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IAQM AGM 2015 - Nick Molden - Insights from Real World Emissions Testing in context of Defra Consultation

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Nick Molden presents on Defra's air quality plans at the IAQM's annual general meeting.

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IAQM AGM 2015 - Nick Molden - Insights from Real World Emissions Testing in context of Defra Consultation

  1. 1. Insights from real-world emissions testing in context of DEFRA consultation Nick Molden 12 November 2015
  2. 2. 2 • Founded in 2011 • Headquartered in Winchester, with operations in London and Los Angeles • 10 employees, currently expanding in EU • Specialist in PEMS testing and data analysis • 1000 vehicles tested • Expert in high-efficiency real-world data collection • RDE-compatible testing conducted since 2011 • Works with OEMs, Tier 1 suppliers, fuel and chemical companies, regulators, consultancies, consumer media Emissions Analytics’ credentials
  3. 3. 3 Benefits of PEMS • Real on-road testing using PEMS is a powerful research method • Authentic and cost effective • Works on all vehicle types • No permanent vehicle modification required • Flexible location • High rate of data acquisition – 1 Hertz • Precision approaching laboratory levels
  4. 4. 4 Equipment • SEMTECH-DS and Ecostar-FEM • Portable Emissions Measurement System connects to tailpipe • Captures emissions for CO2, CO, NO, NO2, total hydrocarbons • At 1 Hertz • Air temperature, pressure, humidity • GPS for speed and altitude • Engine data via CANBUS • Fuel economy derived via carbon balance • Weight addition 100-250 pounds
  5. 5. INSIGHTS ON REAL-WORLD NOx 5
  6. 6. 6 ICCT report
  7. 7. 7 • Euro 5 and 6 diesels • Rolling 12-month average of exceedance factor • Step-change improvement from Q2 2014 • But recent trend less clear • 5 have met standard • Spikes due to 4x4s NOx latest trends (1) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 02-11-11 02-01-12 02-03-12 02-05-12 02-07-12 02-09-12 02-11-12 02-01-13 02-03-13 02-05-13 02-07-13 02-09-13 02-11-13 02-01-14 02-03-14 02-05-14 02-07-14 02-09-14 02-11-14 02-01-15 02-03-15 02-05-15 ExceedanceFactor
  8. 8. 8 • Real-world reductions more impressive • Many now meeting Euro 5 standard • Tightening regulations reducing divergence in results • Although still occasional outliers NOx latest trends (2) 0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 Real-worldNOx(g/km)
  9. 9. 9 • Gasoline considered not to have NOx problem • 21% of vehicles exceed limit • Slightly upwards trend • Large engines and larger vehicles account for most vehicles exceeding limit NOx latest trends (3) 0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 02-11-11 02-12-11 02-01-12 02-02-12 02-03-12 02-04-12 02-05-12 02-06-12 02-07-12 02-08-12 02-09-12 02-10-12 02-11-12 02-12-12 02-01-13 02-02-13 02-03-13 02-04-13 02-05-13 02-06-13 02-07-13 02-08-13 02-09-13 02-10-13 Real-worldNOx(g/km)
  10. 10. 10 • Not regulated • But important for road- side pollution • Latest results suggest NO2 levels meet total NOx regulated level on average • Very low fNO2 is possible with certain after- treatment systems NO2 latest trends 0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 02-11-11 02-01-12 02-03-12 02-05-12 02-07-12 02-09-12 02-11-12 02-01-13 02-03-13 02-05-13 02-07-13 02-09-13 02-11-13 02-01-14 02-03-14 02-05-14 02-07-14 02-09-14 02-11-14 02-01-15 02-03-15 02-05-15 Real-worldNOx(g/km)
  11. 11. 11 • From Emissions Analytics’ database, at OEM level • Based on 410 tests • Diesel Euro 6 emissions falling – down from 5.1 conformity factor in Q1 NOx key statistics Diesel Euro 5 Diesel Euro 6 Gasoline Euro 5/6 Real-world NOx (g/km) 0.773 0.299 0.049 Average Conformity Factor 4.3 3.7 0.8 fNO2 – minimum % 27 17 0 fNO2 – mean % 44 48 24 fNO2 – maximum % 66 80 72 fNO2 % – standard deviation 14.5 19.4 27.7
  12. 12. 12 Cold start and DPF regeneration • Define cold start event • Continuous event from coolant temperature low point up to full operation temperature • Compare to similar cycle wholly at full operating temperature (1.0 = no uplift) • 18% larger uplift for Euro 6 diesels than Euro 5s • Gasoline has much higher uplift but on a low base • Compare DPF regeneration to repeat immediately afterwards • 37% average increase in NOx emissions during event • NO2 significantly lower during event – 70% down on average Diesel Euro 5 Diesel Euro 6 Gasoline Euro 5/6 Cold start uplift ratio 1.4 1.6 3.0 DPF regeneration uplift ratio 1.4 n/a n/a
  13. 13. 13 Prospects for Real Driving Emissions • How effective will the new NOx regulations be? An improvement, but not that strict • 80 mg/km NOx limit for diesels, compared to 31 mg/km in the US • Add 2.1 conformity factor (1.5 from 2020/1) • Add effect of boundary conditions, transfer function • Add delay for all new models until 2019 • Add speed of propagation of new models through car parc • Effect is a limit in real-world driving of 168+ mg/km • But manufacturers will have to target a lower level due to measurement variability • Estimated at ~30% by Joint Research Centre • So effective target of 129+ mg/km • x1.6 the diesel limit; x2.9 real-world gasoline
  14. 14. 14 • Proposed real-world limits marked with dotted lines • 29% of Euro 6 diesels tested already meet 2017/19 limit • Some after-treatment systems proven to be effective in real-world • Net effect of regulation not as strict as required? Regulated levels 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Sep-2011 Apr-2012 Oct-2012 May-2013 Nov-2013 Jun-2014 Dec-2014 Jul-2015 NOx(g/km) Test date Euro 5 Euro 6 Euro 5 2020/21 Euro 6 2017/19
  15. 15. FUEL ECONOMY CONTEXT 15
  16. 16. 16 • Gap between official and real-world fuel economy due to limitations of official cycle • Was growing by ~2% points per year • Latest data suggests slowing of gap growth • But also falls on absolute fuel economy • Due to effect of Euro 6? • Creating a CO2 problem? A growing gap? -24.0% -22.0% -20.0% -18.0% -16.0% -14.0% -12.0% -10.0% 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 VarianceofTrueMPGtoofficialcombined Combinedfueleconomy Model Year
  17. 17. Nick Molden, Chief Executive Officer nick@emissionsanalytics.com +44 (0) 20 7193 0489 +44 (0) 7765 105902 17

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