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ICRISAT Global Planning Meeting 2019: Impact Assessment @ ICRISAT by Kizito Mazvimavi and team

  1. Kizito Mazvimavi, Kumara Charyulu D. Conrad Murendo, and Asnake Fikre Impact Assessment @ ICRISAT
  2. Introduction • The outputs from impact assessment studies provide essential insights and feedback to the research and development process at ICRISAT. • The majority of ex-post impact assessment studies at ICRISAT have focused on the impacts of genetic improvement of mandate crops. • Impact assessment of Chickpea in Andhra Pradesh, • HPRC – pearl millet in India, • Groundnut development in Malawi, • Sorghum in Mali, • Sorghum in Tanzania, and • Pigeon Pea in Tanzania. • Some work on on impacts of Natural Resources Management, • Watershed Program in India, and China, Microdosing in Niger and Zimbabwe. • Use of new methods on assessing impacts of natural resources management, crop-livestock research and policy-oriented research programs (eg. Village Levels Studies) • Support from Standing Panel on Impact Assessment (SPIA)
  3. Impacts of crop management research Adoption and profitability impacts of improved varieties ICRISAT has moved with expanded agenda of Impact Assessment (IA) research Distribution, food security and poverty impacts Intersectoral linkages, spillover benefits and capacity building 1970 1980 1990 2000 20101972 Ex-post IA Sets 1, 2 & 3 ?? 2020 Need for sustained resource support
  4. Study Highlights 2018 Ethiopia and Myanmar
  5. Chickpea in Ethiopia • Introduction • The climatic conditions in Ethiopia make it very suitable for growing chickpeas. • Chickpea is widely grown across the highlands and semi-arid regions of Ethiopia and serves as a multi-purpose crop. • Considered as the secondary centre of diversity for chickpea. • Being exported to Asian countries and is contributing positively to the country’s foreign exchange earnings. • Currently, chickpea is cultivated in four regions of the country, Amhara, Oromia, Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR) and Tigray. Amhara and Oromia regions together produce 93% of total chickpea production in Ethiopia while SNNPR and Tigray produce 3.5% and 3%, respectively. • The area coverage and the importance of the crop in the country are expected to increase in the future. • More than Ten improved chickpea varieties have been released. • But, insufficient seed production has limited the availability of quality seeds and the adoption of improved varieties. • Various initiatives have been started to accelerate the adoption of improved chickpea varieties in Ethiopia. • The Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) • The Debre Zeit Agricultural Research Centre (DZARC) started work on chickpea research in 1972 • Amhara Regional Agricultural Research Institute (ARARI) and the Oromiya Regional Research Institute (ORARI). • The International Center for Agricultural Research in Drylands (ICARDA) and the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) provided genetic materials used in the breeding program, elite materials ready for release and technical assistance in the entire breeding cycle. • Most of this research has focused on identifying high yielding and disease resistant varieties suitable for the diverse agro-ecologies of Ethiopia. • The Tropical Legumes II (TLII) development program has conducted various chickpea research and development activities, including the establishment of seed grower associations
  6. Background - Ethiopia 617015 494306 13981218 Africa ESA Global 5990 116399 115126 239755 8690 8090 25 33295 62 27 72564 39 8000 1834 5724 AFRICA 2014 15 African countries, 8 in ESA, TEM accounts 95.9% of 8 out of 15 countries in Africa are located in ESA and accounts for >95% of chickpea in the continent (~500000ha) Despite its relevance in • Climate resilience/ standing • Nutritional gap filling • Cropping system intensification • Home economic rehabilitation • Sustainability of agriculture, there is big gap in technology, intervention, input and promotion system of chickpea in ESA and in Ethiopia
  7. 45% 30% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% Disease Drought Heat Cold Others Insect Singh et al 1994a Major production limiting chickpea factors for stagnant growth of yield 10
  8. 548 549 696 945 996 762 828 891 829 958 881 899 1026 1048 1269 1265 1335 1549 1730 1711 1784 1913 1828 1969 2058 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Yield kg/ha= yield gain of 60.4kg/ha/yr Quadrupled Ethiopia is among global top productivity
  9. Technology/variety development rate 1970s-2016 32 35 2 26 11 6 57 25 1 4 1 6 Total of 206 legume varieties released in Ethiopia, of which some 25% brought significant impact
  10. 109750 131250 178890 150400 118890 179880 167650 184790 211910 194981 154281 181079 211490 201009200066 226785 213187208389 231299 239512 229720 239755 258486 225607 242703 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 area in ha Doubled
  11. Impacts of Chickpea Research in Ethiopia Impacts Survey Results (21 district-84 PAs-1470 hh= ~80%) • Kabuli varieties are predominantly high yielding in Ethiopia • East Gojjam, South West Shewa, Eash Shewa and North Shewa are the major improved chickpea growing zones. • Over 60% of farmers in these zones are growing improved chickpea. • The econometric results show that the growing of improved chickpeas is associated with a 28.5% increase in productivity. • DNA finger printing data is also collected as a way to verify that farmers are actually growing what they say they are growing. • This data is still being analyzed
  12. Impacts of early maturing chickpea improved cultivars in Myanmar Kumara Charyulu D, Kizito Mazvimavi, Pooran Gaur and Mar Mar Win
  13. Ex-post impact assessment study  It is compelling to systematically document the success and quantify welfare benefits  A representative tracking survey undertaken covering three regions (Mandalay, Magway and Sagaing) and 403 Hh  FGDs conducted to complement the primary surveys  Productivity gains and unit cost reductions were estimated
  14.  Second largest producer in South Asia  3.3 times expansion in area (1961-2017)  15.5 times increase in production  Five times enhancement in productivity Performance of chickpea in Myanmar y = 18.631x + 291.22 R² = 0.7791 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Chickpeaproductivity(kg/ha) ChickpeaArea(ha)andProduction(tons) Area Production Myanmar-Yield Linear (Myanmar-Yield)
  15. Pattern of diffusion of chickpea improved cultivars  Area under local land races have come down significantly  Yezin 3 (kabuli) is replaced by new cultivar Yezin 8  Yezin 4 (desi) is replaced by new cultivar Yezin 6  Overall, area under improved cultivars has increased from 67% to 97.7% between 2001-2018  Among three regions, Sagaing has peak levels of adoption (>98%) followed by Mandalay (>96%) and Magway (>94%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2001-02 2005-06 2011-12 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 %croppedarea Yezin 3 Yezin 4 Yezin 6 Yezin 8 Karachi/ local
  16. Key findings of the study  Rapid adoption of early maturing chickpea improved cultivars in the country brought a salient chickpea revolution during last two decades period  Ten out of eleven chickpea improved cultivars released in the country were based on ICRISAT sourced breeding material  The extent of adoption of early maturing chickpea improved cultivars in the country was at its peak at 97.7%  The productivity gain due to adoption new improved cultivars was 51%. The estimated unit cost reduction due to improved technology was $ 129 per ton  The accrued welfare benefits in Myanmar due to rapid of early maturing chickpea improved cultivars were estimated at $ 152.8 million
  17. Identification of priority IA studies • Criteria to enable screening different research projects for priority IA studies. • Is the research developed or attributed to ICRISAT? • Has intervention taken off in terms of adoption? • Relative size of potential benefit of adoption of the technology. • Are there any prospects for documenting impacts along the impact pathway? • Uniqueness of the Impact Assessment Study. • Geographic coverage of the research project.
  18. Way forward • The costs of conducting an ex-post impact assessment in a specific geographic location depends on the breadth of questions, and how much precision is desired. • This will decide the budget for the proposed Impact Assessment strategy to be implemented in the next 2 years, 2019-2020. • There is need for strategic investment from the institute and supported by related bilateral projects to support IAO in conducting studies. • Pursue funding from SPIA and other funders (FAO) for specific projects. • Decision on the housing of IAO
  19. Thank You
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