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Esa_2017

  1. 1. EXTREME WEATHER EVENT IMPACTS ON THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PHENOLOGICAL SYNCHRONY OF PLANTS AND POLLINATORS IGNASI BARTOMEUS PHENOLOGY IN A COMMUNITY CONTEXT nacho.bartomeus@gmail.com 
 @ibartomeus
  2. 2. WHAT WE KNOW Bartomeus, et al. (2011) PNAS CLIMATE CHANGE -> TIMING OF EVENTS Year DaysfromJanuary1
  3. 3. WHAT WE KNOW Bartomeus, et al. (2011) PNAS CLIMATE CHANGE -> TIMING OF EVENTS Year DaysfromJanuary1 { Advance in the last 40 years { ~10 days of advance on average
  4. 4. WHAT WE KNOW Bartomeus, et al. (2011) PNAS CLIMATE CHANGE -> TIMING OF EVENTS
  5. 5. WHAT WE KNOW Bartomeus, et al. (2011) PNAS CLIMATE CHANGE -> TIMING OF EVENTS
  6. 6. BIODIVERSITY MAY BUFFER THIS CHANGES Bartomeus, et al. (2013) Ecology Letters WHAT WE KNOW
  7. 7. BIODIVERSITY MAY BUFFER THIS CHANGES Bartomeus, et al. (2013) Ecology Letters baseline asynchrony stability WHAT WE KNOW
  8. 8. BIODIVERSITY MAY BUFFER THIS CHANGES Bartomeus, et al. (2013) Ecology Letters baseline asynchrony stability WHAT WE KNOW
  9. 9. PHENOLOGICAL CHANGES MAY BE ONLY REWIRING COMMUNITIES
  10. 10. PHENOLOGICAL CHANGES MAY BE ONLY REWIRING COMMUNITIES
  11. 11. WHAT WE DON’T KNOW
  12. 12. WHAT WE DON’T KNOW
  13. 13. WHAT WE DON’T KNOW Fitness?
  14. 14. WHAT WE DON’T KNOW Alternative resources (Meiners et al 2017) Move (Steffan-Dewenter and Schiele 2004; 74%) Fitness? Use reserves (Bosch et al. 2010)
  15. 15. METHODS LONG TERM OBSERVATIONS: But so far 3 years… 16 forest “islands”
  16. 16. DATA This is 10th of February
  17. 17. DATA This is 8th of January! This is 10th of February
  18. 18. DATA This is 8th of January! This is 10th of February
  19. 19. 1) SYNCHRONY IS NOT PERFECT, BUT IS NOT BROKEN
  20. 20. 1) SYNCHRONY IS NOT PERFECT, BUT IS NOT BROKEN
  21. 21. HOW POLLINATOR ABUNDANCE CHANGED? 2015 2016 2017 Pollinatorsdensity b a ab
  22. 22. HOW VISITATION RATE CHANGE? 2015 2016 2017 meanvisitationrate b a ab
  23. 23. 2) POLLINATORS RESPONSES AND PLANT VISITATION RATES SUFFER.
  24. 24. Multiplex networks WHY?
  25. 25. Pollinators Plants 2015 2016 Pollinators Plants
  26. 26. Flavipanurgus venustus 2015 2016 2017 Abundance full overlapfull overlap
  27. 27. Bombus terrestris Flavipanurgus venustus 2015 2016 2017 Abundance turnover 10% 7% full overlap
  28. 28. Bombus terrestris Flavipanurgus venustus Xylocopa cantabrita 2015 2016 2017 Abundance full overlap turnover 10% 7% 37% 28%
  29. 29. 3) SPECIES INTERACTIONS ARE PLASTIC, BUT IS HARD TO PREDICT ITS CONSEQUENCES
  30. 30. 201520162017 15 Feb 1 Jun WHAT ABOUT SPACE?
  31. 31. 201520162017 15 Feb 1 Jun WHAT ABOUT SPACE? 16 days difference between extreme sites
  32. 32. 201520162017 15 Feb 1 Jun 50 days difference between extreme sites
  33. 33. 201520162017 15 Feb 1 Jun 15 days difference between extreme sites
  34. 34. Year 2015 2016 2017 sd across sites 3.75 11.08 3.84 heterogeneity of responses as insurance?
  35. 35. 4) IN EXTREME YEARS, VARIABILITY IN SPACE INCREASES.
  36. 36. Phenology
  37. 37. TAKE HOME MESSAGE GLOBAL CHANGE
  38. 38. TAKE HOME MESSAGE GLOBAL CHANGE Homeostasis
  39. 39. TAKE HOME MESSAGE GLOBAL CHANGE
  40. 40. NEXT? 2018 2019 2020 2021? 2022? 2023?
  41. 41. BARTOMEUS LAB: THANKS: nacho.bartomeus@gmail.com 
 @ibartomeus

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