Development of an integrative Impact Analysis Tool         (iIAT) in the European Research Project PLUREL                 ...
Background                    What are the Objectives of PLUREL                    • Central objective: Development of an ...
Impact Analysis Modelling                                          1000.0                                                 ...
Background                                   Haaglanden (NL)                                                     Leipzig (...
iIAT – Concept & Purpose                    What is the iIAT – integrated Impact Assessment Tool?                    • Eur...
iIAT – Concept & Purpose                                                   Environmental Issue d                          ...
iIAT Stakeholder involvement                    What is the role of participation in the tool development?                ...
iIAT Stakeholder EU                    Discussion with European end users (DGs, EEA, CURE, ICLEI)                    Inten...
Conclusion:                                Appreciation of iIATs                                • multipurpose and        ...
iIAT Relevance & Practical use              • Exploration of possible future situations under the perspective of          ...
iIAT Limitations                    What are the limitations concerning participatory functionality?                    • ...
Scenario Setting                              Time Frame                                                                  ...
How to use the iIAT?Question: How does urbanisation under extreme climate change conditions affect sustainability inthe No...
How to use the iIAT?Question: Would a shift from weak level of control to strong level of control in a consolidatedgovernm...
www.plurel.net   ingo.zasada@zalf.deIngo Zasada, ZALF                                          Informed Cities Forum – Mak...
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"Development of an integrative Impact Analysis Tool (iIAT) in the European Research Project PLUREL" by I. Zasada, ZALF

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"Development of an integrative Impact Analysis Tool (iIAT) in the European Research Project PLUREL" by I. Zasada, ZALF

  1. 1. Development of an integrative Impact Analysis Tool (iIAT) in the European Research Project PLUREL Ingo Zasada Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research Müncheberg, Germany (ZALF)Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010
  2. 2. Background What are the Objectives of PLUREL • Central objective: Development of an ex-ante impact analysis of future land use changes (2015/2025) based on the DPSIR approach (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) • Analysis of causal relationships between global driving forces, land use change (urbanisation) and sustainability impacts on pan- European and regional scale (case studies) • Contribution to the development of planning and policy strategies for a sustainable development of regionsIngo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010
  3. 3. Impact Analysis Modelling 1000.0 800.0 Effective Mesh Size 600.0 400.0 -0.8724 y = 2027.5x 200.0 R² = 0.6674 (0.761) 0.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 Share of Artificial Surface in %Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010
  4. 4. Background Haaglanden (NL) Leipzig (GER) Manchester (UK) Warsaw (PL) Montpellier (FR) Hangzhou (CHN) Koper (SLO)Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010
  5. 5. iIAT – Concept & Purpose What is the iIAT – integrated Impact Assessment Tool? • European-wide regional differentiated prognosis and knowledge transfer tool on sustainability impacts of future urban land use change • Integrated representation of modelled impacts within the three sustainability dimensions depending on selectable parameters • Integration platform for research results from the 2 PLUREL strands: EU and case study regionIngo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010
  6. 6. iIAT – Concept & Purpose Environmental Issue d Economic Issue a 10 8 + Environmental Issue c 6 ? ? 4 ? Economic Issue b 2 Environmental Issue b 0 Environmental ? -2 ? dimension Economic -4 dimension -6 Current Economic Issue c ? -8 - Situation ? Environmental Issue a ? ? Social Social Issue d Economic Issue d dimension Future ? ? Scenario ? Situation? Social Issue c Social Issue aIngo Zasada, ZALF Social Issue b Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010
  7. 7. iIAT Stakeholder involvement What is the role of participation in the tool development? iIAT Case study region iIAT EU (NUTSX) • 2 workshops (Leipzig) • 3 workshops (Brussels) • concept discussion • concept presentation • compliation of relevant • compliation of relevant questions questions • technical demands from • policy relevance discussion practitioner side • prototype presentation • prototype presentationIngo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010
  8. 8. iIAT Stakeholder EU Discussion with European end users (DGs, EEA, CURE, ICLEI) Intensive cooperation with the PURPLE network Purple platform of 14 European peri-urban regions with the objectives • to share knowledge and good practice • allowing connections and productive crossfertilisation between existing projects • promoting new trans-European initiatives 2 common workshops on the iIAT, presentation and discussion of the iIAT 4 contributions to the conferenceIngo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010
  9. 9. Conclusion: Appreciation of iIATs • multipurpose and multiple indicators function • interregional comparisons • scenario modelling • web availability to comeIngo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010
  10. 10. iIAT Relevance & Practical use • Exploration of possible future situations under the perspective of sustainable development • Identification of future policy issues/ territorial action agendas for policy-makers at different scales (European – regional) • Encouragement of inter-regional comparison, Identification of hot- spot regions with particular need to policy/planning intervention • Support tool for practitioners (planners) at different scales • Information basis and encouragement of stakeholders within the different policy fieldsIngo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010
  11. 11. iIAT Limitations What are the limitations concerning participatory functionality? • User do not assess policy options • iIAT Case Study Region: Impact Assessment of Strategies & Scenarios • iIAT EU: only Impact Assessment of scenario-based land use changes • Impact analysis is made in a Black Box Model. Users’ assessments are not fed back into the tool • Here: NOT participatory model / tool development; but: provision of a tool that facilitates participatory decision processes of practitioners or policy makers and operational design oriented on end user needsIngo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010
  12. 12. Scenario Setting Time Frame Choice iIAT EU NUTSX EU one one opportunitieTypology total Country NUTS X s category Aggregated/ specific IndicatorsRUR (urban/ peri-urban/ rural) (+) (+/-) (-) 0/1 periurbanitySettlement Structure (+) (+/-) (-) multiple periurbanity Regional Settingmorpholog. RUR (+) (+/-) (-) multiple periurbanityCoast Indicator Chart (+) (+/-) (-) 0/1 geographicBorder Display Setting (+) (+/-) (-) 0/1 geographicNatural Hazard Type (+) (+/-) (-) multiple geographicTypology MultimodalAccessibility Potential (+) (+/-) (-) multiple economicEuropean InnovationScoreboard (+) (+/-) (-) multiple economicMigration Type (+) (+/-) (-) multiple economicTechnological Hazard Type (+) (+/-) (-) multiple economicPentagon EU 27 plus 2 (+) (+/-) (-) 0/1 spatial developmentSpatial Planning Typology (+) (+/-) (-) 0/1 spatial developmentInterreg Structural FundsRegions (+) (+/-) (-) multiple spatial developmentIngo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010Cohesion Funds Regions (+) (+/-) (-) multiple spatial development
  13. 13. How to use the iIAT?Question: How does urbanisation under extreme climate change conditions affect sustainability inthe Northumbria region (selected indicators)?Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010
  14. 14. How to use the iIAT?Question: Would a shift from weak level of control to strong level of control in a consolidatedgovernment situation under high growth trends contribute to achieve more sustainability inurbanised regions (aggregated indicators)?Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010
  15. 15. www.plurel.net ingo.zasada@zalf.deIngo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010

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