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Gabriele Koehler SDL Lecture PowerPoint: Part 1


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Gabriele Koehler SDL Lecture PowerPoint: Part 1

  1. 1.   Some new trends in development cooperation – nightmares and dreams? Gabriele Köhler Visiting Fellow, Vulnerability and Poverty Reduction Team, IDS, Sussex IDS Sussex Sussex development lecture Brighton, 12 May 2011
  2. 2. Overview: <ul><li>1) Where are we? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>poverty, exclusion, acute crises </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2) Evolution of the development cooperation architecture </li></ul><ul><ul><li>six phases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3) Nightmares and dreams </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>resulting from the „bipolar“ architecture </li></ul></ul><ul><li>4) The case for a bold vision </li></ul><ul><ul><li>rights-based, universalist, transformative </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Where are we? human development &income poverty <ul><li>Human development at aggregate level: </li></ul><ul><li>slow but steady improvement </li></ul>
  4. 4. Where are we? human development &income poverty <ul><li>Absolute number and share of extremely poor people has declined since 1990 globally </li></ul>
  5. 5. Where are we? Income poverty & human development <ul><li>But: number of extremely poor in Africa and South Asia increased </li></ul><ul><ul><li>using $1.25 per personday income poverty measure </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Number of poor and vulnerable people : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2.5 billion persons </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>using $2 per personday income poverty measure </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Where are we? Systemic social exclusions & intersecting inequalities in North and South <ul><li>Economic inequalities </li></ul><ul><li>Social inequalities </li></ul><ul><li>Gender and age inequalities </li></ul><ul><li>Spatial inequalities </li></ul><ul><li>Political inequalities </li></ul>
  7. 7. Where are we? Economic, fiscal, climate crises <ul><li>at least 100 million more people hungry and undernourished </li></ul><ul><li>an estimated 64 million more people in income poverty </li></ul><ul><li>205 million people unemployed </li></ul><ul><li>at least 55,000 more children likely to die each year from 2009 to 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>175 million children affected by climate change </li></ul>
  8. 8. Where are we? Converging North and South <ul><li>MDG outcomes worst among socially excluded groups – in North and South </li></ul><ul><li>Income gap widening </li></ul><ul><li>Human development gap widening within countries </li></ul>
  9. 9. Evolution of development architecture Phase I: Colonial administration (1900s – 1950s) <ul><li>Predominant ideology: </li></ul><ul><li>Spreading „progress“ and „civilisation“ </li></ul><ul><li>Driving forces: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Colonial regimes for economic gain </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Colonial regimes for resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Colonial regimes for power </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Evolution of development architecture Phase II: Independence movements & „development aid“ (1960-1980) <ul><ul><li>Predominant ideology: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Transfer capital and technology to the capital-deficient South – economistic approach to development </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Keynesian economics </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>State led growth </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Driving forces: </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>independence movements in the South </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>post-war recovery, affluence, guilt in the North – </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Re- nascent globalisation </li></ul></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Evolution of development architecture Phase III: structural adjustment (1980s – 1989/1990 and beyond) <ul><ul><li>Predominant ideology: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Overstating role of marktes, downplaying the role of the state, intervening in developing country governments‘ policy space </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Driving forces: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic and political strength of the developed countries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interest in „South“ for markets, production – global value chains </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Debt crisis in the South </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Evolution of development architecture Phase IV: Cooperation as “partnerships” (1990s – 2000) <ul><ul><li>Predominant ideology: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>End of the „cold war“ : rebalancing of power </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Seeming collapse of state-led development </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Series of UN global summits - </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Social development theme </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Driving forces: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>greater economic dependence of the North on the South </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emerging South North trade and investment </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. Evolution of development architecture Phase V: MDGs; Aid Effectiveness (2000 – 2008) <ul><ul><li>Predominant ideologies: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>push for human development </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>focus on social development – different from economistic approaches of the 1960s </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>development onus on the South </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>the „bad governance“ discourse </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Driving forces: economic & political polarisation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Stalled progress on human development; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Slow economic growth – or jobless growth; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple social exclusions; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Accelerating domestic conflicts; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Climate change and accelerating frequency of disasters </li></ul></ul></ul>
  14. 15. Evolution of development architecture Phase VI: Bipolar development since 2008 <ul><ul><li>Drivers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emerging BRIC(S) donors with export success, outward investment, sovereign funds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>G-20, pushing „G-192“ aside </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New bilateral donors changing the donor landscape </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Private foundations - more grants available </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Predominant ideology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ Pluri-pragmatism” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>One size fits all versus national ownership & policy space </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Growth and human development </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Overemphasis on evidence based policy-making versus analytical and policy debates </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>versus grand design and visions of social justice </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  15. 16. s Countries of the world estimated GDP in purchasing power parity, 2010