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GHG Emission Savings from Projects<br />Matthew Brander, Ecometrica<br />

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Overview of presentation:<br />Why quantify emission savings from community projects?<br />How to measure project savings.<br />A warning about emission savings factors.<br />The importance of project lifetimes – rather than just annual savings.<br />Getting the right balance between data quality and other commitments<br />Linking reported carbon savings from communities to regional or national carbon accounts.<br />Uncertainty about the stickiness/lifetime of behaviour change<br />

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Why quantify emission reductions:<br />Helps in project design, i.e. allows efforts to be focused where the biggest emission reductions can be achieved, and helps to identify (and then address) project activities which increase emissions.<br />Getting feedback on actual savings achieved can motivate the community. <br />Provides information to funders on the impact of the project.<br />Could (possibly) feed into wider assessments for regional/national mitigation planning.<br />

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Baseline scenario<br />Emissions <br />(tCO<br />e)<br />2<br />Carbon savings<br />Project scenario<br />Years<br />Calculating Project Emissions Savings<br /><ul><li>The difference between the baseline and project scenarios

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Baseline emissions – project emissions = emissions saving</li></li></ul><li>A warning about emission saving factors:<br />A baseline is implied – and it may not be obvious what this assumed baseline is!<br />Example:<br /><ul><li> Emissions savings from loft insulation (730 kgCO2e saving per year from loft insulation)</li></li></ul><li>Emission saving factors – continued<br /><ul><li> Where possible it is better to use representative baseline activity data, and the relevant emission factor for the activity in question.

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E.g. Use representative baseline energy consumption data (primary or secondary) and apply a % saving factor to the baseline data to derive “project scenario” activity data. And apply the appropriate emission factor, e.g. fuel oil factor, for the fuel type used.

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However, in some cases it may not be practical to collect data for a more accurate estimate and “emission saving factors” will be the best available option.</li></li></ul><li>The importance of intervention lifetimes:<br />“Lifetime” is the total length of time that an “action” or “intervention” causes a change from what would have happened in the baseline.<br />E.g. The lifetime of a biomass boiler is 15 to 20 years, loft insulation is 30 to 40 years, pledged behaviour change is ? years.<br />Looking at the lifetime of an intervention is necessary to quantify the total savings achieved (some measures may have low annual savings but last for a long time, others have higher annual savings but only last a short time).<br />

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The importance of intervention lifetimes – comparing interventions:<br />Annual savings only:<br />Annual savings from Intervention A = 10 tCO2e/yr<br />Annual savings from Intervention B = 2 tCO2e/yr<br />Conclusion: Intervention A saves more than Intervention B<br />Lifetime savings:<br />Lifetime savings from Intervention A = 10 tCO2e/yr * 2 years = 20 tCO2e<br />Lifetime savings from Intervention B = 2 tCO2e/yr * 30 years = 60 tCO2e<br />Conclusion: Intervention B saves more than Intervention A<br />

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Getting the right balance between measurement and implementation<br />Weigh up the time required for better measurement and the value of increased accuracy.<br />Sometimes better quality data doesn’t take longer to collect.<br />Mix and match primary and secondary data<br />

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Linking community reporting to regional or national reporting:<br />Distinction between emission inventories (e.g. national inventories) and quantified reductions (e.g. for climate change mitigation planning).<br />Many community project savings will be captured by other schemes, e.g. FIT, RHI, CERT or EST reporting – but lots won’t.<br /><ul><li>Possibility of double-counting.</li></ul>Some reductions will occur outside Scotland – so will reduce someone else’s production-based national inventory emissions (but will reduce Scotland’s consumption based inventory)<br />

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Baseline scenario<br />Emissions <br />(tCO<br />e)<br />2<br />Carbon savings<br />Project scenario<br />Years<br />Uncertainty about stickiness/ lifetime of behaviour change:<br />How long does behaviour change last for?<br />

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Uncertainty about stickiness/ lifetime of behaviour change:<br />Analogy: which bicycle would you choose:<br /><ul><li>Bicycle A: guaranteed to last for between 15 and 20 years

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Bicycle B: unknown how long it will last for</li></ul>We need good longitudinal studies on how long behaviour change lasts for – to estimate the carbon savings from behaviour change projects.<br />

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Good sources for factors and secondary data:<br />Emission Factors:<br />Defra 2010.http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/economy/business-efficiency/reporting/<br />IAG 2010 – electricity factors. http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/analysts_group/analysts_group.aspx<br />CCF review report appendix – derived emission factors<br />How Low Can We Go (p38) – food factors. http://assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/how_low_can_we_go.pdf<br />ADAS 2009 – food factors. http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Default.aspx?Menu=Menu&Module=More&Location=None&Completed=0&ProjectID=15650<br />University of Bath 2008. Inventory of Carbon and Energy. Version 1.6a. http://www.bath.ac.uk/mech-eng/sert/embodied/<br />

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Good sources for factors and secondary data:<br />Emission Saving Factors:<br />Energy Saving Trust web site. http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/Energy-saving-assumptions<br />BUT – implicit baseline and other assumptions<br />Secondary Data:<br />DECC. Domestic electricity consumption. http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/regional/mlsoa_llsoa/mlsoa_2008/mlsoa_2008.aspx<br />DECC. Domestic gas consumption. http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/regional/mlsoa_llsoa/mlsoa_2008/mlsoa_2008.aspx<br />

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Good sources for factors and secondary data:<br />Intervention Lifetimes:<br />CERT 2011. http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Pages/MoreInformation.aspx?file=Carbon%20Emissions%20Reduction%20Target%20Carbon%20Reduction%20Matrix.xls&refer=Sustainability/Environment/EnergyEff/InfProjMngrs<br />Carbon Trust (2010). Persistence Factors. http://www.carbontrust.co.uk/cut-carbon-reduce-costs/calculate/carbon-footprinting/Documents/persistence-factor-taxonomy.pdf<br />