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Keynote The Arkansas Distance Learning Association (ARDLA)


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Keynote The Arkansas Distance Learning Association (ARDLA), 10 October 2012.
Introduction on ICDE an main paradox regarding ODL
Higher education – a goldmine
Global context, need for HE, need for jobs
Opportunities, trends and disruptive initiatives - Open and online
The users demand
System failure - global failure
A wake up call for governments - a shake up of universities

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Keynote The Arkansas Distance Learning Association (ARDLA)

  1. 1. Challenges and opportunitiescoming from a more open and online world The Arkansas Distance Learning Association (ARDLA) 10 October 2012 Gard Titlestad Secretary General ICDE
  2. 2. Outline• Introduction• Higher education – a goldmine• Global context• Opportunities, trends and disruptive initiatives• Paradoxes• The users• System failure• A wake up call• Conclusion
  3. 3. What is ICDE?• the leading global membership organization for open and distance education• an NGO official partner of UNESCO, and shares that agency’s key aim – the attainment of quality education for all• member focused – ICDE is an organization which will involve members in decision making, in cooperative action and in cooperative problem solving.• transparent – Members will be able to follow the activities and decisions of ICDE.• ICDE believes that in pursuing education as a universal right, the needs of the learner must be central.• senior management in member institutions is actively involved in ICDE
  4. 4. Members• 100 institutional members – All parts of the world – Organises most of the mega-universities (>100.000 students)• 10 regional associations as associate members• Also some national associations and individuals
  5. 5. Suggested Strategic Objectives The draft strategic Plan 2013 - 20161. To promote the importance of open, distance, flexibleand online (e-learning ) education in educational policy.2. To encourage quality in open, distance, flexible andonline (e-learning) education.3. To support the development of new methodologiesand technologies.4. To facilitate cooperation and networking amongstmembers.5. To strengthen ICDE membership and governance, andengage members in collaborative activity andorganizational development.
  6. 6. Paradoxes• While governments world wide celebrate the success of higher education, governmental policies are out-dated and are not capable of grasping the benefits from the most constructive and disruptive factor in the higher education sector: open and online education• While the Academic world wants to show the way – are universities and higher education institutions prepared for reinventing themselves?
  7. 7. The talent pool is growing…
  8. 8. 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 % Norway Iceland Switzerland Sweden NetherlandsChart A7.1 Slovenia Germany Denmark Austria Brazil Portugal United Kingdom Luxembourg Poland Finland Australia Belgium Tertiary education the level of education New Zealand France Below upper secondary Czech Republic OECD average Employment prospects increase with Israel Percentage of 25-64 year-olds in employment, by level of education (2010) Slovak Republic Canada Ireland Mexico United States Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary Estonia Greece Spain Japan Chile Hungary Italy Korea Turkey
  9. 9. The crisis reinforces theimportance of good education• Over the past decade, more than two-thirds of GDP growth in EU21 countries was driven by labour income growth among tertiary-educated individuals, compared with just 51% in the United States.• Even in the midst of the recession in 2009, labour income growth among tertiary graduates increased in the majority of EU countries with available data.• In contrast, those with mid-range jobs and skills felt the most severe impact of the 2009 drop in GDP. Education at a Glance: OECD Indicators 2012
  10. 10. Bottom line: Higher Education – a goldminefor the individual and the society• For the individual – the employment prospects increase• For the individual – the net value is good business• For the public – cost benefit is success! – Documented by OECD in Education at a glance 2012
  11. 11. Global need for barrier-free access to higher education• Irina Bokova, Director-General of UNESCO “Higher education: In less than 40 years, enrolments have increased fivefold. Globally it is estimated that demand will expand from less than 100 million students in 2000 to over 250 million students in 2025.” ”Four universities a week” Open and distance elearning is needed!
  12. 12. Example Tianjin• Need for re- educating public servants• The City Council co- operate with TOU• Needs: 2 – 3 million the next years?
  13. 13. Education has to contribute to bringing youths back to the labour marketParis, 9 October 2012 - OECD Harmonised Unemployment Rates
  14. 14. World Development Report 2013• “The youth challenge alone is staggering. More than 620 million young people are neither working nor studying. Just to keep employment rates constant, the worldwide number of jobs will have to increase by around 600 million over a 15-year period” October 1, 2012
  15. 15. Mobilising the workforce: Mobication• Tomorrow’s employment policies must create conditions to facilitate labour mobility through Education the lifelong learning of the individual.• Coordination between the labour market and Welfare Work education policy is crucial for business competitiveness and future welfare.
  16. 16. Opportunities
  17. 17. Technology as facilitatorThe rapid development ofinformation andcommunication technology(ICT) offers tremendouseducational opportunities toprovide newinnovative, accessible and moreaffordable ways of learning. Mansoor Al Awar, Chairman, Middle East e-Learning
  18. 18. Internet is hitting Education• "The investing community believes that the Internet is hitting education, that education is having its Internet moment," – Jose Ferreira, founder of the interactive- learning company Knewton.
  19. 19. ”IT sector booms during downturn”, says OECD• © OECD ActiveCharts –
  20. 20. ODL in rapid growth• The world’s 18 largest mega-universities are open universities serving more than 14.3 million students. Most of these universities were founded after the 1970s.• China: 1 of every 10 registered students in higher education is a student at The Open University of China.• Africa: African Virtual University has signed up with 21 countries and 28 Universities to provide Open and Distance eLearning, based on OER and the Internet.• Almost one-third of enrolments in HE in the autumn of 2010 in the USA were online enrolments, with more than 30% of the students taking at least one course online.
  21. 21. Costs
  22. 22. The Future - USA• College presidents predict substantial growth in online learning: 15% say most of their current undergraduate students have taken a class online, and 50% predict that 10 years from now most of their students will take classes online.• Nearly two-thirds of college presidents (62%) anticipate that 10 years from now, more than half of the textbooks used by their undergraduate students will be entirely digital.• The Digital Revolution and Higher Education. 2011. By Kim Parker, Amanda Lenhart and Kathleen Moore
  23. 23. Crossroad or….• 1,021 Internet experts, researchers, observers and users, 60% agreed with a statement that by 2020:• “there will be mass adoption of teleconferencing and distance learning to leverage expert resources … a transition to ‘hybrid’ classes that combine online learning components with less- frequent on-campus, in-person class meetings.”• Some 39% agreed with an opposing statement that said, “in 2020 higher education will not be much different from the way it is today.”Pew Internet/Elon University survey, July 2012
  24. 24. Courseraand more!
  25. 25. Disruptive innovation Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaDisruptive innovation does not make a good product or servicebetter, but makes it more affordable and accessible, so more peoplecan purchase or use it.
  26. 26. Disruptive innovation — in educationFor Anant Agarwal, MITx, the Institute’snew online-learning initiative, isn’t just ameans of democratizing education. It’s away to reinvent it.
  27. 27. MOOC ManiaThe Chronicles special report on Online Learning 2012
  28. 28. Many questions• Motivation for MOOCs? Money, Branding or doing the Good things?• Sustainable?• Business models?• The cost savings – for quality or profit?• Pedagogic quality? Flip the classroom?• Lot of criticism –Criticism can be the mother of progress
  29. 29. Paradoxes
  30. 30. Paradox• That "much-touted online university, where a student can get a degree without ever encountering another student except online, is fine within the portfolio of higher education," Sexton said. But for it to be "the norm," he said, would be "disgraceful.” John Saxton, President, New York University – Inside Higher Ed
  31. 31. India25% of Indian students are nowcovered by distance education Lakh = 100.000
  32. 32. ParadoxAugust 21, 2012• Indias New Rules for Foreign Universities Raise Questions at Home and Abroad• ……the new restrictions include allowing only institutions ranked in the top 500 worldwide to collaborate with Indian universities………
  33. 33. New iPhone could boost U.S. GDP by up to 0.5 percent, JP Morgan says
  34. 34. Mobile connection booms all over the world• According to Wireless intelligence institute: – World cellular connections in Q3 2012 closed at 6.4 billion – Already next year there will be more connections than the world´s population
  35. 35. Paradox• Governments don´t responds to UNESCO´s questionnaires.• There is a lack of interest and awareness on the part of policymakers and the public,• There are attitudes that see mobile phones as disruptive devices that students use primarily to play games, chat with friends and potentially engage in inappropriate behaviours such as cheating and cyber-bullying.
  36. 36. Two booksThe Academic worldshows the way, Göran Bexell
  37. 37. Two books • Comphrehensive overview of challenges for universities. • In 416 pages: almost nothing on the opportunities and challenges from a more open and online world • One sentence: ”Internet offers an unused revolution in the thinking with regards toThe Academic world education.” End of story.shows the way, Göran Bexell,Lund University, Sweden
  38. 38. Two books• Several articles, carefully analysing how future opportunities could be met. Blended learning. Experiences from the Open Universitiy, UK, and much more. Strong innovation in the university approach.• Discussed with a holistic approach to the future university Universitat Oberta de Catalunia, Barcelona, Spain
  39. 39. While the Academic world wants to show the way – are universities andhigher education institutions prepared for reinventing themselves?
  40. 40. What aboutthe users?
  45. 45. Universities: ODL and OER can fuelthe Knowledge TriangleHigh quality education Open AccessResearch based education Research based OERResource based education Research based teaching OER and ODL Innovation in education Innovate the learning system and institutions Knowledge supply for innovation
  46. 46. Universities: ODL and OER can fuelthe Knowledge Triangle• Through holistic, strategic and systematic work to increase synergies in the flow between the components in the triangle:• increase quality of education through resource based education and through research based education, using OER and ODL• easy access to research based education through research based OER, open access and facilitation by technology and ODL• build knowledge about education through research and development and ensure the flow to education practitioners and innovators• stimulate innovation in institutions through using the opportunities inherent in OER and ODL• strengthen knowledge supply to public and private sectors using the concepts of OER and ODL• increase innovation in society through strengthened interaction between the knowledge triangle and society”
  47. 47. System failure
  48. 48. School failure – system failure• Reducing school failure pays off for both society and individuals. More education attainment provides better labour market prospects and contributes to economic growth and social progress. The highest performing education systems across OECD countries are those that combine high quality and equity. Overcoming School Failure: Policies that Work February 2012
  49. 49. School failure– system failure One of five don´t complete ”Drop outs” Or ”Push outs” (Hal Plotkin)
  50. 50. University drop-outs (or push outs?) cost 660 million Euros per year in Spain aloneNorway – 2005 - 2010Total drop outs/push outs in higher education:12% (Health educations)- 37 % (Management and Economy)Only health educations have lower drop out rate than 20%
  51. 51. System failure or not?In my nightmares: ”Why not? Drop outs are fine. It filters for the talent pool – it filters for the recruitment to the elite.” Anonymous
  52. 52. Dr Qian Tang, Assistant Director-General for Education, UNESCO, Flexible learning for inclusive education• Yet all people, regardless of their sex, race, religion, disability or national, ethnic and social origin, are entitled to a quality education. Denying them such an opportunity is not only an infringement of their fundamental human rights; it is also a serious waste of society’s human resources. Indeed, education that is restricted to certain social groups deprives a country of significant assets and skills that could be tapped to build prosperous communities. Furthermore, it limits the impact of national efforts to create peaceful, just, fair and cohesive societies.• Inclusive education is therefore non-negotiable.
  53. 53. Paradoxes• While governments world wide celebrate the success of higher education, governmental policies are out-dated and are not capable of grasping the benefits from the most constructive and disruptive factor in the higher education sector: open and online education• While the Academic world wants to show the way – are universities and higher education institutions prepared for reinventing themselves?
  54. 54. So;• The added value from HE• The need for HE around the world• The need for linking jobcreation with knowledge supply• The opportunities from a mor open and online world• The opportunities from open and disruptive innovation• The users needs• The global system failure• The observed paradoxes
  55. 55. A wake up call is needed!
  56. 56. To harvest the benefits from a more Open and Online world To be adressed:Governments (wake up): Universities (shake up):• Governmental policies to • Strategies and leadership facilitate a wanted • Open and Conventional development universities to partner up• Optimal regulatory and policy framework for ODL, incentives • Faculty training, student for OER – training for ODL• Sector overarching policies for • Flip the classroom for mobilising the workforce student-oriented and• Initiatives for research, to personalised learning support effective uptake of • Prepare for reinventing quality ODL and OER yourself
  57. 57. To harvest the benefits from a more Open and Online world To be adressed: HEI, private and public sector: Build partnerships and agreements for knowledge supply, mobilising the workforce
  58. 58. Conclusion• I believe we are at the beginning of a big debate about the future learning system.• We need a professional, policy-oriented debate, in Europe, and throughout the world, on the opportunities and challenges coming from a more open and online world.• Educational systems will be decided nationally, but the direction will also be a global issue.• ICDE will be a visible and eager player in this debate.• And: You are welcome to join!
  59. 59. Thank you!