Meaningful comparison? NB: this slide does not give an accurate comparison of performance Food processing business Food non-food split Food- non-food split Food non-food split Use of biodiesel Green tariff electricity Green tariff electricity Data estimated Data incomplete No Data
An alternative strategy Add note on fridge energy? Refrigeration Tesco CSR Report 2007 % f-gas leakage pa KWh/linear meter of refrigeration Diesel litres/pallet delivered Average store energy rating % electricity from renewables weighted for additionality
Framework for baseline predictions DECoRuM baseline energy model estimates energy consumption and CO 2 emissions of individual dwellings as the basic component for calculation, and then aggregates these to an urban scale.
In conclusion Top down approaches Are they complementary to each other? What do we need to adopt for cities to be able to estimate baseline emissions, predict potential emission reductions, and take action? Bottom-up models
10 20 30 40 50 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1990 Carbon dioxide emissions (MtCO 2 ) Draft London Plan targets 15% 20% 25% 30% 60% Today (+0.7 ° C already) Stern indicates the London Plan targets will not be sufficient 60% 90% New evidence? 2025
London: Where emissions come from: 21% 7% Emissions from London Domestic Commercial (inc. public sector) Industrial Ground-based Transport
Carbon Dioxide Emissions will include: (Source:Robert Cohen) Probably the most ‘correct’ approach is to split the scores into four categories: - Direct and measurable - Indirect, pro-rated on the bases of purchases - Indirect, not pro-rated and attributed to the industrial sectors - Fixed infrastructure, not pro-rated and attributable to government policy . Peter Harper, Centre for Alternative technology DIRECT EMISSIONS 34% HOUSE ENERGY 19.5% TRANSPORT ENERGY 14.5% INDIRECT PRO RATA EMISSONS 51% INDIRECT INFRASTRUCTURAL EMISSONS 15%
Wind – It works and is available on site House height 8m 400W turbine Electricity provision: 20% of a household Height: 2m Cost: £1500-2000 6kW turbine Electricity provision: 3.5 houses or 20% of a primary school Height: 9m Cost: £15-18k 220kW turbine Electricity provision: 85 houses or 5 primary schools Height: 36m Cost: £550-700k 1.5MW turbine Electricity provision: 1200 houses or 75 primary schools Height: 65m Cost: £1-1.5 million
Key recomendations: 142,000 644,180 134 20,578 TOTAL 35.53 35,000 36,500 6.9 985 Solar hot water systems 3.58 100,000 442,080 84 11,936 Under floor heating with GSHP and wind turbine - 0 48,960 21 2,693 Natural ventilation of the sports hall 0.56 2,000 64,800 12.3 3,564 Optimisation of the natural day lighting of the hall 3.57 5,000 51,840 9.9 1,400 high thermal efficiency of sports hall £ kWh tonnes £ (years) Energy Savings CO2 Savings Financial Savings Payback period Estimated Cost of Measure Estimated Annual Savings Recommendations and Key Actions
Sue Roaf Professor of Architectural Engineering Heriot Watt University Edinburgh [email_address]
Comment on indirect emissions – upstream/downstream
Share of total UK emissions - Doesn’t include upstream/downstream
Broadly speaking, London Plan targets were based on 550 ppm target – whcih has now been revised to 450 or below They are in line with UK/Royal Commission targets (ie not too much more dramatic) But Tyndall analysis in Stern report indicates Need to take a ‘overall carbon budget’ approach, not linear targets – this is why short term action is key! 450 ppm required – and this only gives us a 50/50 chance of avoiding catastrophic climate change (3 degrees celsius or less)
In the UK we have 40% of Europe's total wind energy. But it's still largely untapped and only 0.5% of our electricity requirements are currently generated by wind power.