GEF: , Least Developed Countries Fund, Special Climate Change Fund The split between mitigation and adaptation is 95:5
The Stern ‘Review’: Climate change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen Three elements of policy are required for an effective response: carbon pricing, technology policy and energy efficiency The poorest countries suffer from CC the most Deforestation is responsible for more emissions than the transport sector Carbon pricing, through taxation, emissions trading or regulation, will show people the full social costs of their actions. The aim should be a global carbon price across countries and sectors
RCT at the village level, stratified to select 180 villages, securities offered to 120 village, 60 are the control Index-based insurance products have been regarded as having enormous potential to reach small farmers in developing countries as they reduce cost of loss verifications, eliminate moral hazard and adverse selection problems Ongoing study
Puri ifad climate_change
Climate Change Thematic Window Jo Puri Head of Evaluation Deputy Executive Director, 3ie www.3ieimpact.org
Overall Aim: Improve lives• Better evidence on what works and why• Improve awareness and accountability• Effective allocation of funds• Increase likelihood that CC interventions are able to contribute to reduced GHG emissions and increase resilience.
Climate Change Thematic Window• Combination of 15 impact evaluations and 5 systematic reviews• Can also include IEs requested by governments
Impact evaluation and policies Impact Evaluations Would it have Would it have Are there other Are there otherDid the programDid the program happened anyway? happened anyway? ways, that are ways, that arecause thecause the If the program caused If the program causedchange? cheaper to get the cheaper to get thechange? the effect, how much the effect, how much same impact? same impact? was the effect? was the effect?
Impact Evaluations– Efficacy and design– Effectiveness of interventions.– What can be scaled up? What can be/should be replicated?– Cost effectiveness of interventions– Trade-offs
Design: MARENA in Honduras• The MARENA programme better natural resource management• Impact of MARENA – Total farm output increased by $295 per year compared with non- participants from different villages – No spill over effects recorded
Are Protectedareaseffective?- Selectionbias inchoosing PAs(implications forPES)
NORTHTHAILAND Elevat.shp Elevat.shp Elevat.shp Roads (1982) and 1 - 1000 feet 1000 - 3500 feet Forests Of North Thailand (1986) 3500 - 6000 feet 6000 - 7700 feet 9
Data• Combination of cross-sectional spatially explicit raster (1:1m) and vector layers and district level census data.• Physiographic: Elevation (DEM), Slope• Soil (FAO)• Socio-Economic: Population density• Cost of Travel to the market; Roads (DCW)• Protected Areas (IUCN), 11• Land Use
Cleared Land (Y1 = 1) T- Stats Slope (degrees) -0.088 -10.652 Elevation (ms.) -0.001 -8.095 Population density1990 0.003 4.532 (people/km2) Log(cost) (1982)** -0.191 -9.729 Soil and Province Dummies Not ShownProtected Area dummy (1986) -0.077 -0.332 Constant 1.295 8.870 Protected Area (Y2 = 1) Equation Slope (Degrees) 0.034 5.297 Elevation (ms.) 0.001 9.058 Population density1990 0.001 2.297 (people/km2) Log(cost) (1982) 0.192 7.477 Soil and Province Dummies Not Shown Watershed dummy 0.188 3.543 Constant -4.098 -14.010 Log Likelihood -3714.7 No. of observations 4946 12
Systematic Reviews• A policy relevant synthesis of evidence on effectiveness of a particular intervention• An unbiased assessment• All available high quality/ scientific evidence.• Create a gap map (assessment of evidence)• Highlight areas where there is lack of high quality evidence and recommendations for further research.
Quality of Labour Treatment Take-up, retention. life and well- Household Participation/ Access, Service erventions / Outcomes Awareness, knowledge Attitudes and Beliefs Risk behaviour / skills HIV transmission adherence Morbidity Mortality being well-being productivity Empowerment Stigma quality Peer Education Prevention for heterosexual men Behaviour change interventions for women ICT for youth Reducing stigma Prevention for heterosexual men Peer intervetions Couples-focused behavioural interventions Challenges in HIV prevention research Prevention in occupational settings Peer intervetions ICT for youth Condom use for HIV positive women Behaviour interventions for prevention Prevention in Latin America Peer Education ICT for youth Prevention in heterosexual men Prevention in occupational settings Behaviour change Behaviour interventions for prevention School based interventions for youth interventions Influence of social agents Peer interventions Prevention in Latin America ICT for youth Prevention in occupational settings School based interventions for youthndom promotion Prevention for youth in Africatribution Peer-based Increasing youths use of health Educating traditional Peer-based interventions Educating traditional healers School-based sexual health in Africa Educating traditional healers Prevention for youth in Africa Peer-based interventions for HIV positive women interventions for HIV services healers for HIV positive women positive women Peer-led sexual health education for Peer-based interventions for HIV School-based sexual health in Africa Prevention for youth in Africa Prevention in African youth Reducing stigma youth positive women Peer-led adolescent sexual health School-based sexual health intervetions in Outcomes Life skills education for youth Girls education education Africa Parent-child communication in Peer-based interventions for HIVnformation, education Life skills education for youth Africa Peer-led sexual health education for youth positive women and communication Life skills education for youth Parent-child communication in Africa Prevention in African youth Girls education Peer-based interventions for HIV positive women Mass communication programmesMass communication Mass media for young people Increasing youths use of health services ommunity education, Community interventions for youth Reducing stigma mobilisation Behaviour interventions for prevention Counselling for HIV testing of pregnant women Family planning Home-based VCT Family planning Integrating PMTCT with health Routine vs. voluntary testing VCT Routine vs. voluntary testing services HIV Testing and Counselling for testing of pregnant women Family planning Counselling Rapid T and C for pregnant women Counselling for testing of pregnant women Routine vs. voluntary testing Rapid T & C for pregnant women Integrating PMTCT with other health Counselling for HIV testing of pregnant women evention of Mother to services Child Transmission Counselling for testing of pregnant women Challenges in HIV prevention researchomedical interventions Population based biomedical interventions for STI control What Male circumcision Nurses ART Impact of treatment on risk behaviour Childrens adherence to ART Non-clinincal outcomes of ART managementAntiretroviral Therapy Nurses for ART management Task shifting in Africa Family-centred treatment for HIV Family support color is Psychosocial well-being HIV affected children Palliative care Task shifting in Africa Palliative care your positive children Treatment and Care Family-centred Self-management Patient adherence treatment for HIV Task shifting in Africa interventions positive children Family-centred cell? Self-management treatment for HIV interventions positive children Integrated HIV and TB Service delivery Integrating PMTCT with health Task shifting in Africa Task shifting in Africa in Africa services Health Systems Increasing youths use of health Integrated HIV and TB Integrated HIV and TB Service delivery in Africa services Service delivery in Africa Harm reduction for involuntary Peer-education Peer-education detainees Harm reduction for involuntary Prevention interventions for female sex Behaviour interventions for prevention detainees workers Prevention interventions for female sex Harm reduction for involuntary detainees workers Key populations Male circumcision for prevention of Behaviour interventions for sex workers homosexual acquisition Harm reduction for involuntary detainees Behaviour interventions for sex workersnterventions to reduce Reducing stigma Reducing stigma Reducing stigma HIV/AIDS stigma Reducing stigmatructural Interventions Economic interventions for Economic interventions for HIV prevention Challenges in HIV prevention research HIV preventionconomic Interventions Economic interventions for HIV prevention
Climate Change: The evidence gap• There are only 60 IEs...(continuing)• Only 8 SRs directly related.
Best bang for your buck? Organization Funds Areas of Intervention GEF $755.5 million (2012) Energy efficiency, Renewable Energy, Sustainable Transport sustainable forestry WBG $3,300 million (2009) Renewable energy, disaster risk reduction UNDP $400 million (2008- Mainstreaming climate change, and support 2012) of mitigation and adaptation projects UNEP $50.96 million (2012) adaptation capacity, clean technologies, climate communications and outreach UN-REDD $108 million (2008- Forestry initiatives 2011) Others Investments include developing solar panel(OECD, DFID) and clean coal technology, fishery science, and others
Significance• There is a big gap between the requirement and availability of funds. – Required $500 bn – Available $95 bn• Different country blocs have different requirements and resources• Multiple outcomes
Urgent and Timely• International agenda: GCF and SDGs.• Small Island Developing States• Stern report and IPCC report: Science is well known but what works in terms of uptake?• Next few meetings should be better informed: • GEF in 2014; • COP 20 in eastern Europe. • Roadmap for 2015 (Copenhagen)
Reduction in Vulnerability in West Bengal• This 3ie funded study recommended that the government reduce costs for small farmers to acquire electric pumps• This policy is now being implemented by the state government• External validity
Short to Intermediate Outputs of the Climate Change Thematic Window Briefing document andOCTOBER/ research agendaNOVEMBER 2012 finalised Preliminary evidence gap-map on CC adaptation and mitigationFEBRUARY 2013 Final evidence gap- map available on 3ie website.FEBRUARY 2014 Draft reports of five systematic reviews
Short to Intermediate Outputs of the Climate Change Thematic Window Efficacy/quick IEs results MAY 2014 Midline reports andNOVEMBER 2014 process evaluations of ONWARDS funded impact evaluations start to become available Draft final reports ofNOVEMBER 2015 funded impact ONWARDS evaluations start to become available
Longer term Outputs of the Climate Change Thematic WindowOCTOBER 2017 Systematic reviews updated with new evidence available Increase in availability and use of evidence high quality evidence to inform climate change programming
Weather Insurance: Smallholder Farmer Access to Weather Securities• Ongoing 3ie funded study that offers weather securities to farmers in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh• Main impact question – What is the impact of access of weather securities on a smallholder farmer’s consumption and production decisions?
Community Driven Development in Sierra Leone• The CDD seeks to build social capital, trust and capacity for collective action in the communities where it works• This study adds to the growing body of evidence that these projects do not build social cohesion
T-statistic for Treatment Comparison test ofAttribute Group Group Difference Mean Mean (Comparison – Treatment)% with public transport available all day 93% 89% -1.19No. of days roads are closed 3.9 6.6 2.60**No. using transportation to reach a 2.1 2.1 0.04primary schoolPayment for transportation to Primary 58 74.5 1.84*school (Quetzales per month)Avg. time taken to reach school (non- 18.4 19.2 0.77primary)Avg. amt. paid for transportation to 68.3 81.2 1.6*non-primary school (QuetzalsAvg. time taken to reach a health center 51 53 0.6(any) – MinutesAvg. amt. paid for transportation to 33 90 2.85**reach a health facility (Quetzales)Average distance traveled to get wood. 68 62 -1.3*(Minutes)Time taken to reach work 42 50 1.25* 33