Working Sessions for Scenarios | Jaco Quist, Tony Craig, Gary Polhil

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Working Sessions for Scenarios | Jaco Quist, Tony Craig, Gary Polhil

  1. 1. 1Challenge the future Backcasting for 100% Renewables in Scotland in 2030: Woking sessions for scenarios Jaco Quist, j.n.quist@tudelft.nl Tony Craig, tony.craig@hutton.ac.uk Gary Polhil, gary.polhill@hutton.ac.uk
  2. 2. 2Challenge the future Scenarios, Rooms, People 1. UK Centric scenario • Plenary Room • Vision Lead Iain Staffell • Facilitator Gary Polhil 2. Scotland Alone scenario • Breakout Room • Vision Lead Stewart Haseldine, • Facilitator Tony Craig 3. Local Energy Autarky scenario • Pod Room • Vision Lead Andrew Peacock • Facilitator Jaco Quist
  3. 3. 3Challenge the future Step 1 Strategic Problem orientation Analysis Step 2 Normative future image Vision Step 3 Backcasting What is necessary? Step 4 Elaboration, analysis Action agenda Step 5 Embedding, ‘implementation’ Follow-up Methods: I Analysis, II Design, III Interaction, IV Management Demands: i Normative, ii Process, iii Knowledge Backcasting: methodological framework
  4. 4. 4Challenge the future 4 October 4, 2011 4 20502000 TIME Vision of the future S T E P S Backcasting: step by step 1. SPO 2. Make vision 3. BC 4. Pathway & Agenda 5. Embedding & Implementatio n
  5. 5. 5Challenge the future Program (Round 1) • 11.30 – 13.00 First round of visioning & backcasting • Vision Lead Introduction (15 minutes) • What are major parts/elements of vision (Technological, Cultural, Structural)? (15 mins) • Making teams of 5 people • What goals & targets to be achieved in 2030? (15 mins) • Backcasting (in groups of 4-5) (12.15-13.00 hr) • What changes are necessary (C, S, T)? • How can these changes be achieved? • Who (which stakeholders) are needed? • What are drivers & barriers & how can be dealt with these? Backcasting Report Back (15 minutes)
  6. 6. 6Challenge the future What are major parts of vision? (STEP 2) Type of element/part (by part of system) Elements/parts for vision Technological elements/parts (think along supply chain) Cultural-Behavioural elements/parts Structural-Institutional elements/parts (this is about power & governance & who is in charge) (think along supply chain and how it is organised)
  7. 7. 7Challenge the future Some goals & targets (STEP 2) Type of goal/targets Goals/target Technological goals/targets (including efficiency) - e.g. energy saving (%), increase in energy efficiency (%) adoption share of certain technologies (%) Cultural-Behavioural goals/targets (including demand side reduction - e.g. Reduction of energy consumption(%) e.g. raise in awareness, shift to sustainable behaviour Structural-Institutional goals/targets (including structural change) e.g changes in energy system (shift to public utilities or community owned (prosumers) Other kinds of goals/targets
  8. 8. 8Challenge the future 100% renewables 2030 3 Subgroups for 3 visions 1. What changes are necessary (C, S, T)? 2. How can these changes be achieved? 3. Who (which stakeholders) are needed? 4. What are drivers and barriers for this System Innovation? Adjusting future vision allowed! Today: Scotland backcasting excersise Future Vision
  9. 9. 9Challenge the future Backcasting analysis (STEP 3) WHAT (change elements) HOW (activities) WHO (stakeholders) Technological Changes Cultural-Behav. Changes Structural-Instit. Changes
  10. 10. 10Challenge the future Program (2) • 14.00 – 15.30 Scenario Elaboration for 3 visions in teams of 4/5 • Defining Pathways (2015-2020-2030) (40 minutes) • What activities are needed in government domain (over time)? • What activities are needed in business-utilities domain (over time)? • What activities are needed in research-knowledge domain? • What activities are needed in civil society-public interest domain? • What is a good follow-up agenda and next steps? • Exchange within one vision group (25 minutes) • Preparing plenary presentations (25 minutes)
  11. 11. 11Challenge the future Program (2A) – Step 4 • Defining Pathways (current-2020-2030) (40 minutes) • you can get back to earlier work (but not too long) • What activities needed in government domain (over time)? • What activities needed in business-utilities domain (over time)? • What activities needed in research-knowledge domain? • What activities needed in civil society-public interest domain? • What is a good follow-up agenda and next steps?
  12. 12. 12Challenge the future Activities & results NOW Activities & results 2020 Activities & results 2030 Government-policy domain Government Now Government till 2020 Government till 2030 R&D & knowledge domain (including technology development) R&D Now R&D till 2020 R&D till 2030 Business-Industry-Producers-Utilties Domain Production Now Production till 2020 Production till 2030 Public Interest-Citizens-Consumption Domain Citizens-NGO Now Citizens-NGO till 2020 Citizens-NGO till 2030
  13. 13. 13Challenge the future Program (2B) • Volunteers for presenting the scenario results • Who is willing to present the results (1-2 persons)? • 14.40 – 15.05 Exchange within one vision group (25 minutes) • 15.05 – 15.30 Preparing plenary presentations (25 minutes)
  14. 14. 14Challenge the future THANK YOU VERY MUCH
  15. 15. 15Challenge the future Criteria for this Scenario • 100% Renewable (also a goal) • Affordability? • Energy security?
  16. 16. 16Challenge the future Program (3) • 16.00 – 17.15 Plenary Reporting & Discussion • 16.00-16.20 Stand alone Scottish Network Scenario • 16.20-16.40 Local Energy Autarky Scenario • 16.40-17.00 UK Centric Scenario • Final Discussion & Next Steps (17.00-17.15) • 17.15 – 18.30 Reception and Networking
  17. 17. 17Challenge the future PESTELED trends & developments • What are major trends & developments for the Energy System in Scotland & which ones need to we change? • Political trends & decelopments • Economic trends & developments • Socio-cultural trends & developments • Technological trends & developments • Ecological-Environmental trends & developments • Legal-Instiutional trends & developments • Ethical trends & developments • Demographic trends & developments
  18. 18. 18Challenge the future (types of) trends for scenario Expected Development (high-medium- low) Outcome External/ Accepted/ Changed Political e.g. extent of autonomy/independence for Scotland Etc Economic E.g, expected growth (OR NOT) Shift away from growth paradigm Expected increase or decrease in energy & electricity demand Etc Socio-cultural Ongoing individualization or increasing community orientation Growing environmental awareness (OR NOT) Sustainability through increased eco-efficiency or through changed behavior at demand side. Increasing culture of moderation & austerity OR NOT Etc. Technological High-tech or low-tech Further development & use of smart grids Etc.
  19. 19. 19Challenge the future (types of) trends for scenario Expected Development (high-medium- low) Outcome External/ Accepted/ Changed Ecological (Increasing) kinds of Climate Change impacts in Scotland Etc. Legal-Regulatory-Institutional Electricity through public utility, market orientation (fully private firms), or community & bottom-up. Increase in carbon trading or not. Personal carbon limits/taxes. Etc. Ethical Growing inequality or not Increasing fuel poverty (OR NOT) Etc. Demographic Population growth Extent of urbanization Etc.

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