16 kapil

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16 kapil

  1. 1. COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SECURITY (SES) OF VARIOUS ENERGY SOURCES AT HOUSEHOLD LEVEL IN INDIA Cdr Kapil Narula Instructor, Faculty of Electronics and Communication Engineering, Indian Naval Academy, Ezhimala, Dist Kannur, Kerala – 670310 (India) PhD Research Scholar, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Gen. A.K. Vaidya Marg, Goregaon (E), Mumbai - 400 065 (India) 1 ICAER - 2013 Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula 10-12 May 13
  2. 2. Contents • Introduction • Model and methodology • Populating „Scores‟ and „Weights‟ • Results – Dimensional Index and SES Index • Sensitivity analysis • Conclusion 2 ICAER - 2013 Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula 10-12 May 13
  3. 3. Introduction • Energy is pre-requisite for development • Energy security and multidimensional issue sustainability is a complex • Sufficient supply, clean energy, affordable cost • Sustainability in entire transformation, demand energy chain: supply, 3 ICAER - 2013 Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula 10-12 May 13
  4. 4. Aim • To design a multi-criteria analysis framework for comparative assessment of SES using quantitative indicators and to assess the SES of different energy sources at household level in India 4 ICAER - 2013 Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula 10-12 May 13
  5. 5. SES defined • We define „Sustainable Energy Security‟ (SES) as “provisioning of uninterrupted energy services in an affordable, equitable, efficient and environmentally benign manner”. • Four dimensions – Acceptability, Efficiency Availability, Affordability, 5 ICAER - 2013 Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula 10-12 May 13
  6. 6. Model Code Energy Source, E(k) C Coal/coke/charcoal FW Firewood and chips DC Dung cake LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas K Kerosene L Electricity 6 ICAER - 2013 Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula 10-12 May 13
  7. 7. Indicators Dimension Efficiency ICAER - 2013 AVL2 Average qty of energy (includes cooking and lighting) consumed per month per capita Qty of energy * energy content per unit of energy source Unit * (MJ/unit) = MJ AFF1 Monthly capital cost of end use device for cooking a Capital cost of cook stove/Life of stove Rs/month Cost of fuel purchase per month for meeting requirement of cooking a Average unit price of energy consumed per month} *Specific fuel consumption * cooking work reqd per HH per month Rs per HH per month ACP1 CO emissions from end use device for cooking CO emissions from cook stove using ___ energy source mg/m3 ACP2 Environmental Acceptability % of HH using ___as primary energy source AFF2 Affordability Indicator AVL1 Physical Availability (Access and consumption) Name Components PM emissions from end use device for cooking PM emissions from cook stove using ___ energy source mg/mg3 EFF Efficiency of end use device for cooking b (Energy output/energy input) * 100 % 80 % weight: cook/water heating 20 % weight: lighting Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula Unit % 7 10-12 May 13
  8. 8. Decision matrix 8 ICAER - 2013 Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula 10-12 May 13
  9. 9. Methodology Scores • Raw Values (Separate for Rural and urban) • Min-Max scaling • Scale Inversion • Analytical Hierarchal Process (AHP) Weights Index • Dimensional Index • SES Index 9 ICAER - 2013 Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula 10-12 May 13
  10. 10. Pair-wise comparison for weights 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3 4 Access to fuel 1 2 5 6 7 Energy Consumption Capital Cost Monthly fuel Cost Access to fuel 1 1/3 3 1/3 5 5 7 Energy Consumption 3 1 5 1 7 7 9 Capital Cost 1/3 1/5 1 1/5 3 3 5 Monthly fuel Cost 3 1 5 1 7 7 9 CO emissions 0.2 0.14 0.33 0.14 1 1 3 PM emissions 0.2 0.14 0.33 0.14 1 1 3 Efficiency of end use 0.14 0.11 0.20 0.11 0.33 0.33 1 CO PM Efficiency emissions emissions of end use 10 ICAER - 2013 Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula 10-12 May 13
  11. 11. Calculations AVL 1 Raw Values Min-max scaling Inversion AVL 1 R U C 0.00 0.02 FW 1.00 0.26 DC 0.07 0.00 LPG 0.14 1.00 K 0.11 0.10 L 0.21 0.36 C FW DC LPG K L AVL 2 R U 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.88 0.27 0.14 0.03 0.95 0.05 0.09 0.08 1.00 R 0.64% 61.04% 5.04% 9.20% 7.32% 13.22% AFF 1 C 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.25 0.42 0.00 R 3.92 318.09 87.36 13.75 19.54 28.53 ACP AFF 2 1 ACP 2 R U C C 0.55 0.76 0.00 1.00 0.91 0.65 0.45 0.86 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.90 1.00 0.35 0.34 0.81 1.00 0.11 0.00 1.00 1.00 Scores ICAER - 2013 U 1.92% 14.00% 1.04% 51.60% 6.14% 19.04% AVL 2 X EFF C 0.25 0.00 0.22 0.61 0.48 1.00 U 8.12 78.03 19.08 83.63 15.31 87.36 AFF 1 C 8.33 0.00 0.00 12.50 9.72 16.67 AFF 2 R 147.83 63.75 41.82 276.09 193.32 249.56 U 180.06 197.96 140.74 273.03 247.26 302.21 Dimens ion Weights AVL 47.06% AFF 41.01% ACP EFF 8.82% 3.11% ACP 1 C 42 23 21 4 8 0 ACP 2 C 0.02 1.8 13 0.01 0.02 0 EFF C 23.2% 15.7% 11.1% 60.4% 50.4% 71.3% Compo nent Weights AVL 1 0.132 AVL 2 0.338 AFF 1 0.072 AFF 2 0.338 ACP 1 0.044 ACP 2 0.044 EFF 0.031 Weights Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula = Index 11 10-12 May 13
  12. 12. Results - DI and SES Index 12 ICAER - 2013 Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula 10-12 May 13
  13. 13. Sensitivity to weights Scenarios 1-6: Variation (+/- 5 %) in weights allotted to AVL and AFF dimensions SES Index of energy sources for different scenarios for rural and urban India 13 ICAER - 2013 Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula 10-12 May 13
  14. 14. Conclusion • The multi-criteria analysis framework has been applied to evaluate the SES Index at the household level in rural and urban India separately. • Results: – – Rural - „Firewood and chips‟ has the highest rank followed by Dung Cake and Kerosene in rural areas, while LPG has the lowest rank. Urban - Ranking of energy sources: Firewood, LPG, Electricity, Dung Cake, Coal and Kerosene. • Rankings are mostly insensitive to (+/-5%) variation in weights allotted to indicators. • If India wants to achieve its goal of SES - Careful attention to promote the use of more „Efficient‟ and „Environmentally Acceptable‟ energy sources such as LPG and Electricity to ensure higher „Availability‟ in the face of their lower „Affordability‟. 14 ICAER - 2013 Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula 10-12 May 13
  15. 15. Thank You 15 ICAER - 2013 Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula 10-12 May 13

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