                                                                                                 6.5%
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                                                physical books       e-books                 12
UK 2012 VALUE SALES
                                                                     Value sales proportions by format

                                                                                  Fiction                                        Non-Fiction
                                                                                                                                3.9%
                                                                              16.9%



                                                                                                         Children’s
                                                                                                   4.7%
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                                                  physical books      e-books                  13
THE UK FICTION MARKET
                                                                          E-books drive volume growth
                                                                          Fiction – 52 week rolling volume sales

                                                                                120                                                2.4%
                                                                     Millions




                                                                                100

                                                                                80                                                 -15.0%

                                                                                60

                                                                                40
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                                20


                                                                                                              25-Dec-11                             23-Dec-12

                                                                                                                      Physical Books      e-books
                                                                                                                                                                14
THE UK FICTION MARKET
                                                                       E-books drive volume growth – but don’t deliver revenue growth
                                                                       Fiction – 52 week rolling value sales

                                                                                £600                                                    -3.6%
                                                                     Millions




                                                                                £500
                                                                                                                                      -13.4%
                                                                                £400

                                                                                £300

                                                                                £200
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                                £100

                                                                                  £0
                                                                                                               25-Dec-11                           23-Dec-12

                                                                                                                     Physical Books      e-books
                                                                                                                                                               15
E-BOOK AND PHYSICAL BOOK SELLING PRICES
                                                                        E-book prices have been driven down as penetration increases
                                                                        Rolling 52-week average selling price

                                                                     £7.00
                                                                     £6.50
                                                                     £6.00
                                                                     £5.50
                                                                              £2.38                                                       £3.21
                                                                     £5.00
                                                                     £4.50
                                                                     £4.00
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                     £3.50
                                                                     £3.00



                                                                                                                Physical Books   ebooks
                                                                                                                                                  16
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                     KEY FINDINGS
                                                                     From our international markets, including the US, Italy and the UK

                                                                     •   Print book markets worldwide continue to see decline
                                                                     •   E-book sales data is not yet broadly available – consumer data helps to
                                                                         bridge this gap
                                                                     •   US e-reader adoption is skewed towards an older, female demographic
                                                                     •   Italian e-reader adoption is stronger among a younger, male
                                                                         demographic
                                                                     •   In the UK e-books have rapidly taken a substantial proportion of the
                                                                         Fiction market, delivering volume growth – but this is not matched by
                                                                         revenue growth
                                                                     •   Whilst e-books become increasingly significant for the Fiction market,
                                                                         the Non-Fiction and Children’s sectors have not kept up
                                                                     •   E-book pricing is not only lower then physical books - it has been driven
                                                                         down as penetration has increased
                                                                                                                                                     17
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.




                                                                     KEY CHALLENGES
                                                                     In the developing digital space


                                                                     • How can publishers maintain (and grow) revenue as
                                                                       the migration to digital brings a new pressure to
                                                                       deliver low prices?
                                                                     • How can publishers develop compelling digital
                                                                       content for the Non-Fiction and Children’s markets?




                                                                                                                             18
david.walter@nielsen.com

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Nielsen - Evolving Markets and consumer e-book purchasing behavior

  • 1. EVOLVING MARKETS AND CONSUMER E-BOOK PURCHASING BEHAVIOUR David Walter 19 March 2013
  • 2. Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. • Context • Consumer Confidence and International Print Book Markets • Connected devices adoption • US and Italy e-reader and tablet penetration • Manufacturer market share • The UK e-book market • E-book penetration and the rate of change • The value of the e-book and print book market • E-book pricing and the consequence for print book prices 2
  • 4. Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 4
  • 5. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX – BOOKSCAN TERRITORIES Q4 2012 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index 160 140 121 120 111 100 95 94 Global average = 91 89 79 76 80 65 60 46 39 40 Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 20 0 Base : All respondents n=31972 5
  • 6. BOOKSCAN’S NINE INTERNATIONAL TERRITORIES A combined total of over 1 billion sales were measured in 2012 Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 6
  • 7. BOOKSCAN’S NINE INTERNATIONAL TERRITORIES Only India showed year on year growth in 2012 – but the UK saw a shallow decline -7.2% -3.4% -10.3% -7.0% -9.3% Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 16.0% ? -6.3% -8.8% -3.7% 7
  • 8. INTERNATIONAL SECTOR TRENDS The Non-Fiction sector is seeing the sharpest declines in major territories Year-on-year volume sales change across broad sectors US UK ROI Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. IT AUS -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Total Fiction Non Fiction Children's 8
  • 9. THE UK E-BOOK MARKET
  • 10. Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 23-Jan-11 20-Feb-11 20-Mar-11 17-Apr-11 15-May-11 Top-line overview 12-Jun-11 10-Jul-11 7-Aug-11 4-Sep-11 2-Oct-11 30-Oct-11 27-Nov-11 UK DIGITAL PENETRATION 25-Dec-11 22-Jan-12 19-Feb-12 18-Mar-12 Proportion of the UK population aged 13-79 that have bought an e-book: 2011-2012 15-Apr-12 13-May-12 10-Jun-12 8-Jul-12 5-Aug-12 2-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 28-Oct-12 25-Nov-12 23-Dec-12 10
  • 11. EVOLUTION OF THE UK E-BOOK MARKET Value sales doubled year-on-year in 2012 Rolling 52-week value sales and year-on-year penetration growth 600% £180 Millions £160 500% £140 400% £120 £100 300% £80 200% £60 Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. £40 100% £20 0% £0 % Change Latest Year Previous Year 11
  • 12. UK 2012 VOLUME SALES Volume sales proportions by format Fiction Non-Fiction 8.4% 27.0% Children’s 6.5% Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. physical books e-books 12
  • 13. UK 2012 VALUE SALES Value sales proportions by format Fiction Non-Fiction 3.9% 16.9% Children’s 4.7% Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. physical books e-books 13
  • 14. THE UK FICTION MARKET E-books drive volume growth Fiction – 52 week rolling volume sales 120 2.4% Millions 100 80 -15.0% 60 40 Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 20 25-Dec-11 23-Dec-12 Physical Books e-books 14
  • 15. THE UK FICTION MARKET E-books drive volume growth – but don’t deliver revenue growth Fiction – 52 week rolling value sales £600 -3.6% Millions £500 -13.4% £400 £300 £200 Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. £100 £0 25-Dec-11 23-Dec-12 Physical Books e-books 15
  • 16. E-BOOK AND PHYSICAL BOOK SELLING PRICES E-book prices have been driven down as penetration increases Rolling 52-week average selling price £7.00 £6.50 £6.00 £5.50 £2.38 £3.21 £5.00 £4.50 £4.00 Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. £3.50 £3.00 Physical Books ebooks 16
  • 17. Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. KEY FINDINGS From our international markets, including the US, Italy and the UK • Print book markets worldwide continue to see decline • E-book sales data is not yet broadly available – consumer data helps to bridge this gap • US e-reader adoption is skewed towards an older, female demographic • Italian e-reader adoption is stronger among a younger, male demographic • In the UK e-books have rapidly taken a substantial proportion of the Fiction market, delivering volume growth – but this is not matched by revenue growth • Whilst e-books become increasingly significant for the Fiction market, the Non-Fiction and Children’s sectors have not kept up • E-book pricing is not only lower then physical books - it has been driven down as penetration has increased 17
  • 18. Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. KEY CHALLENGES In the developing digital space • How can publishers maintain (and grow) revenue as the migration to digital brings a new pressure to deliver low prices? • How can publishers develop compelling digital content for the Non-Fiction and Children’s markets? 18