On Swedish Energy Scenarios | Per Lundqvist


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  • On Swedish Energy Scenarios | Per Lundqvist

    1. 1. On Swedish Energy Scenarios Experiences, Methodologies, Reflections and some new ideas Per Lundqvist, Professor, KTH, Stockholm
    2. 2. Scope of presentation • Energy scenario 2020+ An on-going project (selecting methodologies, identifying key issues) • Swedish Energy Scenarios – 1970 to 2014 (overview) • Brief comment on scenario methodologies • Identified key elements of the 2020+ Scenario • Scenario Classification and characterization (what makes a scenario successful?) • New concepts: Negotiated modelling and Negotiated Simulation • Six case studies for Sweden + Scotland in the M.Sc. Course Energy, Models and scenarios spring 2014.
    3. 3. Creating an energy system scenario is: • A system modelling process – the process needs skilled and open minded governance! • A method to investigate todays system as well • An opportunity to share experiences • A learning opportunity • An opportunity to argue from different viewpoints • Always cross-disciplinary – seek broad competence and respect each others disciplines! “…Plans are nothing – planning is everything…” [Dwight D. Eisenhower]
    4. 4. An ongoing project within Swedish Energy Agency (aiming at issues after 2020…) The aim of the 2020+ scenario project is to: • Identify critical competence gaps in the organization, • Improve organizations own capability to perform long range scenarios in parallel with the short term prognosis duties, • Harmonize the view on sustainability issues and trade-offs (what does ”A sustainable energy system” mean – really?) • Enhance future ”buyers competence” for scenario studies (for years done for the agency by external consultants or researchers) Likely initially unintended outcomes: • Identify critical research needs – allocate funding • Support Swedish government in policy making + ????
    5. 5. Scenario LimitstoGrowth Energikommissionen- Energihushållning SolellerUran? År 1971 1972 1973 1974 1977 1978 Worlds View factors Arbetsgruppunder ledningavstatsrådet AlvaMyrdaltillsattes FN:sförsta internationella klimatkonferensi Stockholm Oljekris& Sekretariatetför Framtidsstudier bildades InternationalEnergy Agency(IEA)bildades Oljekris Känrkraftsolyckai ThreeMileIsland Scenario Kaijseretal.-Att ändrariktning:villkor förnyenergiteknik År 1980 1986 1987 1988 World view Factors Folkomröstningom kärnkraft Kärnkraftsolyckai Tjernobyl Bruntland- kommissionens rapportpubliceras InternationalPanel onClimateChange (IPCC)bildades Ongoing mapping of influential scenarios
    6. 6. Scenario Steenetal.-Energiåt kommunerna!&Shell 1992-2020 Meyeretal-Sustainable energyscenariosforthe Scandinaviancountries Byggforskningsrådet- Energianvändning vägvalförframtiden PeterSteen-Färderi framtiden ChristianAzar&Kristian Lindgren-Energilägetår 2050 Klimatkommittén- FörslagtillSvensk Klimatstrategi(SOU 2000:23) År 1990 1992 1993 1996 1997 1998 1999 World view factors IPCCpublicerarsin förstarapport,First AssessemtReport FN:sklimatkonferensi RiodeJaneiro SverigeratificeradeFN:s klimatkonvention Kyotoprotokollet Scenario IVA-Energin-moten nyera Jochemetal.-Steps towardsasustainable development(2kS) PerFlorén-Whatif- scenarier&Shellglobal scenariosto2050 Oljekommissionen& E.on-MOSES Naturvårdsverket- Tvågradsmåletisikte? Höjeretal.& McKinsey&Company SvenskEnergi/Elforsk Profu EcofysEnergyScenario &IVL–Scenariosfor 2050 SEI-Energyfora SharedDevelopment Agenda Wangeletal.-Goal- basedsocio-technical scenarios Chmutina&Goddier- Alternativefuture energypathways År 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 World view factors Klimatkonferensi Köpenhamn, Kärnkraftsolyckai Fukushima Klimatkonferensi Cancun Klimatkonferensii Durban
    7. 7. What will happen? What can happen? What should be done to make it happen? ”what If” ”Prognosis” strategic scenarios Preserving scenarios Transforming (back- casting) External scenarios Predictive S Explorarative S Normative S Scenarios
    8. 8. Process scheme for the study 2020+ 1. Identifying critical parts of the system • Issues • Stakeholders • Conflicts • Definitions (lack) • Knowledge gaps Setting up next stage: adaption 2. Methodo- logical issues • Back casting? • Strategic scenarios • What - if? Setting up next stage: adaption 3. Negotiated modelling: • Choice of modelling software • Project team • Reference group • stakeholders 4. Negotiated simulation: • Scenario communi- cation • Stakeholder interaction
    9. 9. Identified critical elements 2020+ for Sweden 1) How can energy use be minimized in various sectors (housing, industry, transport)? From lifestyle changes to new efficient technologies. Rebound effects? 2) How can energy supply in the transport/mobility sector be transformed to biofuels or electricity? 3) How can integrated infrastructure and better planning contribute to lower energy use in the transport sector? 4) What are the alternatives for heating systems in buildings? (District Heating, Heat Pumps, Solar Energy etc.) 5) How does increased energy efficiency of buildings relate to social sustainability and preserved cultural values during renovation and refurbishment`? 6) How can a gradually diminishing heating demand be utilized? 7) What are the perspectives on waste incineration and biogas production in a future sustainable energy system with more recycling?
    10. 10. Identifying critical scenario elements 2 8) What are the alternatives to fossil fuels in the industrial sector (Steel for example, CCS, CCU)? 9) What different views are there on the sustainability of an massive outtake of bioenergy/biofuels? I.e. the role of biofuels in a future energy system? Export of bioenergy? 10) Which different views are there on the best production chains and technologies for the utilization of bioenergy? 11) What views are there on how to best utilize a finite biomass resource (energy, food, plastics, building material)? 12) What is the role of “traditional” power sources in the future energy system (nuclear energy, hydropower, etc.?) 13) How should the electric power system be adapted to handle more renewable electricity? Extended transmission capacity? More regulative power? Storage? User flexibility? Dynamic Pricing (i.e. Smart Grid) 14) What are the sustainability perspectives on a future large scale electricity export from Sweden? (cables?) 15) In what way must the Swedish energy system adapt to climate change? Increased cooling demand? Hydropower output and security? Increased biomass growth rates?
    11. 11. Early factors that influence scenario success Aim(s) Target group Authors triggers World Wiew Descition makers Timing Initiator Overarching goal This is part of a on-going thesis project (part of 2020+) to charcterize and map energy scenarios (work in progress…)
    12. 12. The scenario making process is dependendant on aim(s) and authors Aim(s) Type of scenario Architecture Method Presentation Target group AuthorsDescition makers
    13. 13. Communicating the scenario determines success Architecture Method Presentation Target group Other recievers Success Success factors
    14. 14. Giving the entire map (model) Aim(s) Type of scenario Architecture Method Presentation Target group Other recievers Success Success factors Authors Triggers World View Decision makers Timing Initiator Overarching goal
    15. 15. New ideas (scenarios as learning process) Two relatively new concepts are proposed (potentially in a two step process): • Negotiated modelling • Negotiated Simulation (sometimes referred to as mediated simulation) Negotiated modelling takes in the stakeholders in the modelling process from the beginning. What matters? What to include? System boundaries? Technologies to include? Etc. Negotiated Simulation allows for interaction for target setting, choice of technologies, cross-sectorial trade-offs. Stakeholders cannot change the model but need to understand and accept it Some stakeholders may take part in step 1 or 2 only.
    16. 16. Conceptual Model
    17. 17. Block Model
    18. 18. Sector Parameter Indicators Primary Energy National mix Renewable energy share Biogas (Y/N) KWh KW (Installed cap) Buildings Types Residential (3 types) Commercial (Offices, Shopping malls) Community (Schools, sports, hospital) Area (sq. m.) Percentage Transport Modes Cars Car sharing Bus/tram Bikes Km/liter/day Percentage share Fuel types Kg CO2/km Waste Types Burnable Organic Recyclable Landfill Hazardous Waste production per cap. Percentage share Water Hot water Drinking water General use water Liters/day/cap. Hot water requirement Policies Building regulations 1 star 2 star 3 star Users Types Environmentally aware Moderate High consumption InputParameters
    19. 19. Six comparative case studies ”Topic” Sweden Scotland 1. What if we have: Heat Pumps with smart grid capability How can smart heat pumps in Single family dwellings contribute to balance fluctuating electricity production Can heat pumps in district heating nets increase potential for renewable electricity (IPRE) 2. What if we have: Massive expansion of Electric cars How should an electricity supplier work to utilize a big electric car fleet How can electric Car-Pools stabilize the grid and IPRE 3. What if we have: Prosumers in the future energy system How can prosumers fit in the future Swe. energy system? How can prosumers fit in the future Sco. energy system? Strategic scenarios (business development focus) in a ”what-if” prognosis context
    20. 20. Thank you for the attention! Qestions? Per Lundqvist perlund@kth.se www.energy.kth.se 070 636 33 00