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Statistics: the grammar of Data Science

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A non-technical presentation about statistics. The goal is to show real examples on misuses, methodology, metrics and communication.

Published in: Technology

Statistics: the grammar of Data Science

  1. 1. STATISTICS THE GRAMMAR OF DATA SCIENCE ÍCARO MEDEIROS Big Data Week São Paulo - SP, 23/11/2015
  2. 2. WHY TO PURSUE SOLID BACKGROUND ON STATISTICS? https://twitter.com/josh_wills/status/198093512149958656
  3. 3. STATISTICS TO HELP NOT GETTING INTO THE DANGER ZONE http://berkeleysciencereview.com/scientific-collaborations-uc-berkeley-data-driven-cover/
  4. 4. INSPIRATIONS FOR THIS KEYNOTE https://speakerdeck.com/jakevdp/statistics-for-hackers https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17986418-naked-statistics
  5. 5. METRICS MEANING METHODS MISUSES- + + +
  6. 6. HOW TO LIE: MOVIE REVIEWS http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fandango-movies-ratings BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE MATH, WE [THINK] IT’S SOMEHOW OBJECTIVELY TRUE, BUT IT’S ALL BASED ON SUBJECTIVE EXPERIENCE
  7. 7. FANDANGO LOVES MOVIES http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fandango-movies-ratings (AND SELLS MOVIE TICKETS)
  8. 8. ATTENTION TO PROVENANCE
  9. 9. HOW TO LIE: ROUNDING http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fandango-movies-ratings
  10. 10. HOW TO LIE: ROUNDING http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fandango-movies-ratings
  11. 11. CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION
  12. 12. SHORT BREAKS AT WORK
 "CAUSE" CANCER Example from ‘Naked Statistics'
  13. 13. SMOKING
 CAUSES CANCER BREAKS AT WORK CORRELATED WITH LEAD TO
  14. 14. SPURIOUS CORRELATIONS http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
  15. 15. A/B TESTING https://vwo.com/ab-testing/
  16. 16. A/B TESTING CAN BE BAD https://www.quora.com/When-should-A-B-testing-not-be-trusted-to-make-decisions/answer/Edwin-Chen-1 ▸Feedback loops ▸Novelty effect ▸Seasonality ▸Wrong metrics http://www.evanmiller.org/how-not-to-run-an-ab-test.html
  17. 17. CHOOSE THE RIGHT METRICS: CLICKS VS DWELL TIME http://yahoolabs.tumblr.com/post/99405569711/science-powering-product-and-personalization
  18. 18. CHOOSE THE RIGHT METRICS: SHARING IS NOT NECESSARILY CARING http://time.com/12933/what-you-think-you-know-about-the-web-is-wrong/
  19. 19. https://xkcd.com/882 (Significant) SIGNIFICANCE
  20. 20. THE RED CARD PROBLEM http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/science-isnt-broken/ http://www.nature.com/news/crowdsourced-research-many-hands-make-tight-work-1.18508
  21. 21. 61 RESEARCHERS: SAME PROBLEM, DIFFERENT METHODS http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/science-isnt-broken/
  22. 22. THE BACON CONTROVERSY
  23. 23. MORE ABOUT P-VALUES https://twitter.com/Ted_Underwood/status/658983555008040960
  24. 24. IS THIS A GOOD CLASSIFICATION? http://www.wired.com/2015/10/who-does-bacon-cause-cancer-sort-of-but-not-really/ 1 CARCINOGENIC 2A PROBABLY 2B POSSIBLY …
  25. 25. EFFECT SIZE: BACON VS CIGARETTES (SAME CATEGORY) This is bacon 18% Cigarette
  26. 26. WAIT FOR IT…
  27. 27. Cigarette 2500% http://www.wired.com/2015/10/who-does-bacon-cause-cancer-sort-of-but-not-really/
  28. 28. http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/oct/26/bacon-ham-sausages-processed-meats-cancer-risk-smoking-says-who https://catracalivre.com.br/geral/sustentavel/indicacao/muito-alem-do-bacon-agrotoxicos-tambem-podem-causar-cancer/
  29. 29. THE SCHRODINGER’S DIET http://www.vox.com/2015/5/20/8621527/health-tips-reporter
  30. 30. ” http://nerds.airbnb.com/scaling-data-science DATA SCIENCE IS AN ACT OF INTERPRETATION OF CUSTOMER'S VOICE
  31. 31. GOOD DATA VISUALIZATION: TIPS FOR SCATTER PLOTS http://content.visage.co/hs-fs/hub/424038/file-2094950163-pdf/Data_Visualization_101_How_to_Design_Charts_and_Graphs.pdf
  32. 32. DAVID MCCANDLESS: INFORMATION IS BEAUTIFUL http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/diversity-in-tech/
  33. 33. IT’S EASY TO LIE WITH STATISTICS, BUT IT’S HARD TO TELL THE TRUTH WITHOUT THEM Andrejs Dunkels, as mentioned on "Naked Statistics" TAKEAWAY MESSAGE
  34. 34. WHY PYTHON IS BETTER FOR DATA SCIENCE MY NEXT TALK São Paulo Big Data Meetup São Paulo - SP, 25/11/2015 VivaReal Portal Imobiliário. Rua Bela Cintra, 539 - Consolação http://www.meetup.com/pt/Sao-Paulo-Big-Data-Meetup
  35. 35. slides icaromedeiros.com.br slideshare.net/icaromedeiros @icaromedeiros

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