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Missing the target?  To what extent does the rebound effect cause a shortfall in expected carbon reductions? Angela Druckm...
Progress towards a low carbon society? <ul><li>UK Government is relying on households to be key actors in achieving its GH...
Illustration of rebound effects Lower  running  costs Driver further or more often Lower  petrol bills  Holiday in Spain F...
Rebound effect studies <ul><li>To what extent is the rebound effect a problem? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How can it be minimis...
Abatement actions study <ul><li>Household:  reduce thermostat by 1 o C;  </li></ul><ul><li>Food:  reduce food waste;  </li...
Abatement action study Action £ Expenditure avoided Re-use £ Re-spend Bank/Invest Expected GHG reduction Δ H GHGs due to r...
Re-use of avoided expenditure <ul><li>‘ Behaviour as usual’ </li></ul><ul><ul><li>according to income elasticities; </li><...
Underlying models <ul><li>SELMA Surrey Environmental Lifestyle Mapping Framework  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GHG intensities of...
Limitations <ul><li>Assume no economy-wide price effects. </li></ul><ul><li>UK average household; </li></ul><ul><li>16 exp...
UK estimated average household expenditures and GHGs in 2008
Estimated average annual UK household expenditure and savings
Estimated average annual UK household GHG emissions
GHG intensities
Results of study
Rebound effect for different actions: ‘ Behaviour as usual ’
All 3 actions with varying assumptions concerning re-spend Green investment
Energy efficiency study <ul><li>Additional parameters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Embodied energy  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ca...
Energy Efficiency Study Results Source: Chitnis, Sorrell, Firth, Druckman and Jackson (forthcoming) * Assumes behaviour as...
.... Our next study: <ul><li>Variation of rebound across income groups </li></ul>
Policy implications <ul><li>Rebound is not negligible. Policy-makers need to take it into account. </li></ul><ul><li>Shift...
References <ul><li>Druckman, A., M. Chitnis, S. Sorrell and T. Jackson (2011). &quot;Missing carbon reductions? Exploring ...
Missing the target?  To what extent does the rebound effect cause a shortfall in expected carbon reductions? Angela Druckm...
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Angela Druckman | Missing the target: To What Extent Does the Rebound Effect Cause a Shortfall in Expected Carbon Reductions

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Presented at the 4th International Conference on Carbon Accounting
25th November 2011
www.icarb.org

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Angela Druckman | Missing the target: To What Extent Does the Rebound Effect Cause a Shortfall in Expected Carbon Reductions

  1. 1. Missing the target? To what extent does the rebound effect cause a shortfall in expected carbon reductions? Angela Druckman, Mona Chitnis, Steve Sorrell and Tim Jackson 4th International Conference on Carbon Accounting Edinburgh Conference Center 25th November 2011
  2. 2. Progress towards a low carbon society? <ul><li>UK Government is relying on households to be key actors in achieving its GHG emissions reduction targets; </li></ul><ul><li>Consumption emissions generally rising; </li></ul><ul><li>Why? Lack of effective policies? ........ or a systemic problem? </li></ul>
  3. 3. Illustration of rebound effects Lower running costs Driver further or more often Lower petrol bills Holiday in Spain Fuel efficient - less energy More energy More energy Direct Indirect Embodied energy
  4. 4. Rebound effect studies <ul><li>To what extent is the rebound effect a problem? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How can it be minimised? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Energy v. CO 2 v. GHG emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Two studies: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Abatement actions – lead to indirect rebound effect only; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy efficiency actions – lead to direct and indirect rebound effects. </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Abatement actions study <ul><li>Household: reduce thermostat by 1 o C; </li></ul><ul><li>Food: reduce food waste; </li></ul><ul><li>Transport : replace car journeys <2miles by walking/cycling. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Abatement action study Action £ Expenditure avoided Re-use £ Re-spend Bank/Invest Expected GHG reduction Δ H GHGs due to re-use Δ G Rebound = If Δ G > Δ H; Rebound > 100%; Backfire
  7. 7. Re-use of avoided expenditure <ul><li>‘ Behaviour as usual’ </li></ul><ul><ul><li>according to income elasticities; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>‘ Least worst’ rebound </li></ul><ul><ul><li>in least GHG intensive category; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Worst case rebound </li></ul><ul><ul><li>in most GHG intensive category; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Effect of changing savings? </li></ul>
  8. 8. Underlying models <ul><li>SELMA Surrey Environmental Lifestyle Mapping Framework </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GHG intensities of UK household consumption and savings (1992-2004); </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quasi-Multi-Regional Environmentally-Extended Input-Output model. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>ELESA Econometric Lifestyle Environmental Scenario Analysis model </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Income elasticities; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Exogenous Non-Economic Factors (ExNEF) (total non-price and non-income effects). </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Limitations <ul><li>Assume no economy-wide price effects. </li></ul><ul><li>UK average household; </li></ul><ul><li>16 expenditure categories. </li></ul>£££
  10. 10. UK estimated average household expenditures and GHGs in 2008
  11. 11. Estimated average annual UK household expenditure and savings
  12. 12. Estimated average annual UK household GHG emissions
  13. 13. GHG intensities
  14. 14. Results of study
  15. 15. Rebound effect for different actions: ‘ Behaviour as usual ’
  16. 16. All 3 actions with varying assumptions concerning re-spend Green investment
  17. 17. Energy efficiency study <ul><li>Additional parameters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Embodied energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Capital expenditure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Subsidized/unsubsidized </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>From loan or savings </li></ul></ul></ul>Collaboration with Steven Firth, Loughborough University
  18. 18. Energy Efficiency Study Results Source: Chitnis, Sorrell, Firth, Druckman and Jackson (forthcoming) * Assumes behaviour as usual   Measure Rebound *   Minimum Maximum 1 Cavity wall insulation 3 9 2 Loft insulation professional to 270 mm -21 26 3 Condensing boiler 7 7 4 Tank insulation 6 8 5 CFL 9 12 6 LED -14 8 7 1,2,3,4, 5 in combination 3 10 8 1,2,3,4, 6 in combination 1 10 9 Solar thermal -302 28 10 Diesel efficient car 40 40
  19. 19. .... Our next study: <ul><li>Variation of rebound across income groups </li></ul>
  20. 20. Policy implications <ul><li>Rebound is not negligible. Policy-makers need to take it into account. </li></ul><ul><li>Shift patterns of expenditure to lower GHG intensive goods and services; </li></ul><ul><li>Encourage ‘green’ investment’. </li></ul>
  21. 21. References <ul><li>Druckman, A., M. Chitnis, S. Sorrell and T. Jackson (2011). &quot;Missing carbon reductions? Exploring rebound and backfire effects in UK households &quot; Energy Policy 39: 3572–3581. </li></ul><ul><li>Sorrell, S. (2007). The rebound effect: an assessment of the evidence for economy-wide energy savings from improved energy efficiency. London, UK, UKERC. </li></ul><ul><li>........ watch this space …… </li></ul>
  22. 22. Missing the target? To what extent does the rebound effect cause a shortfall in expected carbon reductions? Angela Druckman, Mona Chitnis, Steve Sorrell and Tim Jackson Contact: [email_address] 5th International Conference on Carbon Accounting Edinburgh Conference Center 25th November 2011

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