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Intención de voto enIntención de voto en
España 1978-2013spa a 9 8 0 3
¿Una Segunda Transición¿ g
hacia una política
extra...
Intención de voto en EspañaIntención de voto en España
(1996-2013)(1996 2013)
HipótesisHipótesis
• H1: Existen dos puntos de inflexiónH1: Existen dos puntos de inflexión
donde tres variables cambian d...
DatosDatos
• Datos:Datos:
Intención de voto; CIS 1978-2013Intención de voto; CIS, 1978-2013,
trimestral, 132 valores.
• In...
MetodologíaMetodología
• Evolución de covarianzasEvolución de covarianzas
• Análisis univariante de la varianza• Análisis ...
ANOVAANOVA
ERA I a II
NI=61 NII=33
Modelo
(Levene) ERA Variable indep. V.indep x ERA( ) p p
PPSOE ,000 ,857 ,023 NOPPSOE ,...
ARIMAARIMA
ERA I a II
NI=61 NII=33 Identificación Ljung-Box Variable ERA
PPSOE ARIMA(0,0,0) ,000 ,000 ,000
NOPPSOE ARIMA(0...
ConclusionesConclusiones
• Puntos de inflexión significativosPuntos de inflexión significativos.
• Convergencia pax bipart...
Sevilla 19 de septiembre de 2013 XI Congreso de la AECPASevilla, 19 de septiembre de 2013. XI Congreso de la AECPA
Para ci...
Intención de voto en España 1978-2013. ¿Una Segunda Transición hacia una política extra-representativa?
Intención de voto en España 1978-2013. ¿Una Segunda Transición hacia una política extra-representativa?
Intención de voto en España 1978-2013. ¿Una Segunda Transición hacia una política extra-representativa?
Intención de voto en España 1978-2013. ¿Una Segunda Transición hacia una política extra-representativa?
Intención de voto en España 1978-2013. ¿Una Segunda Transición hacia una política extra-representativa?
Intención de voto en España 1978-2013. ¿Una Segunda Transición hacia una política extra-representativa?
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Intención de voto en España 1978-2013. ¿Una Segunda Transición hacia una política extra-representativa?

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Peña-López, Ismael (2013) Intención de voto en España 1978-2013 ¿Una Segunda Transición hacia una política extra-representativa? XI Congreso de la AECPA. 18-20 de septiembre de 2013. Sevilla: AECPA

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Intención de voto en España 1978-2013. ¿Una Segunda Transición hacia una política extra-representativa?

  1. 1. Intención de voto enIntención de voto en España 1978-2013spa a 9 8 0 3 ¿Una Segunda Transición¿ g hacia una política extra-representativa? Ismael Peña-López @ictlogist Universitat Oberta de Catalunya XI C d l AECPAXI Congreso de la AECPA Sevilla, 19 de septiembre de 2013
  2. 2. Intención de voto en EspañaIntención de voto en España (1996-2013)(1996 2013)
  3. 3. HipótesisHipótesis • H1: Existen dos puntos de inflexiónH1: Existen dos puntos de inflexión donde tres variables cambian de tendencia. • H2: A partir de abril de 2004, y en intención de voto, caída del bipartidismo yintención de voto, caída del bipartidismo y auges de la desafección política. • H3: Los cambios no tienen que ver con el 15M.
  4. 4. DatosDatos • Datos:Datos: Intención de voto; CIS 1978-2013Intención de voto; CIS, 1978-2013, trimestral, 132 valores. • Indicadores: PPSOE, NOPPSOE, ABSTBLANCO
  5. 5. MetodologíaMetodología • Evolución de covarianzasEvolución de covarianzas • Análisis univariante de la varianza• Análisis univariante de la varianza (ANOVA) • Análisis de autocorrelaciones (ACF) y autocorrelaciones parciales (PACF) • Modelos autorregresivos integrados de media móvil (ARIMA)media móvil (ARIMA)
  6. 6. ANOVAANOVA ERA I a II NI=61 NII=33 Modelo (Levene) ERA Variable indep. V.indep x ERA( ) p p PPSOE ,000 ,857 ,023 NOPPSOE ,139 PPSOE ,000 ,474 ,074 ABSBLANCO ,342 NOPPSOE 000 886 08 SO 972NOPPSOE ,000 ,886 ,084 PPSOE ,972 NOPPSOE ,000 ,991 ,103 ABSTBLANCO ,416 ABSTBLANCO ,304 ,247 ,081 PPSOE ,390 ABSTBLANCO ,075 ,032 ,038 NOPPSOE ,130 ERA II a III Modelo NII=33 NIII=38 (Levene) ERA Variable indep. V.indep x ERA PPSOE ,000 ,000 ,000 NOPPSOE ,000 PPSOE ,132 ,000 ,000 ABSBLANCO ,000, , , , NOPPSOE ,275 ,848 ,004 PPSOE ,896 NOPPSOE ,429 ,000 ,909 ABSTBLANCO ,000 ABSTBLANCO 368 027 000 PPSOE 088ABSTBLANCO ,368 ,027 ,000 PPSOE ,088 ABSTBLANCO ,001 ,000 ,000 NOPPSOE ,000 ANOVA La 1ªcolumna denota la variable dependiente. Los valores numéricos la significatividad.
  7. 7. ARIMAARIMA ERA I a II NI=61 NII=33 Identificación Ljung-Box Variable ERA PPSOE ARIMA(0,0,0) ,000 ,000 ,000 NOPPSOE ARIMA(0 0 0) 000 000 000NOPPSOE ARIMA(0,0,0) ,000 ,000 ,000 ABSTBLANCO ARIMA(0,0,0) ,016 ,000 ,000 ERA II a III NII=33 NIII=38 Identificación Ljung-Box Variable ERA PPSOE ARIMA(1 0 0) 479 813* 000PPSOE ARIMA(1,0,0) ,479 ,813 ,000** ,000 NOPPSOE ARIMA(1,1,0) ,150 ,036* ,028 ,001** ABSTBLANCO ARIMA(0,0,0) ,016 ,105 ,000 ARIMA Los valores numéricos el nivel de significatividad. *: Sin retardo. **: Con retardo
  8. 8. ConclusionesConclusiones • Puntos de inflexión significativosPuntos de inflexión significativos. • Convergencia pax bipartita desafección• Convergencia, pax bipartita, desafección. • ¿El 11 14M2004 como desencadenante?• ¿El 11-14M2004 como desencadenante? • ¿El 15M2011 como “prueba piloto”?• ¿El 15M2011 como prueba piloto”? Nueva participación extra representativa• Nueva participación extra-representativa.
  9. 9. Sevilla 19 de septiembre de 2013 XI Congreso de la AECPASevilla, 19 de septiembre de 2013. XI Congreso de la AECPA Para citar esta obra: Peña-López, Ismael (2013) Intención de voto en España 1978-2013 ¿Una Segundae a ópe , s ae ( 0 3) te c ó de oto e spa a 9 8 0 3 ¿U a Segu da Transición hacia una política extra-representativa? XI Congreso de la AECPA. 18-20 de septiembre de 2013. Sevilla: AECPA DDescargas: Texto completo: http://ictlogy net/articles/http://ictlogy.net/articles/ 20130919_ismael_pena-lopez_intencion_voto_espana_1978-2013_segunda_transicion_politica_extra-representativa.pdf Presentación: http://ictlogy.net/presentations/ 20130919_ismael_pena-lopez_intencion_voto_espana_1978-2013_segunda_transicion_politica_extra- representativa_presentacion.pdf Bibliografía: http://b.ictlogy.net/88 P t t l t Toda la información presentada en este documento se encuentra bajo una Licencia Creative Commons del tipo Reconocimiento – No Comercial – Sin Obras Para contactar con el autor: http://ictlogy.net Derivadas Para más información visitad http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/

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