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ICRISAT Global Planning Meeting 2019: Food Systems Futures & the SDGs: Can we get to zero hunger & rural prosperity by 2030 by Prabhu Pingali

  1. Food Systems Futures & the SDGs: Can we get to zero hunger & rural prosperity by 2030 PRABHU PINGALI PROFESSOR OF APPLIED ECONOMICS AND DIRECTOR TATA-CORNELL INSTITUTE FOR AGRICULTURE AND NUTRITION CORNELL UNIVERSITY ICRISAT GLOBAL PLANNING MEETING 2019
  2. The Post-2015 Development Agenda links hunger, nutrition and agriculture under the SDG framework…
  3. Goal 2: Zero Hunger Specific Targets for 2030 2.1: End hunger & ensure access to safe, nutritious & sufficient food 2.2: End all forms of malnutrition, including child stunting & wasting by 2025 2.3: Double agricultural productivity & incomes of small scale producers 2.4: Ensure sustainable production systems & adaptation to climate change & extreme weather events 2.5: Maintain genetic diversity of cultivated plants & domesticated animals
  4. Smallholder farms are central to achieving SDG2 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% South Asia East Asia and Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Average Share of Agricultural Holdings by Land Size Class = or <2 ha 2-10 ha 10-20 ha >20 ha Data Source: FAO
  5. Source: West. P.C, et al., Nov 2010, “Trading Carbon for Food: Global comparison of carbon stocks vs. crop yields on agricultural land”. PNAS, vol. 107, no. 46, 19647 Cropland distribution and average annual yield February 14, 2019 © 2011 BILL & MELINDA GATES FOUNDATION | Significant Opportunities to Boost Productivity
  6. A “Perfect Storm” of Global Threats & Challenges  Rising urbanization and changing demographic structure of rural populations  Changing diets & rapid rise in over-nutrition and epidemic of NCDs even as malnutrition rates remain high  Global environmental and sustainability challenges, including climate shocks and extreme events  Trade integration and declining competitiveness of developing country agriculture
  7. Towards an urbanized world with higher incomes WHO/GLOBAL HEALTH OBSERVATORY DATA 16
  8. Diets are changing across the Developing World 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1969-… 1989-… 2011-… 1969-… 1989-… 2011-… 1969-… 1989-… 2011-… 1969-… 1989-… 2011-… 1969-… 1989-… 2011-… Kenya Nigeria Colombia China India kcal/capita/day Fruits, vegetables, other Meat, eggs, animal fat Pulses Sugar and sweetners Source: FAO Food Balance Sheets
  9. Transformation of Urban FoodMarkets Photo Sources Left photos: Kiera Crowley Top photo: https://www.freshfruitportal.com/news/2017/01/16/india- supermarkets-gain-from-demonetization-pain/
  10. Urbanization & changing diets – implications for SDG2  A shift from agriculture as a “way of life” to “agriculture as a business”  “Provisioning the Cities” provides new growth opportunities for smallholders  High transactions costs could exclude lagging regions and asset poor communities from integrating into urban food value chains  Rising consumption of processed & convenience food could lead to increasing obesity trends in LDCs, even with gains in under nutrition
  11. Most global burden of disease risk factors are linked to diet
  12. Food Systems for Better Nutrition & Health Diversifying from staple grain focused agriculture towards a nutrition-sensitive food system can help address all dimensions of malnutrition Advances in genomics and molecular biology targeted towards enhancing nutritive value of crops, particularly for the less commonly researched crops International R&D could draw on advances in food technology being developed by advanced country public and private systems. Plant based meats and “clean meat” innovations
  13. Globalization & the declining competitiveness of domestic agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa Source: State of Commodity Markets 2018, FAO
  14. Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation  Poor countries will be hit the hardest:  Very little known of the adverse impacts of CC on crops and resources important to the poor  Risks to existing cropping patterns (especially in more arid regions) not adequately studied Projected changes in agricultural production in 2080 due to climate change Source: Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change, 2011
  15. Increase in Climatic Uncertainties Frequency of Droughts Globally Frequency of Floods Globally Source: Natural Disasters- EMDAT 2017
  16. Food Security Impacts of Climate Change  Increased cost of production – disease ecology change in plants and animals  Income losses due to yield reduction and post harvest losses  Even crops suited for warmer climates will see a drop in yields  Food price fluctuations especially higher value nutritious crops  Diversification can have both +ve and –ve green house gas effects  International trade can buffer domestic supplies and prices
  17. Towards Sustainable Intensification  Role of modern science and technology with “big data” tools, ICT and precision agriculture  Advances in renewable energy sources could contribute to efficiency of energy use and sustainable resource use  Adaptation to smaller scales is a major challenge for research and technology design
  18. Evolving Organization of the R&D System Growing number of non-traditional players in the food and agriculture innovation space. Continued amalgamation of bioscience companies and food industry can hamper technology access for the poor. Can the CGIAR continue to be a conduit for technology access, adaptation and delivery to small farm systems?
  19. Small farm success also depends on the other SDGs Small producer agriculture Poverty goals Environmental goalsNutrition goals Goal 1: No poverty Goal 8: Decent work and economic growth Social goals Goal 2: Zero hunger Goal 3: Good health and wellbeing Goal 5: Gender equality Goal 10: Reduce inequality within and among countries Goal 12: Responsible production and consumption Goal 13: Climate action Goal 15: Life on land
  20. What are the prospects for achieving SDG2 Ending Hunger: possible for caloric adequacy but uncertain for access to food diversity, especially micro-nutrient rich food. Ending all forms of malnutrition: declines in the incidence of child stunting & wasting, but sharp rise in obesity rates. Double small farm productivity: unlikely for the least developed countries & lagging regions in emerging economies. Adaptation to Climate Change: Unlikely for small farms in arid zones & flood risk areas. Sustainable Production Systems: possible where policies are right & where technology adaptation to smaller scales is possible.
  21. Open Access to the electronic edition available at: https://www.worldscientific.com /worldscibooks/10.1142/11212
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