Making Information Pay 2010


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Making Information Pay 2010

  1. 1. Points of No Return<br />Mike Shatzkin<br />Making Information Pay<br />May 6, 2010<br />
  2. 2. My view: coming change dwarfs recent change<br />Ebooks headed for 25% share of new narrative books soon (end of 2012?)<br />Total online sales for those books will then exceed brick-and-mortar sales<br />Entirely new publishing models enabled (ebook first and POD)<br />Disintermediation becomes a real threat<br />Traditional business will have to shrink fast<br />
  3. 3. Inside the publishing houses<br />Ebook first development will occur, then grow, then become dominant <br />Brick-and-mortar will shrink gradually, then suddenly: drastic implications for sales and operations<br />Ebook royalties of 25% become unsustainable<br />Single title marketing: for authors and mega-books only<br />Consolidation occurs in many forms<br />
  4. 4. How are people reacting to change?Pretty optimistically…<br />Most feel fundamental change has happened (31%) or is happening now (45%)<br />Most feel their job skills will “match the industry’s future needs” (62% to 20% who don’t think so)<br />Half (52%) expect our business to become more profitable<br />Of those responding, half think we’ll have more jobs as a result of change, not fewer<br />
  5. 5. Some clouds in the blue sky<br />Nearly half (48%) think their companies need to provide “more education”<br />Profound change in editorial will blindside many people (a comment: “editing is editing”); only 59% expect “fundamental change” in editorial<br />20% do not think their skills will fit future industry needs<br />
  6. 6. Fun with “buzzwords”<br />Big majority (62%) say Twitter is a “fad, soon to pass”(!)<br />More than a third (38%) say that about “free as a price point”<br />More than a quarter (28%) say that about “crowd sourcing”<br />Long term trends: digital marketing, web analytics, publishing in vertical niches (75+%)<br />
  7. 7. Today’s program: before the breakExperts deliver data and insight<br />Kelly Gallagher of Bowker: what consumers are saying about change<br />David Guenette of Gilbane: the 7 essential systems for publishers<br />George Lossius of Publishing Technology: investment decisions in a time of rapid change<br />Jabin White of Wolters Kluwer: how change affects the people who are part of it<br />Steve Walker of SBS Worldwide (sponsor): supply chain cost savings<br />
  8. 8. Today’s program: after the breakPublishers in the trenches<br />John Konczal of Sterling Commerce (sponsor): tools to enable new business models<br />Bruce Shaw & Adam Salomone of Harvard Common Press: editors acquiring for a portfolio<br />Phil Madans of Hachette: workflow shift from “assembly line” to “collaboration”<br />Matt Baldacci of Macmillan: the shift in marketing spending and skills<br />Maureen McMahon of Kaplan: connecting, not closing and new hiring criteria for sales<br />