Professor David Leonard, Sussex Development Lecuture, Feb 2012


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Professor David Leonard, Sussex Development Lecuture, Feb 2012

  1. 1. Finding Order in Countries withWeak States: The Dilemma of the Somali Polities David K. Leonard Governance Team IDS
  2. 2. The Questions• The former Somalia has not had an effective state since 1991.• What are the causes and consequences of this statelessness?• How can an acceptable level of human security and order be found in these circumstances?
  3. 3. Eastern Africa
  4. 4. The Somali Polities Under Colonialism,• Somalis are a distinct ethnic group, with their own language and culture.• Largely pastoralist• Historically stateless• British Somaliland and (Italian) Somalia• (French) Djibouti• Significant numbers in Ethiopia (Ogaden) & Kenya (North-east Province)
  5. 5. Somali Territories
  6. 6. Current Somali Polities• Djibouti (Somali dominated)• Somaliland (reasserted indepin 1991)• Transitional Federal Government – Mogadishu – Puntland (autonomous) – Mudug (autonomous)• Islamist (Kismayu and south-central)• Ethiopian Region V and Kenyan North-east
  7. 7. Livelihoods Under Statelessness• Livestock production and trade OK• Fishing hurt by EU toxic dumping• Inter-riverine crop production hurt and thus famine in south• Service infrastructure hurt as tax base is weak• Overall – probably better in north than under Barre’s state
  8. 8. Governance without States?• Order maintained by clan-based diya-paying groups of ca. 100 adult males• Tit-for-tat• Governance is highly egalitarian• But now also distorted by military and commercial patrons – Business  Militias not v.v.• Contract enforcement through shariacourts
  9. 9. Location of Major Clan Families in 1950s
  10. 10. Islam: Not Whether but What Type• A good business partner is a good Muslim• All Sunnis, but in south – Sufis AhluSunnaWaljamaa – Wahabisal-Shabab
  11. 11. Failure of State-building from Above• Continuous international efforts since 1991 to recreate the Somalia state• All based on elite bargains and all have failed• Most recent is Transitional Federal Government (2004)• Ethiopian incursion of 2006 ended in failure and withdrawal• African Union stalled under Burundi & Uganda• Kenyan incursion of south?
  12. 12. Successful Governance from the Bottom• Somaliland – elders  elder delegates in +4 month negotiations (1991-1993)• Puntland – in +3 month negotiations (1998) supported by militia leadership• SSC (Sool, Sanaag and Cayn) – looks 2 ways• Galmudug -- AhluSunnaWaljamaa&Hawiye clan• Kismayu and south – al Shabaab/ Hizbul Islam
  13. 13. Encouraging Governance• Interpeace (WSP); Bryden, Menkhaus• From the bottom• Without worrying about UN statehood, size or regularity• Encouraging through UN trust fund aid to whatever is working
  14. 14. Challenges -- Piracy• Puntland• Eyl but• Money & power• Don’t want to force into Islamist hands• More effective NATO corridors
  15. 15. Challenges – Terrorism in Kenya• Legitimate Kenyan interests• Now supported by Ethiopia (& US)• But can it succeed or will it exacerbate?• Negotiations inhibited by unwillingness to deal with Islamist polities or by lack of internal control?• Counter-attacks by drone?