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Asia Regional Program Planning Meeting- Climate Change Impacts in Asia

  1. Climate Change Impacts in Asia AVR Kesava Rao, Suhas P Wani and Team ICRISAT Development Centre 04 May 2016 Presented at the Asia Regional Planning Meeting, ICRISAT, Patancheru
  2. Global CO2 trends Source: NASA- GISS, CDIAC, NOAA ESRL May 1, 2016 407.47 ppm NOAA-ESRL May 1, 2015 404.00 ppm Scripps CO2 UCSD Highest-ever daily average CO2 at MLO: 409.44 ppm on April 9, 2016 (Scripps) 2nd highest daily average CO2 at MLO: 409.39 ppm on April 8, 2016 (Scripps)
  3. Global annual average temperatures anomalies (Relative to 1961-1990) Source: WMO, Jan 2016 2015 2015 is hottest year on record
  4. All India: Annual temperature anomalies Period: 1901-2015 Departures from the 1961-90 average Source: IMD, 2016
  5. April maximum temperatures at ICRISAT, Patancheru
  6. India – Rainfall trends 137 years (1879-2015)
  7. Need for a detailed climate change analysis to identify opportunities for Climate Smart Agriculture
  8. Based on CRU 3.23 data (Jun 2015)0.5 deg data, 1233 pixels India climates: Area changes
  9. Changes in areas under climate types Period Arid S-Arid D-Sub-H M-Sub-H Humid P-Humid Total (m ha) 1955-84 0.00 17.96 12.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.81 1985-14 0.00 21.78 8.77 0.23 0.03 0.00 30.81 Difference 0.00 3.82 -4.08 0.23 0.03 0.00 0.00 Period Arid S-Arid D-Sub-H M-Sub-H Humid P-Humid Total (m ha) 1955-84 0.00 1.82 6.88 0.39 0.33 0.00 9.42 1985-14 0.00 4.48 3.39 1.04 0.48 0.03 9.42 Difference 0.00 2.66 -3.49 0.65 0.15 0.03 0.00 Madhya Pradesh Bihar
  10. Climate variability at Nemmikal, Nalgonda  After 1978, climate tending towards Arid type, LGP reduced by 15 days  Old varieties of Maize, Pigeonpea are likely to fail more number of times  Potential for crop diversification and introduction of climate smart varieties
  11. Changes in duration of southwest monsoon in Myanmar Onset in northern Myanmar till withdrawal from southern Myanmar (1955-2008)
  12. Projected climate change related disaster risks in Myanmar  Opportunity for drought and heat tolerant climate smart varieties
  13. • Help in climate change impacts assessment • Cultivar coefficients for groundnut, pigeonpea estimated Crop-growth simulation models
  14. CC Scenario Seed yield (kg ha-1) Seed yield (%) Total Dry Matter production (kg ha-1) Current 2000 - 5430 HadGEM2-ES 1820 -9 5410 GFDL-CM3 1830 -9 5350 CNRM-CM5 1750 -13 5250 Climate change impacts on groundnut
  15. Projected climate impacts on pigeonpea at Kalaburagi CC Scenario Days to flower Days to maturity DMP (kg ha-1) Seed Yield (kg ha-1) Change in yield (%) Present (P) 103 157 8708 2057 0 P+1C+20%RF 101 152 8866 2005 -3 P+1C+10%RF 101 151 8659 1961 -5 P+1C 101 151 8286 1875 -9 P+2C+20%RF 99 148 8525 1854 -10 P+2C+10%RF 100 149 8302 1809 -12 P+1C-10%RF 99 150 7798 1771 -14 P+2C 99 148 7943 1734 -16 P+2C-10%RF 98 147 7465 1636 -20 P+1C-20%RF 99 150 7090 1615 -21 P+2C-20%RF 98 147 6763 1486 -28  Increase in temperature by 2oC reduces crop yields by 16% and TDM by 9%  Increase in temperature by 2oC, reduces crop duration by 9 days without changing plant water use  Increase in temp by 2oC coupled with decrease in rainfall by 20% may result in yield reduction by 28% AVR Kesava Rao et al., 2013
  16. AP Rythu Kosam ICRISAT Pilot Site Mandals Code Mandal 17 Thullur 18 Sattenapalle 19 Kollur 20 Karlapalem 21 Konakanamitla 22 Kanigiri 23 Ongole 24 Kothapatnam 25 Podalakur 26 Indukurpet 27 Thotapalligudur 28 Venkatagiri Kota 29 Santhipuram 30 Brahmamgarimatham 31 Porumamilla 32 Veeraballe 33 Sambepalle 34 Raptadu 35 Kothacheruvu 36 Penukonda 37 Devanakonda 38 Banaganapalle Code Mandal 1 Ranastalam 2 Seethampeta 3 Polaki 4 Parvathipuram 5 Pusapatirega 6 Chintapalle 7 Butchayyapeta 8 Padmanabham 9 Yeleswaram 10 Gangavaram 11 Thallarevu 12 Kamavarapukota 13 Akividu 14 G.Konduru 15 Ghantasala 16 Machilipatnam
  17. Dual-purpose Raingauge • Designed by ICRISAT • Perhaps only such instrument in the world • Allows both manual measurement and automatic event recording of rainfall • Also records air temperature • Total cost including equipment, testing, calibration, launching, installation and one-year technical support is about Rs.53,000/-
  18.  Training to students to operate and maintain the Automatic Weather Station  Students collect weather data daily and display at the school Weather awareness at watersheds
  19. Suggesting optimum groundnut sowing period • Pilot study in collaboration with Microsoft team • Devanakonda Mandal in Kurnool district
  20. Prediction of Spodoptera adult population
  21. El Niño is present and is weakening A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with an increasing chance of La Niña during the second half of the year
  22. District Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SWM POM Adilabad 19 -8 50 32 25 -39 -54 21 9 Hyderabad -34 16 36 -8 175 -71 -37 8 118 Karimnagar 29 -7 44 19 31 -58 -27 20 12 Khammam -5 -13 47 27 79 -25 -63 13 55 Mahabubnagar -9 -14 40 0 93 -65 -65 6 58 Medak -11 -13 47 40 61 -30 -31 16 39 Nalgonda -33 5 44 3 94 -72 -90 10 55 Nizamabad -1 -5 73 1 100 -28 -45 19 74 Rangareddy -25 18 64 37 92 -11 -61 30 66 Warangal 1 3 45 70 91 -59 -52 27 54 Likely rainfall situation in Telangana during Jun to Dec 2016 (Under prevailing strong El Niño conditions till April 2016)
  23. • Update climate databases at micro-level • Climate change analysis and assess climate change impacts using cop-growth simulation models • Monitor weather at project sites through automation and participatory methods (farmers and NGOs) • Enhance awareness on climate variability and change • Develop Climate Decision Support System including weather-based pest forewarning models Proposed work plan
  24. We have no time to lose • Global warming tolerance thresholds, not too far • Adaptation + mitigation approach crucial • Time to join hands to harness strengths of all partners Time to take off Thank You
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