On Swedish Energy Scenarios
Experiences, Methodologies, Reflections and some new ideas
Per Lundqvist, Professor, KTH, Stockholm
Scope of presentation
• Energy scenario 2020+ An on-going project (selecting
methodologies, identifying key issues)
• Swedish Energy Scenarios – 1970 to 2014 (overview)
• Brief comment on scenario methodologies
• Identified key elements of the 2020+ Scenario
• Scenario Classification and characterization (what makes
a scenario successful?)
• New concepts: Negotiated modelling and Negotiated
• Six case studies for Sweden + Scotland in the M.Sc.
Course Energy, Models and scenarios spring 2014.
Creating an energy system scenario is:
• A system modelling process – the process needs
skilled and open minded governance!
• A method to investigate todays system as well
• An opportunity to share experiences
• A learning opportunity
• An opportunity to argue from different viewpoints
• Always cross-disciplinary – seek broad competence
and respect each others disciplines!
“…Plans are nothing – planning is everything…”
[Dwight D. Eisenhower]
An ongoing project within Swedish Energy
Agency (aiming at issues after 2020…)
The aim of the 2020+ scenario project is to:
• Identify critical competence gaps in the organization,
• Improve organizations own capability to perform long range
scenarios in parallel with the short term prognosis duties,
• Harmonize the view on sustainability issues and trade-offs
(what does ”A sustainable energy system” mean – really?)
• Enhance future ”buyers competence” for scenario studies (for
years done for the agency by external consultants or
Likely initially unintended outcomes:
• Identify critical research needs – allocate funding
• Support Swedish government in policy making + ????
År 1971 1972 1973 1974 1977 1978
År 1980 1986 1987 1988
Ongoing mapping of influential scenarios
What will happen? What can happen? What should
be done to
make it happen?
Predictive S Explorarative S Normative S
Process scheme for the study 2020+
critical parts of
Setting up next
• What - if?
Setting up next
• Choice of
• Project team
Identified critical elements 2020+ for Sweden
1) How can energy use be minimized in various sectors (housing, industry,
transport)? From lifestyle changes to new efficient technologies. Rebound
2) How can energy supply in the transport/mobility sector be transformed
to biofuels or electricity?
3) How can integrated infrastructure and better planning contribute to
lower energy use in the transport sector?
4) What are the alternatives for heating systems in buildings? (District
Heating, Heat Pumps, Solar Energy etc.)
5) How does increased energy efficiency of buildings relate to social
sustainability and preserved cultural values during renovation and
6) How can a gradually diminishing heating demand be utilized?
7) What are the perspectives on waste incineration and biogas production
in a future sustainable energy system with more recycling?
Identifying critical scenario elements 2
8) What are the alternatives to fossil fuels in the industrial sector (Steel for example,
9) What different views are there on the sustainability of an massive outtake of
bioenergy/biofuels? I.e. the role of biofuels in a future energy system? Export of
10) Which different views are there on the best production chains and
technologies for the utilization of bioenergy?
11) What views are there on how to best utilize a finite biomass resource (energy,
food, plastics, building material)?
12) What is the role of “traditional” power sources in the future energy system
(nuclear energy, hydropower, etc.?)
13) How should the electric power system be adapted to handle more renewable
electricity? Extended transmission capacity? More regulative power? Storage? User
flexibility? Dynamic Pricing (i.e. Smart Grid)
14) What are the sustainability perspectives on a future large scale electricity
export from Sweden? (cables?)
15) In what way must the Swedish energy system adapt to climate change?
Increased cooling demand? Hydropower output and security? Increased biomass
Early factors that influence scenario success
This is part of a on-going
thesis project (part of 2020+)
to charcterize and map
(work in progress…)
The scenario making process is
dependendant on aim(s) and authors
Communicating the scenario determines
Giving the entire map (model)
New ideas (scenarios as learning process)
Two relatively new concepts are proposed (potentially in a two step
• Negotiated modelling
• Negotiated Simulation (sometimes referred to as mediated
Negotiated modelling takes in the stakeholders in the modelling
process from the beginning. What matters? What to include? System
boundaries? Technologies to include? Etc.
Negotiated Simulation allows for interaction for target setting, choice
of technologies, cross-sectorial trade-offs. Stakeholders cannot
change the model but need to understand and accept it
Some stakeholders may take part in step 1 or 2 only.
Sector Parameter Indicators
Primary Energy National mix
Renewable energy share
KW (Installed cap)
(Offices, Shopping malls)
(Schools, sports, hospital)
Area (sq. m.)
Waste production per
Water Hot water
General use water
Hot water requirement
Policies Building regulations
Six comparative case studies
”Topic” Sweden Scotland
1. What if we have:
Heat Pumps with
How can smart heat
pumps in Single
contribute to balance
Can heat pumps in
district heating nets
increase potential for
2. What if we have:
of Electric cars
How should an
work to utilize a big
electric car fleet
How can electric
the grid and IPRE
3. What if we have:
Prosumers in the
How can prosumers
fit in the future Swe.
How can prosumers
fit in the future Sco.
Strategic scenarios (business development focus) in a ”what-if” prognosis context
Thank you for the attention!
070 636 33 00