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Tourism 2050:Scenarios, Change, Tourists and a Wee Bit ofScience FictonDr. Ian YeomanVictoria University of Wellington.
Future Maker• Understanding the implications of long term changewhich goes beyond the present understanding foundin the Ne...
The World in 2050ResourcesWealthTechnology
Wealth4
5Changing MarketsAverage Annual GDP Growth Real GDP in 2050 at 2005 US $ PricesChina 5.6 46265USA 2.1 38646India 5.9 15384...
6Changing MarketsAverage Annual GDP Growth Real GDP in 2050 at 2005 US $ PricesChina 5.6 46265USA 2.1 38646India 5.9 15384...
Net Gen by Population7Country% of totalpopulation under25Growth in under-25population since 1980India 52 46China 38 -9Unit...
Net Gen by Population8Country% of totalpopulation under25Growth in under-25population since 1980India 52 46China 38 -9Unit...
The generation effectSource: Understanding Society (British Household Panel Survey)/nVision/Labour Force Survey | Base: 14...
Technology
Google Glasses
Google Glasses
Scientists at the University of Washington have been developinga contact lens containing one built-in LED, powered wireles...
Resources
Source: Krumdiek et al, (2010), Becken (2010)
Future of Transport18
Sustainable Hotel DesignSustainable architecture seeks tominimize the negativeenvironmental impact of buildingsby enhancin...
Too summarise…• The world faces a scramble for resources basedupon known technologies and forecasts buthumankind is adapti...
Scenario MatrixResource Scarcity Adaptive Resource UseRivalryReciprocityScenario 4The State of China:A World of New Consum...
Manaakitanga:•How a suppressive society can only betolerated for limited time before rebellionoccurs•The importance of str...
Perfect Storm:(Health and Well Being)State of China(Individualism)An Eco Paradise(The Exclusivity)Manaakitanga:(Families)
The multigenerational, or vertical, familySource: Michael Young, The Future Foundation/nVisionThe modern family is a widen...
Democratic families : most prevalent inthe BRIC nations and South KoreaSource: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online r...
26Democratic families : most prevalent inthe BRIC nations and South KoreaSource: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online...
The psychology of family heritage : a force whichglobally underpins the perceived value of the familyunit
Exclusivity
Inconspicuous ConsumptionConsumers in theWest are movingaway fromostentatiousconsumption as away to acquire oraffirm socia...
“Please say which of the following things would be the best description of ‘luxury’ in your life.”% who selected a materia...
“Please say which of the following things would be the best description of ‘luxury’ in your life.”% who selected a materia...
“Please say which of the following things would be the best description of ‘luxury’ in your life.”% who selected a materia...
Authenti-seekingAs much as global consumers continue to embrace the convenience and reliabilitydelivered by globalised mas...
Health and Well Being
38
Early Life:Growth and DevelopmentAdultMaintaining highestpossible level of functionDisability thresholdOlder AgeMaintainin...
40
IndividualityThe UK consumer,on average changetheir hair style every18 months(Yeoman 2008)
Fluid identity
The strive for creativity :strongest in the BRIC nationsSource: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per ...
The strive for creativity :strongest in the BRIC nationsSource: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per ...
AffluenceRising income hasbeen the driving agentof modern society andis responsible forcreating thedemanding,sophisticated...
The transition of changing values
Source: Visa Global Travel Intentions Survey/nVision | Base: 11,620 respondents in 23 countries aged 18+, 2011Visa Global ...
The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and bafflingexpedients, of delays, is coming to itsclose. In its...
References– Books• Yeoman, I. (2012) 2050: Tomorrows Tourism,Channelview, Bristol.• Schanzel, H. Yeoman, I. Backer, E (201...
ContactDr. Ian YeomanVictoria University of WellingtonTel: 04 463 5717Email: ian.yeoman@vuw.ac.nzProject website: www.tour...
Scenarios for the Future of Tourism in New Zealand: 2050
Scenarios for the Future of Tourism in New Zealand: 2050
Scenarios for the Future of Tourism in New Zealand: 2050
Scenarios for the Future of Tourism in New Zealand: 2050
Scenarios for the Future of Tourism in New Zealand: 2050
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Scenarios for the Future of Tourism in New Zealand: 2050

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Scenarios about the future of tourism in New Zealand set in 2050. From the www.tourism2050.com project

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Scenarios for the Future of Tourism in New Zealand: 2050

  1. 1. Tourism 2050:Scenarios, Change, Tourists and a Wee Bit ofScience FictonDr. Ian YeomanVictoria University of Wellington.
  2. 2. Future Maker• Understanding the implications of long term changewhich goes beyond the present understanding foundin the New Zealand Tourism Strategy 2015• The construction of scenarios about the future andposition of tourism in New Zealand to 2050 in order todevelop new order, thinking and strategic directions• Funded by Ministries of Economic Development andthe Science and Innovation• Parallel project on climate change (LincolnUniversity) and aviation (Otago University)• www.tourism2050.com
  3. 3. The World in 2050ResourcesWealthTechnology
  4. 4. Wealth4
  5. 5. 5Changing MarketsAverage Annual GDP Growth Real GDP in 2050 at 2005 US $ PricesChina 5.6 46265USA 2.1 38646India 5.9 15384Japan 1.1 6216Brazil 4.1 6020Mexico 4.3 5709United Kingdom 2.1 4997Germany 1.4 4535France 2.1 4528Russia 3.3 4297Turkey 4.4 3536Canada 2.6 3154Indonesia 4.8 2975Korea 2.5 2818Italy 1.3 2580Saudi Arabia 4.8 2419Australia 2.9 2257South Africa 4.3 1919Argentina 4.1 1267Dadush & Stancil 2010
  6. 6. 6Changing MarketsAverage Annual GDP Growth Real GDP in 2050 at 2005 US $ PricesChina 5.6 46265USA 2.1 38646India 5.9 15384Japan 1.1 6216Brazil 4.1 6020Mexico 4.3 5709United Kingdom 2.1 4997Germany 1.4 4535France 2.1 4528Russia 3.3 4297Turkey 4.4 3536Canada 2.6 3154Indonesia 4.8 2975Korea 2.5 2818Italy 1.3 2580Saudi Arabia 4.8 2419Australia 2.9 2257South Africa 4.3 1919Argentina 4.1 1267Dadush & Stancil 2010
  7. 7. Net Gen by Population7Country% of totalpopulation under25Growth in under-25population since 1980India 52 46China 38 -9United States 35 11Brazil 47 22Mexico 49 14Russia 32 -15Japan 25 -27Germany 26 -20France 31 -7UK 31 -10Spain 27 -27Canada 31 -4Source: UN 2009
  8. 8. Net Gen by Population8Country% of totalpopulation under25Growth in under-25population since 1980India 52 46China 38 -9United States 35 11Brazil 47 22Mexico 49 14Russia 32 -15Japan 25 -27Germany 26 -20France 31 -7UK 31 -10Spain 27 -27Canada 31 -4Source: UN 2009
  9. 9. The generation effectSource: Understanding Society (British Household Panel Survey)/nVision/Labour Force Survey | Base: 14,103 respondents aged 16+, GB, 2009Year homeowners bought their current home, byage of head of householdBy the early 10s, a third of 16-17s and nearly a fifth of18-24s are unemployed. The overall rate is around 8%.ILO unemployment ratesby age, seasonally adjusted ratesAs the majority of over-50s became homeowners before2001, they have retained much of the equity growththey enjoyed due to the boom.The great polarisation of wealth
  10. 10. Technology
  11. 11. Google Glasses
  12. 12. Google Glasses
  13. 13. Scientists at the University of Washington have been developinga contact lens containing one built-in LED, powered wirelessly withradio frequency waves, facial recognition systems etc.
  14. 14. Resources
  15. 15. Source: Krumdiek et al, (2010), Becken (2010)
  16. 16. Future of Transport18
  17. 17. Sustainable Hotel DesignSustainable architecture seeks tominimize the negativeenvironmental impact of buildingsby enhancing efficiency andmoderation in the use of materials,energy, and development space.19Photo: Inter Continental Songjiang Resort
  18. 18. Too summarise…• The world faces a scramble for resources basedupon known technologies and forecasts buthumankind is adaptive• More older and less young people• Shifting wealth patterns• Future technologies are the realm of science fiction……..But is depends on how we behave, is it a co-operative or rivalries’ world
  19. 19. Scenario MatrixResource Scarcity Adaptive Resource UseRivalryReciprocityScenario 4The State of China:A World of New Consumers with a Fluid IdentityScenario 3A Perfect Storm:The Health TouristScenario 2An Eco Paradise:A World of Collective IndividualismSpectrumofSocietalBehaviorsResource UseScenario 1Manaakitanga:Welcome to New Zealand
  20. 20. Manaakitanga:•How a suppressive society can only betolerated for limited time before rebellionoccurs•The importance of strong governance•Shifting geo politics•Protecting indigenous culture and nationalidentity•Sustainability•Extended families, VFR and the concept ofwhanauState of China•A capitalist society based upon increasedwealth, prosperity and competition•Technological innovation such as 3D printingand claytronics change the supply chain•New Zealand is a competitive market placeand strong brand•The beginnings of hypersonic travel•Tourist consumption based upon a fluididentityPerfect Storm:•World economic morbidity andineffective government•New Zealand outlook is aboutprotecting itself from the volatility of theworld•The role of tourism is positioned as ahealth driver because of ageingpopulations•Frugality, simplicity and mercurialconsumptionAn Eco Paradise:.•The worlds middle classes are beingsqueezed as resources become scarce•Priority and incentive for resourcesubstitution•The kiwi psyche is green•New Zealand economy is strongbecause of natural resources andspecialisation•Exclusivity and tourism access not aright
  21. 21. Perfect Storm:(Health and Well Being)State of China(Individualism)An Eco Paradise(The Exclusivity)Manaakitanga:(Families)
  22. 22. The multigenerational, or vertical, familySource: Michael Young, The Future Foundation/nVisionThe modern family is a widening spread of connections up and downthe ages. And the contraction of the sibling population is to someextent compensated by the swell in the number of step-relatives,especially in North America and Western Europe.Having found that ever more customers were wishing toholiday with both children and grandparents together,Eurocamp began waiving the adult fee for grandparents whoshared the same accommodation as the rest of their family.
  23. 23. Democratic families : most prevalent inthe BRIC nations and South KoreaSource: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per country (**GB is 5000) aged 16-64 (*China is 16-54), 2010“In my family children have a say in important family spending decisions”
  24. 24. 26Democratic families : most prevalent inthe BRIC nations and South KoreaSource: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per country (**GB is 5000) aged 16-64 (*China is 16-54), 2010“In my family children have a say in important family spending decisions”
  25. 25. The psychology of family heritage : a force whichglobally underpins the perceived value of the familyunit
  26. 26. Exclusivity
  27. 27. Inconspicuous ConsumptionConsumers in theWest are movingaway fromostentatiousconsumption as away to acquire oraffirm social status.In turn, quietlyexpressed savoir-vivre is becoming thedefault setting.
  28. 28. “Please say which of the following things would be the best description of ‘luxury’ in your life.”% who selected a materialistic, experiential or time option (see notes for definitions).Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2011Differences in the meaning of luxury for different ages
  29. 29. “Please say which of the following things would be the best description of ‘luxury’ in your life.”% who selected a materialistic, experiential or time option (see notes for definitions).Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2011Differences in the meaning of luxury for different ages
  30. 30. “Please say which of the following things would be the best description of ‘luxury’ in your life.”% who selected a materialistic, experiential or time option (see notes for definitions).Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2011Differences in the meaning of luxury for different ages
  31. 31. Authenti-seekingAs much as global consumers continue to embrace the convenience and reliabilitydelivered by globalised mass production, they also aspire to an alternative to theperceived homogenisation of contemporary culture, food and leisure experiences.The consumer’s search for the “real” - which we define as Authenti-seeking -has a number of implications for consumer-facing sectors : from the way companiespackage and market their offers to how they interact with their customer base.
  32. 32. Health and Well Being
  33. 33. 38
  34. 34. Early Life:Growth and DevelopmentAdultMaintaining highestpossible level of functionDisability thresholdOlder AgeMaintaining independence andPreventing disabilityRange of functionsin individualsAgeFunctionalityofcapacityRehabilitation and ensuringthe quality of lifeMaintaining Functional Capacity Over the Courseof Life
  35. 35. 40
  36. 36. IndividualityThe UK consumer,on average changetheir hair style every18 months(Yeoman 2008)
  37. 37. Fluid identity
  38. 38. The strive for creativity :strongest in the BRIC nationsSource: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per country aged 16-64 (*China is 16-54), 2010“Some of the things people have told us they are concerned about are listed here. Please saywhich of the following items you personally are concerned about. Being a creative person”.% who are concerned, by country
  39. 39. The strive for creativity :strongest in the BRIC nationsSource: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per country aged 16-64 (*China is 16-54), 2010“Some of the things people have told us they are concerned about are listed here. Please saywhich of the following items you personally are concerned about. Being a creative person”.% who are concerned, by country
  40. 40. AffluenceRising income hasbeen the driving agentof modern society andis responsible forcreating thedemanding,sophisticated andwell-informedconsumer werecognise today.Wealth is the coredriver for thepropensity to travel inall markets
  41. 41. The transition of changing values
  42. 42. Source: Visa Global Travel Intentions Survey/nVision | Base: 11,620 respondents in 23 countries aged 18+, 2011Visa Global Survey: Key influences on the choiceof travel destination, global averageMean score on a five point scale where 5 = will influence my decision strongly and 1 = will notinfluence my decision at all | See notes for details of countries covered and methodology
  43. 43. The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and bafflingexpedients, of delays, is coming to itsclose. In its place we are entering aperiod of consequences…Winston Churchill 1936or has it
  44. 44. References– Books• Yeoman, I. (2012) 2050: Tomorrows Tourism,Channelview, Bristol.• Schanzel, H. Yeoman, I. Backer, E (2012)Family Tourism, Channelview, Bristol.• Yeoman, I et al (2011) Tourism andDemography. Goodfellows, Oxford.• Yeoman, I & Future Foundation (2013) 2040:Tomorrows Tourist. Forthcoming– Websites.• www.tomorrowstourist.com• www.tourism2050.com– Data• www.futurefoundation.net
  45. 45. ContactDr. Ian YeomanVictoria University of WellingtonTel: 04 463 5717Email: ian.yeoman@vuw.ac.nzProject website: www.tourism2050.com

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