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Crop livestock farming systems research in semi-arid southern Africa II

  1. Crop livestock farming systems research in semi-arid southern Africa II Eastern And Southern Africa Planning meeting, 26-27 April 2016 at Meickles Hotel, Harare, Zimbabwe Sabine Homann-Kee Tui, Andre van Rooyen, Claudio Sixpence, Thabani Dube, Max Wengawenga
  2. Nudging sustainability transitions using open innovation platforms and market oriented development MOREP Resilient and Profitable Farming in Central Mozambique • Despite expanding local and regional markets for crop and livestock products, most farmers in Marara, Tete, do not make a profit. • Farmers are unable to invest in low cost biomass and protein that would increase food security and resilience despite high risk environment. • Innovation platforms help, but still need further strengthening to promote learning and all levels, and to realise their full potential to generate solutions.
  3. Success = F (x M x LISF) Functional innovation platforms that identify opportunities (‘quick wins’) along pathways towards inclusive market access (single loop learning); Tools for diagnosing, nudging and monitoring multi-level learning that enhances innovation (double loop); Define the grammar of entire socio-ecological systems (e.g. structure, culture, practices) and assess changes to that grammar as a result of the innovation platform approach (triple loop); Learning and self-organization through IPs towards inclusive market access
  4. Pathways to inclusive market access
  5. Solutions for supporting market oriented development pathways Livestock oriented market development in Marara + Legalized association with land tenure security + Better organized farmers and stronger links with partners + Improved market infrastructure and organization + Improved crop and livestock production Collective marketing of common beans in Manica + Farmers able to attract new partners and investments + Collective common beans sales at large scales + Increased profits from higher production and improved marketing Social capital Integration of objectives and actors at large scale creating unity and ownership Self-organization and representation opening new doors for new partnerships and investments Process learning for dealing with new opportunities and barriers to development
  6. Co-designing smallholder farming futures to increase resilience in the face of changing climate Maize-cattle based crop-livestock systems in Nkayi district - Low crop productivity; e.g. 0.7 t/ha for maize, 0.5 t/ha for sorghum - Low livestock productivity; e.g. mortality rates 15%; < 1.5 l/cow/day - High poverty levels; 76% poor and 22% extremely poor - Food self-sufficiency: 3-10 months  High vulnerability, heterogeneity Extremely poor (43%) Poor (38%) Non-poor (19%) Cultivated land (ha) 1.4 2.0 2.7 Cattle (TLU) 0 5.4 13.9 Extremely poor Poor Non-poor
  7. Research questions Q1: What is the sensitivity of current agricultural production systems to climate change? Q2: What are benefits of interventions in current agricultural systems? Q3: What will be the impact of climate change on future agricultural production systems? Q4: What are the benefits of climate change adaptation options? Multi-modeling for assessing the impacts of climate change and adaptation options Crop yield Milk production Net income Food self-sufficiency
  8. Multi-modeling and scenario re-design Incremental Transformative
  9. Information on impacts of adaptation options to influence decision making processes 10 Highly confidence in temperature increase Uncertainty of rainfall change Climate Crops LivestockVulnerability and impact
  10. RAP-4, transformative change Indicators SSP2, RAP-2: Conventional development SSP1, RAP-4: Sustainable development Systems change + Better crop-livestock integration ++ Further crop-livestock integration; crop diversification, intensification Cultivated land area - Intensified production on less land + 45% Setting cultivated land in use; labor saving techn., better market access Legume cultivation 0 No change + + 300% Groundnut and legume forages Herd size + Small increase due to improved feed and animal management ++ 100% Large increase; more fodder production, market incentives Input use + Fertilizer and improved seed for maize ++ 30% Fertilizer and improved seed for all crops Off-farm income - Limited alternative options, people rely more on agriculture + 10% Growth in other sectors attracts people, income diversification SSP1, RAP-4 “Sustainable development” In Zimbabwe: conducive institutional environment for investment in sustainable solutions Adaptation package-2 “Drought tolerant nutritious varieties” Shift to sorghum, drought tolerant and high-yielding varieties, organic + inorganic soil fertility management, fodder production
  11. Economic effects: incremental and transformative change 12 0 cattle 1-8 cattle >8 cattle 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 current incremental transformative FarmNetReturns(US$/year) 0 20 40 60 80 100 current incremental transformative Povertylevels(%) extr. poor poor non-poor
  12. Lessons Integrated modelling framework - Assess effects on both crops and livestock, whole-farm economics - Take into account farm heterogeneity Iterative process of scenarios and adaptation development with stakeholders - Contextualizing: translate global drivers into local dynamics - Identify enabling conditions for interventions and pathways Most farmers in semi-arid Zimbabwe will loose from climate change and benefit from adaptation options, but - Benefits are small overall, because production levels are extremely low - Apart from better-off farmers, most remain below the poverty line  Currently promoted technologies are insufficient to lift people out of poverty  Drastic farming system re-design needs to be enabled by policy and institutional interventions  Persistent poverty suggests need for societal change and opportunities outside agriculture
  13. Plans for 2016 MOREP • Facilitation procedures for multi-level learning through open IPs • PM&E framework for IP driven win-win technologies and market development • Report on resilient and profitable farming systems • Journal papers submitted on value chain development, IP methodology, resilient and profitable farming systems AGMIP • Integrated assessments completed for 4 sites • Stakeholder engagement influencing decisions for adaptation to climate change • Journal papers, book chapters published on re-designing smallholder mixed farming systems under climate change ZimCLIFS • Capacity development and promotional material for IP facilitation and scaling out, technical and institutional lessons • Report on integrated technology use, drivers and barriers to technology uptake • Journal paper submitted on co-designing transitions towards integrated market oriented mixed farming systems
  14. “We farmers are now engaged in a common vision. We have a voice to express our needs, to partners who bring knowledge to us”.
  15. Modeling framework
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