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Who will be tomorrows tourist? Dr Ian Yeoman Victoria University of Wellington New Zealand
Who will be tomorrows tourist? <ul><li>How the world is changing </li></ul><ul><li>What does this mean for the future tour...
Who will be tomorrows tourist?
Who will be tomorrows tourist? State of the art gym including  ‘ two swim in place wave pools’ It’s such a stressful place...
Who will be tomorrows tourist? To get around, you slide around  (or use the pole) Employees can eat all they want for  fre...
Who will be tomorrows tourist? Private cabins on each floor where employees can attend to personal affairs More stress,  I...
So, where will you be going on holiday in 2050?
The World in 2050 Resources Wealth Technology
World Wealth Dadush & Stancil 2010 Average Annual GDP Growth  Real GDP in 2050 at 2005 US $ Prices China 5.6 46265 USA 2.1...
World Wealth Dadush & Stancil 2010 Average Annual GDP Growth  Real GDP in 2050 at 2005 US $ Prices China 5.6 46265 USA 2.1...
World Population Forecasts World Developed Countries  Less Developed Countries Population (millions) 1950 2529 812 1717 20...
World Population Forecasts World Developed Countries  Less Developed Countries Population (millions) 1950 2529 812 1717 20...
Net Gen by Population Source: UN 2009
Net Gen by Population Source: UN 2009
Technology
Technology <ul><li>2012:  Space Tourism </li></ul><ul><li>2014:  Intelligent Cars </li></ul><ul><li>2015:  Telemedicine   ...
Resources Hawksworth (2006)  Growth  (% pa except final column) GDP Primary  Energy  Non Fossil  Fuels Carbon Emission:  A...
Risk Financial Crisis  and Depression Geopolitical   Breakdown Protectionism Climate   Change
Who will be tomorrows tourist? Society of plenty Scarcity of resources
Fluid identity
Educated, Multi Cultured and Knowledgeable
Sexuality  Walters observes that feminism is about choice and empowerment. Therefore as a  consequence, Playboy has become...
Education, Feminism & Identity
The Social Technographics  ™  Ladder Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell.  By ex...
The Social Technographics  ™  Ladder Groups include people participating in at least  one of the activities monthly. Taken...
The Social Technographics  ™  Ladder Groups include people participating in at least  one of the activities monthly. Taken...
The Social Technographics  ™  Ladder Groups include people participating in at least  one of the activities monthly. Taken...
The Social Technographics  ™  Ladder Groups include people participating in at least  one of the activities monthly. Taken...
The Social Technographics  ™  Ladder Groups include people participating in at least  one of the activities monthly. Taken...
The Social Technographics  ™  Ladder Groups include people participating in at least  one of the activities monthly. Taken...
The Social Technographics  ™  Ladder %
The Social Technographics  ™  Ladder
The Social Technographics  ™  Ladder
Net Gen Source: Grown Up Digital 2009
<ul><li>In Japan 30% of online travel agents report 30% of hotel bookings coming via mobile phones on the day of arrival (...
 
Terminator Salvation …….
Eight Net Gen Norms <ul><li>They want freedom in everything they do, from freedom of choice to freedom of expression </li>...
Less rigid society….
Fear of loss
Maturity
Who will be tomorrows tourist? Flatters & Wilmott 2009
Extreme Experience Seeking
Discretionary Thrift
Source: Japan Travel Bureau
INSPERIENCE ECONOMY Ultimate Outdoor Theatre Source: Trend Hunter INSPERIENCE ECONOMY  represents consumers' desire to bri...
 
The Rise of Mercurial Consumption
Simplicity Paul Flatters – Trajectory Group Research by the Trajectory Group (Flatters & Wilmott 2009)  highlights that af...
The Authentic Tourist <ul><li>Ethical  </li></ul><ul><li>Natural </li></ul><ul><li>Honest </li></ul><ul><li>Simple </li></...
STORY   INGREDIENTS Swiss Netgrannies equal story
In praise of slowness
Early Life:  Growth and Development Adult  Maintaining highest  possible level of function Disability threshold Older Age ...
Trust, safety and supply
Conclusion:  What’s your identity? Is it a fluid one or…. <ul><li>Consumer volatility, paradox of choice and choice manage...
Conclusion: Is it a simple identity? <ul><li>Slowdown, halting and reserving of an identity </li></ul><ul><li>Experiences ...
Tomorrows Tourist <ul><li>Dr Ian Yeoman </li></ul><ul><li>Victoria University of Wellington </li></ul><ul><li>PO Box 600 <...
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Who Will Be The Future Tourist China

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Who will be tomorrows tourist? Presentation to the International Youth Hostel Association, China, June 2010

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Who Will Be The Future Tourist China

  1. 1. Who will be tomorrows tourist? Dr Ian Yeoman Victoria University of Wellington New Zealand
  2. 2. Who will be tomorrows tourist? <ul><li>How the world is changing </li></ul><ul><li>What does this mean for the future tourist by attitudes, beliefs and actions </li></ul><ul><li>Write down a question you would like to ask about the future? </li></ul><ul><li>Turn to your neighbour and discuss why you want to ask that question? </li></ul><ul><li>……… Any changes? </li></ul>
  3. 3. Who will be tomorrows tourist?
  4. 4. Who will be tomorrows tourist? State of the art gym including ‘ two swim in place wave pools’ It’s such a stressful place to work you can escape to the stress capsule
  5. 5. Who will be tomorrows tourist? To get around, you slide around (or use the pole) Employees can eat all they want for free from a vast choice of food and drink
  6. 6. Who will be tomorrows tourist? Private cabins on each floor where employees can attend to personal affairs More stress, I’ll just find a masseur
  7. 7. So, where will you be going on holiday in 2050?
  8. 8. The World in 2050 Resources Wealth Technology
  9. 9. World Wealth Dadush & Stancil 2010 Average Annual GDP Growth Real GDP in 2050 at 2005 US $ Prices China 5.6 46265 USA 2.1 38646 India 5.9 15384 Japan 1.1 6216 Brazil 4.1 6020 Mexico 4.3 5709 United Kingdom 2.1 4997 Germany 1.4 4535 France 2.1 4528 Russia 3.3 4297 Turkey 4.4 3536 Canada 2.6 3154 Indonesia 4.8 2975 Korea 2.5 2818 Italy 1.3 2580 Saudi Arabia 4.8 2419 Australia 2.9 2257 South Africa 4.3 1919 Argentina 4.1 1267
  10. 10. World Wealth Dadush & Stancil 2010 Average Annual GDP Growth Real GDP in 2050 at 2005 US $ Prices China 5.6 46265 USA 2.1 38646 India 5.9 15384 Japan 1.1 6216 Brazil 4.1 6020 Mexico 4.3 5709 United Kingdom 2.1 4997 Germany 1.4 4535 France 2.1 4528 Russia 3.3 4297 Turkey 4.4 3536 Canada 2.6 3154 Indonesia 4.8 2975 Korea 2.5 2818 Italy 1.3 2580 Saudi Arabia 4.8 2419 Australia 2.9 2257 South Africa 4.3 1919 Argentina 4.1 1267
  11. 11. World Population Forecasts World Developed Countries Less Developed Countries Population (millions) 1950 2529 812 1717 2008 6829 1233 3014 2050 9150 1275 5596 Total Fertility Rate (per woman) 1950 5 2.8 6.2 2008 2.56 1.64 2.73 2050 2.02 1.8 2.05 Life Expectancy at Birth (Years) 1950 46.6 66.1 41.1 2008 67.6 77.1 65.6 2050 75.5 82.8 74.3 % of Total Population 1950 100 32.1 67.9 2008 100 18.1 81.9 2050 100 13.9 86.1 Median Age 1950 24 29 21.6 2008 29.1 39.7 26.8 2050 38.4 45.6 37.2
  12. 12. World Population Forecasts World Developed Countries Less Developed Countries Population (millions) 1950 2529 812 1717 2008 6829 1233 3014 2050 9150 1275 5596 Total Fertility Rate (per woman) 1950 5 2.8 6.2 2008 2.56 1.64 2.73 2050 2.02 1.8 2.05 Life Expectancy at Birth (Years) 1950 46.6 66.1 41.1 2008 67.6 77.1 65.6 2050 75.5 82.8 74.3 Median Age 1950 24 29 21.6 2008 29.1 39.7 26.8 2050 38.4 45.6 37.2
  13. 13. Net Gen by Population Source: UN 2009
  14. 14. Net Gen by Population Source: UN 2009
  15. 15. Technology
  16. 16. Technology <ul><li>2012: Space Tourism </li></ul><ul><li>2014: Intelligent Cars </li></ul><ul><li>2015: Telemedicine </li></ul><ul><li>2020: Thought Power </li></ul><ul><li>2022: Artificial Intelligence </li></ul><ul><li>2022: Smart Robots </li></ul><ul><li>2050: The robots go on holiday as singularity has arrived </li></ul>
  17. 17. Resources Hawksworth (2006) Growth (% pa except final column) GDP Primary Energy Non Fossil Fuels Carbon Emission: Annual Average Growth Carbon Emissions: Cumulative Growth to 2050 (% Change) Scorched Earth 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.6 233 Baseline Scenario 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 112 Greener Fuel Mix 3.2 1.6 3.6 1.1 64 Constrained Growth 2.6 1 1 1 61 Green Growth 3.2 0.6 2.5 0.1 4 Green Growth + CCS 3.2 0.6 2.5 -0.4 -17
  18. 18. Risk Financial Crisis and Depression Geopolitical Breakdown Protectionism Climate Change
  19. 19.
  20. 20. Who will be tomorrows tourist? Society of plenty Scarcity of resources
  21. 21. Fluid identity
  22. 22. Educated, Multi Cultured and Knowledgeable
  23. 23. Sexuality Walters observes that feminism is about choice and empowerment. Therefore as a consequence, Playboy has become a mainstream brand which decorates pencil cases and erasers of young girls who know there is something naughty in the brand but are encouraged to buy into its cheeky marketable sexuality. The Girls of Playboy Mansion is accepted as family viewing, in which we aspire to be Holly, Bridget or Kendra www.natashawalter.com
  24. 24. Education, Feminism & Identity
  25. 25. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell. By examining how they are represented in any subgroup, strategists can determine which sorts of strategies make sense to reach their customers. Creators Collectors Critics Joiners Spectators Inactives
  26. 26. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder Groups include people participating in at least one of the activities monthly. Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell. By examining how they are represented in any subgroup, strategists can determine which sorts of strategies make sense to reach their customers. Publish a blog Publish your own Web pages Upload video you created Upload audio/music you created Write articles or stories and post them Post ratings/reviews of products/services Comment on someone else’s blog Contribute to online forums Contribute to/edit articles in a wiki Use RSS feeds Add “tags” to Web pages or photos “ Vote” for Web sites online Maintain profile on a social networking site Visit social networking sites Read blogs Watch video from other users Listen to podcasts Read online forums Read customer ratings/reviews None of the above Creators Collectors Critics Joiners Spectators Inactives
  27. 27. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder Groups include people participating in at least one of the activities monthly. Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell. By examining how they are represented in any subgroup, strategists can determine which sorts of strategies make sense to reach their customers. Publish a blog Publish your own Web pages Upload video you created Upload audio/music you created Write articles or stories and post them Post ratings/reviews of products/services Comment on someone else’s blog Contribute to online forums Contribute to/edit articles in a wiki Use RSS feeds Add “tags” to Web pages or photos “ Vote” for Web sites online Maintain profile on a social networking site Visit social networking sites Read blogs Watch video from other users Listen to podcasts Read online forums Read customer ratings/reviews None of the above Creators Collectors Critics Joiners Spectators Inactives
  28. 28. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder Groups include people participating in at least one of the activities monthly. Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell. By examining how they are represented in any subgroup, strategists can determine which sorts of strategies make sense to reach their customers. Publish a blog Publish your own Web pages Upload video you created Upload audio/music you created Write articles or stories and post them Post ratings/reviews of products/services Comment on someone else’s blog Contribute to online forums Contribute to/edit articles in a wiki Use RSS feeds Add “tags” to Web pages or photos “ Vote” for Web sites online Maintain profile on a social networking site Visit social networking sites Read blogs Watch video from other users Listen to podcasts Read online forums Read customer ratings/reviews None of the above Creators Collectors Critics Joiners Spectators Inactives None of the above
  29. 29. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder Groups include people participating in at least one of the activities monthly. Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell. By examining how they are represented in any subgroup, strategists can determine which sorts of strategies make sense to reach their customers. Publish a blog Publish your own Web pages Upload video you created Upload audio/music you created Write articles or stories and post them Post ratings/reviews of products/services Comment on someone else’s blog Contribute to online forums Contribute to/edit articles in a wiki Use RSS feeds Add “tags” to Web pages or photos “ Vote” for Web sites online Maintain profile on a social networking site Visit social networking sites Read blogs Watch video from other users Listen to podcasts Read online forums Read customer ratings/reviews None of the above Creators Collectors Critics Joiners Spectators Inactives
  30. 30. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder Groups include people participating in at least one of the activities monthly. Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell. By examining how they are represented in any subgroup, strategists can determine which sorts of strategies make sense to reach their customers. Publish a blog Publish your own Web pages Upload video you created Upload audio/music you created Write articles or stories and post them Post ratings/reviews of products/services Comment on someone else’s blog Contribute to online forums Contribute to/edit articles in a wiki Use RSS feeds Add “tags” to Web pages or photos “ Vote” for Web sites online Maintain profile on a social networking site Visit social networking sites Read blogs Watch video from other users Listen to podcasts Read online forums Read customer ratings/reviews None of the above Creators Collectors Critics Joiners Spectators Inactives
  31. 31. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder Groups include people participating in at least one of the activities monthly. Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell. By examining how they are represented in any subgroup, strategists can determine which sorts of strategies make sense to reach their customers. Publish a blog Publish your own Web pages Upload video you created Upload audio/music you created Write articles or stories and post them Post ratings/reviews of products/services Comment on someone else’s blog Contribute to online forums Contribute to/edit articles in a wiki Use RSS feeds Add “tags” to Web pages or photos “ Vote” for Web sites online Maintain profile on a social networking site Visit social networking sites Read blogs Watch video from other users Listen to podcasts Read online forums Read customer ratings/reviews None of the above Creators Collectors Critics Joiners Spectators Inactives
  32. 32. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder %
  33. 33. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder
  34. 34. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder
  35. 35. Net Gen Source: Grown Up Digital 2009
  36. 36. <ul><li>In Japan 30% of online travel agents report 30% of hotel bookings coming via mobile phones on the day of arrival (Hatton 2009) </li></ul>Augmented audio and visual recognition technology means that a smartphone with a camera can recognise the environment and provide information
  37. 38. Terminator Salvation …….
  38. 39. Eight Net Gen Norms <ul><li>They want freedom in everything they do, from freedom of choice to freedom of expression </li></ul><ul><li>They love to customise, personalise </li></ul><ul><li>They are the new scrutinizers </li></ul><ul><li>They look for corporate integrity and openness when deciding what to buy and where to work </li></ul><ul><li>The Net Gen wants entertainment and play in their work, education, and social life </li></ul><ul><li>They are the collaboration and relationship generation </li></ul><ul><li>The Net Gen has a need for speed – and not just in video games </li></ul><ul><li>They are the innovators </li></ul>
  39. 40. Less rigid society….
  40. 41. Fear of loss
  41. 42. Maturity
  42. 43.
  43. 44. Who will be tomorrows tourist? Flatters & Wilmott 2009
  44. 45. Extreme Experience Seeking
  45. 46. Discretionary Thrift
  46. 47. Source: Japan Travel Bureau
  47. 48. INSPERIENCE ECONOMY Ultimate Outdoor Theatre Source: Trend Hunter INSPERIENCE ECONOMY represents consumers' desire to bring top-level experiences into their domestic domain.&quot; Key words “ Creating comfortable space” “ Fully equipped” “ Not venturing out because we have it at home” “ The best” The Cal Spas Outdoor Theatre , at US $30,000 comes with 63-inch LCD HDTV touting surround sound, DVD/CD player… five-burner BBQ grill, a wet bar, weatherproof recliners with cup holders
  48. 50. The Rise of Mercurial Consumption
  49. 51. Simplicity Paul Flatters – Trajectory Group Research by the Trajectory Group (Flatters & Wilmott 2009) highlights that affluent consumers have revealed mounting dissatisfaction with excessive consumption. Many desire a wholesome and less wasteful life. As such, there is a desire to get back to nature, something that is tranquil, basic, rooted, human and simple (Yeoman 2008). As a consequence, the desire for more authentic and simple luxury experiences accelerates. Yeoman 2010
  50. 52. The Authentic Tourist <ul><li>Ethical </li></ul><ul><li>Natural </li></ul><ul><li>Honest </li></ul><ul><li>Simple </li></ul><ul><li>Beautiful </li></ul><ul><li>Rooted </li></ul><ul><li>Human </li></ul>
  51. 53. STORY INGREDIENTS Swiss Netgrannies equal story
  52. 54. In praise of slowness
  53. 55. Early Life: Growth and Development Adult Maintaining highest possible level of function Disability threshold Older Age Maintaining independence and Preventing disability Range of functions in individuals Age Functionality of capacity Rehabilitation and ensuring the quality of life Source: Yeoman 2010 Demography and life course
  54. 56. Trust, safety and supply
  55. 57.
  56. 58. Conclusion: What’s your identity? Is it a fluid one or…. <ul><li>Consumer volatility, paradox of choice and choice management </li></ul><ul><li>Tourists that are frivolous, promiscuous and awkward </li></ul><ul><li>A society where norms are broken </li></ul><ul><li>Broaden and expansive </li></ul><ul><li>Shared connections </li></ul><ul><li>Diluted cultures and globalisation </li></ul><ul><li>A fast, instant and networked world which is 24/7 </li></ul><ul><li>Longevity and shifting values </li></ul><ul><li>Have it all society and fear of loss </li></ul><ul><li>Heighten sense of personal freedom </li></ul><ul><li>Liberal, sexist, experimentalism within a multi cultural society </li></ul><ul><li>Inconscipicious consumption, authenticity and cultural identity </li></ul><ul><li>I don’t believe you, resistance and rebuke </li></ul>
  57. 59. Conclusion: Is it a simple identity? <ul><li>Slowdown, halting and reserving of an identity </li></ul><ul><li>Experiences that are tranquil, basic, rooted, human and simple </li></ul><ul><li>Thrift, mercurial consumption and functionality </li></ul><ul><li>Advice, networks and predictive behaviour </li></ul><ul><li>Role of authority and governance </li></ul><ul><li>Dissatisfaction with excessiveness and frivolous </li></ul>
  58. 60.
  59. 61. Tomorrows Tourist <ul><li>Dr Ian Yeoman </li></ul><ul><li>Victoria University of Wellington </li></ul><ul><li>PO Box 600 </li></ul><ul><li>Wellington 6140 </li></ul><ul><li>New Zealand </li></ul><ul><li>Tel: 00 64 4 463 5717 </li></ul><ul><li>Email: [email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Web: www.tomorrowstourist.com </li></ul>

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