Accounting for Carbon in
Copenhagen
Energieffektivitet i byggeriet:
xxx
ICARB Conference, Edinburgh
September 5 2014
Morten Hojer
Climate Unit, City of Copenhagen

London School of Economics launched report on Copenhagen
as a ”green economy leader” in June 2014
Is there is an economic rationale for early action on ”green” growth in cities?
Source: LSE, Economics of Green Cities Programme (2011-2015). 2

The intellectual foundation of the LSE report spans across a
diversity of fields (1/3)
3
1990
1995
2001
From science… … to economics
2007
2013
The Stern Review (2006) argued that
the benefits of strong, early action on
climate change outweigh the costs:
• Without action, overall costs of
climate change are equvalent to
5%-20% of world GDP each year
• The impacts are irreversible and
unevenly distributed; poor people in
less developed countries are likely
to suffer most
• To avoid the worst effects of climate
change about 2% of world GDP
needs to be invested

The intellectual foundation of the LSE report spans across a
diversity of fields (2/3)
…to economics of urban agglomeration
“Cities are actually the healthiest,
greenest, and richest places to live. New
Yorkers, for instance, live longer than
other Americans; heart disease and
cancer rates are lower in Gotham than in
the nation as a whole. More than half of
America’s income is earned in twenty-two
metropolitan areas. And city dwellers
use, on average, 40 percent less energy
than suburbanites.”
New York Times Review of Books
2011 4

The intellectual foundation of the LSE report spans across a
diversity of fields (3/3)
5
… to a new ”industrial” revolution

The state of the debate
Neutral
Growth and
climate have
tradeoffs
Growth and
climate have
co-benefits
▪ Growth model too
fragile to take on
climate action now
▪ High energy costs will
kill growth and create
competitive
asymmetries
▪ Climate action puts
an unfair burden on
the developing world
▪ There are multiple
factors which affect
growth in the next 3-
5-10 years which are
more important than
climate action (which
is frankly second-order)
▪ Higher resource
efficiency can lead to
better short-term
growth/less volatility
▪ There are major co-benefits
(air quality)
▪ Cleantech is an
enormous innovation
driver that will
spillover positively to
the whole economy
Source: The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, New Climate Economy project. 6

What is Copenhagen doing
about it?
Energieffektivitet i byggeriet:
xxx

Over the past 20 years, Copenhagen’s economy grew by 25%
while simultaneously reducing GHG emissions by 40%
8

Urban crisis and de-population followed by inner-city
densification
9

Despite a low average population density, housing and
employment areas have been planned with good accessibility
10

Low levels of vehicle ownership per capita
11

Low time costs of journey-to-work indicate a very effective
urban transport network
12

Copenhagen carbon neutral
by 2025
Energieffektivitet i byggeriet:
xxx

There are big challenges…
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• Carbon: From 20 pct to 100 pct reduction in 10 years
• Population: +20 pct increase in 2025
• Housing: +25.000 new units
• Office spaces: +2,8 mio. m2

… and opportunities
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Potential emissions reductions of 1,2 mio. tons of CO2e have
been identified…
Energy
production
Energy
consumption
Green
mobility
Million tCO2e per year
City
administration
Total
Selected initiatives
▪ Biomass-based combined heat and power
▪ Land and offshore wind turbines
▪ Separation of plastics from waste
▪ Energy retrofitting of existing buildings
▪ Low-energy new build
▪ Solar PV
▪ City of Cyclists
▪ Alternative fuel vehicles (electric, hydrogen)
▪ Biogas and hybrid busses
▪ Intelligent traffic systems (ITS)
▪ Energy efficiency in own buildings
▪ New fuels in municipal vehicle fleet
▪ LED street lights
New initiatives
▪ New initiatives at EU-level (energy, renewables, transport)
▪ New initiatives at national level (energy, transport)
▪ New initiatives at city-level (construction, transport)
0,9
0,1
0,1
0,1
1,2
16

… that require massive investments in Copenhagen 2013-
2025
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Public Investments
City of Copenhagen
0,4 bn€
Private Investments
Direct Investments
3,25 bn€
Private Investments
Energy and Climate Investments
32,8 bn€
9
85

On the day the ”green economy” finally arrives
18

Thank you for your attention
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MORTEN HOJER
Special Advisor on
Climate and Green Growth
(+45) 23 39 34 43
morten.hojer@tmf.kk.dk
www.kk.dk/climate and
www.kk.dk/english