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Climate Change Impacts and Household Vulnerability of Rainfed Farming Systems in Southern India
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Climate Change Impacts and Household Vulnerability of Rainfed Farming Systems in Southern India

  1. About ICRISAT: www.icrisat.org ICRISAT’s scientific information: http://EXPLOREit.icrisat.org Mar 2019 Climate Change Impacts and Household Vulnerability of Rainfed Farming Systems in Southern India Introduction Rainfed agriculture plays an important role in the livelihoods of rural households in the Semi-Arid Tropics (SAT), which occupies about 55% (86 M ha) of net sown area and produces 40% of total foodgrain. Rainfed farming systems are highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate variability and change. There is a need to minimize this risk and uncertainty to sustainably increase food production. A systems approach with multidimensional assessments can best assess the impact of climate change on agriculture production systems, household level income and poverty. Objectives ▪▪ To assess the sensitivity of rainfed crop and livestock production systems to climate change in Kurnool district of Andhra Pradesh. ▪▪ To assess household vulnerability, change in farm household net returns, per capita income and poverty rate across different climate change scenarios. Study area – Kurnool district, Andhra Pradesh S Nedumaran1 , K Dakshina Murthy1 , MK Gumma1 , R Valdivia2 , S McDermid3 , S Srinivas Reddy1 , P Jyosthnaa1 and A Whitbread1 1 International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru 502324, India 2 Oregon State University, USA 3 New York University, USA Characteristics of farming systems Changes in temperature and rainfall under RCP 8.5 over Nandyal. Category GCMs Temperature (˚C) Rainfall (% change) Cool/wet MRI-CGCM3 0.46 37.8 Cool/dry MIROC5 1.40 15.2 Middle BNU-ESM 2.57 12.6 Hot/wet CMCC-CMS 2.04 33.3 Hot/dry CanESM2 3.00 6.4 Climate in the 2050s Temperature increase 0.5 to 3°C Rainfall change 6.4% to 37.8% Hot/dry scenario: - Yields are projected to decrease due to heat and water stresses. Cool/wet & cool/dry scenario: - Positive impact on chickpea yields. Simulated average relative chickpea yields. Climate scenario Low rainfall Medium and high rainfall Mean CV (%) Mean CV (%) Cool/wet 1.33 22.45 1.12 11.02 Cool/dry 1.05 9.92 0.92 8.51 Middle 0.83 6.49 0.69 6.66 Hot/wet 0.95 9.27 0.76 6.12 Hot/dry 0.88 8.25 0.74 6.86 GCM Strata Vulnerability (%) Net economic impact (%) Change in current system with climate change (%) Net farm returns Per capita income Poverty rate Hot/dry Low rainfall 68.2 -15.1 -20.5 -13.5 19.3 High and medium rainfall 67.6 -19.0 -25.0 -20.9 08.5 Aggregate farms 67.8 -18.1 -24.0 -18.2 14.7 Cool/wet Low rainfall 34.5 13.8 18.8 12.4 -15.9 High and medium rainfall 47.2 02.8 03.9 03.2 -04.0 Aggregate farms 42.4 05.4 07.3 06.6 -10.9 Climate Impacts ▪▪ Climate models predict a future with higher (warmer) temperature. ▪▪ By the 2050s, the temperature could increase by 0.5-3°C. ▪▪ Future rainfall could increase by 6- 38%. ▪▪ Cool/wet and cool/dry climate have a positive impact on chickpea. ▪▪ Hot/dry and hot/wet climate have a negative impact. ▪▪ 62% of farms could be vulnerable ▪▪ Poverty will increase by 15%. Spatial distribution of land use/land cover (LULC) in Andhra Pradesh and (inset) major chickpea growing areas. Location of sample households in chickpea growing areas of Kurnool district. Note: RCP= Representative Concentration Pathway; SSP=Shared Socio-Economic Pathway; RAP=Representative Agricultural Pathway; and TOA-MD= Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multi- Dimensional Impact Assessment. Regional Integrated Assessment Framework Region: Kurnool district, Andhra Pradesh, India Farming system: Rainfed crop-livestock ▪▪ 80% cropped area is rainfed ▪▪ Low rainfall zone (average rainfall of 760 mm) ▪▪ Black cotton soil (vertisols) Cropping pattern: Fallow – chickpea. Major crops: Chickpea, rice, sorghum and groundnut. Sensitivity of current production systems to climate change Farm household vulnerability and poverty Key messages
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