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Future climate vulnerability of Telangana : A mandal-level assessment
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Future climate vulnerability of Telangana : A mandal-level assessment

  1. About ICRISAT: www.icrisat.org ICRISAT’s scientific information: http://EXPLOREit.icrisat.org Mar 2019 Future Climate Vulnerability of Telangana: A Mandal-level Assessment Introduction ICRISAT, with support from the National Adaptation Fund For Climate Change (NAFCC) through the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD), is engaged in a project that aims to improve resilience of households to climate change by addressing some of the critical challenges posed by it. As part of the project, an updating of future climate scenarios and assessment of climate vulnerability over Telangana are being taken up. Objectives ▪▪ To prepare and update climate scenarios using CMIP5 models for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) ▪▪ To assess spatial vulnerabilities and identify target regions for implementing interventions. Role of partners ICRISAT: To develop climate scenarios and assess vulnerabilities to target and plan strategic interventions. EPTRI: Nodal agency for organizing state-level action on climate change. PJTSAU: Tailor climate smart adaptation packages aimed at boosting the resilience of farm households. NABARD: To fund the adoption of climate smart agricultural practices. Location & beneficiaries The future climate vulnerability of Telangana State was assessed through the Climate Exposure Index (CEI). Based on climate exposure and socio-economic status, vulnerable farm households were identified and targeted for interventions in the 3 most vulnerable mandals (Ghanpur, Bijnapalle and Jadcherla) falling under Mahabubnagar, Wanaparthy and Nagarkurnool districts, respectively. Around 3,500 farmers will benefit through tailored adaptation interventions. K Dakshina Murthy, S Nedumaran, MK Gumma, I Ahmad, P Jyosthnaa and A Whitbread International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru 502324, India Weighting scheme: Climate Exposure Index To assess present and future climate vulnerability, CEI was constructed using the following indicators and weights: Indicator Weight (%) Heat wave occurrence (days) 3 Cold wave occurrence (days) 3 Severe heat wave occurrences (days) 5 Severe cold wave occurrence (days) 2 CV of annual precipitation (%) 0 CV of June rainfall (%) 5 CV of July rainfall (%) 15 Annual precipitation 2 Monsoon rainfall 3 CV of monsoon rainfall (%) 10 Simple daily Intensity Index (Mm/day) 5 Heavy rainfall (days) 10 Very heavy rainfall (days) 10 Duration of wet days 5 Number of times there were >14 wet days in monsoon (no/time slice) 5 Number of annual rainy days 5 Modeling framework ▪▪ Historical climate data of Telangana was collated from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and AgMERRA databases. ▪▪ Projections of future climate were accessed from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for RCP 8.5. ▪▪ Projections were created by using the mean and variability approach for near and mid-century time slices. ▪▪ These scenarios were called mean and variability change scenarios. Model selection A customized scatterplot was created to understand the uncertainty and select representative models for the state. Scenario Selected GCM and institution Cool - Wet bcc-csm1 - Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration Hot - Dry BNU-ESM - College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University Cool - Dry GFDL-ESM2M - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA Hot - Wet HadGEM2-ES - Met Office, Hadley Centre, UK Climate vulnerability of Telangana Baseline vulnerability based on CEI. The modeling framework for the study. Future vulnerability based on CEI. With increasing number of mandals being categorized as vulnerable, the districts of Jogulamba- Gadwal, Adilabad, Mahabubnagar, Nagarkurnool, Nalgonda, Peddapalli, Suryapet, Wanaparthy and Yadadri were found to be most vulnerable to climate change based on the CEI. GCM selection for Telangana State.
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