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What can we do change What’s driving about it What s          David Smith             Chief executive  Global Futures and ...
Food for thought                            g• How to take advantage of:  –   Global competition  –   Changing populations...
Innovation                            48 Years1810                                                                    1858...
Strategies to face the future       g        1.        1 Inertia        2. Agility        3. ForesightTo reduce risk & exp...
Co-opetition                             p• Compete hard = collaborate hard• Reconfigure around client & market  needs:   ...
Co-creation Networks• Delegate innovation to outsiders.• Loncin, a Chinese motorcycle  manufacturer, sets broad  specifica...
Co-Creation Car – Fiat Mio     "a car to call your own” 15,000 people contributed design ideas        Creative Commons lic...
Open Innovation - Mash-up businessHigher levels of brainpower applied.• "two heads are better than one "   two            ...
Think Share – Think Group                               p•   Sharing•   Collaborating•   Personalising/Customising•   Re-m...
WYK2          What you know & who you know• Who do you know?         y   – How many suppliers   – How many general contact...
Crowd-in–the-Cloud• How are you getting known?• What wisdom are you sharing?• Are you:   – Blogging/vlogging   – Tweeting ...
What does this mean•   Business is not the same as before.•   Faster collaborations and partnering                        ...
If you do what youve always done, you ll get what you ve done youll get what youve         always got.     Tony Robbins, L...
WHAT WILL THEY EAT
Food, lifestyles and farming                 ,       y              g“We are beginning to realise We that the era of food ...
Eating more meat                             g• Increasing prosperity leads to a  doubling of global meat production  by t...
Artificial meat 2050• Low-tech ways are effective to increase  yields:   –   Reducing the 30-40% food waste.   –   Better ...
Aquaculture 2015 & 2025                q• Tripled in 15 years.• By 2015, aquaculture 39% of     2015  global seafood produ...
Halal food sales 2020• Halal food sales $640bn a year.• $850b b 2020  $850bn by 2020.• Roots in Middle East and Asia.• Mus...
Personalized nutrition 2028• Forces driving personalized  nutrition:    t iti   – Non-invasive biomonitoring     technolog...
SUSTAINABILITY DRIVINGINNOVATION
Adnams                  Sustainable premiumInsight:• Environmentally sustainable products                                 ...
APPLEReduced transport costs reduced CO2                  costs, Intent: • Reduced emissions during transportation. What t...
PUMAReduced resources increased profit        resources,Intent:• Reduced cardboard use by 65%• Replaced plastic shopping b...
CHANGINGCONSUMERBEHAVIOUR
What I like – Where I like – On       any screen I like                            Global Futures                         ...
Smartphones                                                   p•   50% of owners buy on their mobile.•   Up 20% over last ...
S a tp o e s opp gSmartphone shopping                      Global Futures                         & Foresight
Smartphone shopping     p        pp g    At the grocery store                           Global Futures                    ...
Convenience• Miniaturize home technology.• Aquaponics - f  fish and vegetables in  artificial ecosystem.   – The plants cl...
Convenience• 3D printer that mixes foods  and flavors to produce  something edible.   – Delivers elaborate combinations   ...
Virtual/Online Communities•       Virtual communities are not a        replacement for the traditional                    ...
ORGANISATIONAL       CHANGE
Management                      g1. There is a “right” way2. The role of the manager is to know   that “right” way3.3 To t...
Management – Leadership           balance           b l• No change  70-90% management, 10-30% leadership• Change  10-30% m...
Brand Valuation       Differences alone are not sufficient to achieve Differentiation             DIFFERENTIATION         ...
Brand Valuation   Differences alone are not sufficient to achieve Differentiation                    Leadership brands gen...
Successful leaders of change                          g                         Global Futures                            ...
Global Futures   & Foresight
“Organize” for … performance & customer       satisfaction.       satisfaction“Disorganize” for … renewal       & innovati...
VisionVISION  SO
Next                 Commercial I di id l C                            Individual CompanyEntrepreneur Resources Foresight ...
2D viewToday   Future                    Global Futures                       & Foresight
3D viewToday   Tomorrow    Future                             Global Futures                                & Foresight
3D executionManage    Lead     Envision                              Global Futures                                 & Fore...
3D leadership                               p   Manager            Leader            EntrepreneurDo you know who the entre...
Entrepreneur, Leader, Manager     p      ,       ,     g                      Manager                    Leader         En...
Indicator             Manager                             Leader                                                 L d      ...
Indicator             Manager                             Leader                                                 L d      ...
Manager             Manager                             Leader                                                 L d        ...
Leader             Manager                             Leader                                                 L d         ...
Entrepreneur               Manager                              Leader                                                    ...
Connect your entrepreneurs            y         p• Give permission• Give attention• Resource• Encourage• Collaborate acros...
Imagine itIf you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead   y           g           yThank you        +44 7932 408901  ...
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David Smith - Global Futures and Foresight Part 2

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David Smith - Global Futures and Foresight Part 2

  1. 1. What can we do change What’s driving about it What s David Smith Chief executive Global Futures and Foresight Global Futures © Global Futures and Foresight 2011 & Foresight
  2. 2. Food for thought g• How to take advantage of: – Global competition – Changing populations – Changing working patterns – Growing faith groups – Booming infrastructure demand – Increasingly powerful and mobile computing – Social applications for networked business – Virtual Vi t l world interaction/customer service/advice ld i t ti / t i / d i Global Futures & Foresight
  3. 3. Innovation 48 Years1810 1858 Global Futures Ezra Warner of Waterbury, Connecticut patented the first can opener & Foresight
  4. 4. Strategies to face the future g 1. 1 Inertia 2. Agility 3. ForesightTo reduce risk & exploit change Global Futures & Foresight
  5. 5. Co-opetition p• Compete hard = collaborate hard• Reconfigure around client & market needs: – Mix of capabilities creating a unique proposition only possible by collaboration collaboration.• Not M&A• Intended to be for now and ‘temporary’ – Could be 3 months or 3 years. Global Futures & Foresight
  6. 6. Co-creation Networks• Delegate innovation to outsiders.• Loncin, a Chinese motorcycle manufacturer, sets broad specifications for p p products and then lets suppliers work together to design the components.• Expect more co-creation. http://jianshe.com.au/_img/lx50py‐side.jpg Global Futures Source: Technology enabled trends  ‐from The McKinsey Quarterly & Foresight
  7. 7. Co-Creation Car – Fiat Mio "a car to call your own” 15,000 people contributed design ideas Creative Commons licence Global Futures & Foresight
  8. 8. Open Innovation - Mash-up businessHigher levels of brainpower applied.• "two heads are better than one " two one.Validity.• Solving the right problems is half the battle of innovation.Quicker to scale.• EG: In the Netflix/LG Electronics deal deal. – LG gets ready customers . – Netflix gets a new media platform – Something new - co-created. Global Futures http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/mar2008/id20080319_656312.htm & Foresight
  9. 9. Think Share – Think Group p• Sharing• Collaborating• Personalising/Customising• Re-mixing ( g (Mashup)p)• Creating• Playing (Along/with)• Following (Twitter lik ) F ll i (T itt like)Think co-creation – Think co-distribution co creation co distribution Global Futures & Foresight
  10. 10. WYK2 What you know & who you know• Who do you know? y – How many suppliers – How many general contacts – How many out of market people – How many customers• What do they know?• Who could you join with?• Who could you collaborate with to create a new offer? Global Futures & Foresight
  11. 11. Crowd-in–the-Cloud• How are you getting known?• What wisdom are you sharing?• Are you: – Blogging/vlogging – Tweeting – What’s your following• How many new contacts this month? y• How many re-tweets, likes do you get?• How many ideas do you get a month? Global Futures & Foresight
  12. 12. What does this mean• Business is not the same as before.• Faster collaborations and partnering partnering.• More ideas, faster.• Customer oriented projects. p j• Networked products (and services).• Innovation everywhere.• New b i N business models. d l• Continuing cost pressures. Global Futures & Foresight
  13. 13. If you do what youve always done, you ll get what you ve done youll get what youve always got. Tony Robbins, Life Coach Global Futures & Foresight
  14. 14. WHAT WILL THEY EAT
  15. 15. Food, lifestyles and farming , y g“We are beginning to realise We that the era of food surpluses has come to an end” endFinancial Times, January 2011 Global Futures & Foresight
  16. 16. Eating more meat g• Increasing prosperity leads to a doubling of global meat production by the year 2050. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)• Meat consumption in the developing world increased 17% between 2000-2010 2000 2010.• Industrial world eats twice as much meat per person. http://starglobaltribune.com/2011/low-fat-food-new-method-can-produce-low-fat-sausages-that-taste- just-as-good-as-the-original-3828 Global Futures http://www.worldwatch.org/vs2010 & Foresight
  17. 17. Artificial meat 2050• Low-tech ways are effective to increase yields: – Reducing the 30-40% food waste. – Better storage facilities and supermarkets. – Better packaging – Consumers in rich countries buy only what they need.• Wild cards: d – Artificial meat, made in giant vats. – Nanotechnology • Delivering medication to livestock. Dr Philip Thornton, a scientist Global Futures International Livestock Research Institute in Nairobi & Foresight
  18. 18. Aquaculture 2015 & 2025 q• Tripled in 15 years.• By 2015, aquaculture 39% of 2015 global seafood production. “Global aquaculture production Global will have to increase by 500% by the year 2025 to meet the projected needs of a world population of 8.5 billion people,“ ASA President Johnny Dodson http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_OORyagu8ETY/SpnryKF1AvI/AAAAAAAAAMQ/dke4pnF81lY/s400/fish-farming.jpg Global Futures http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=20742462 & Foresight
  19. 19. Halal food sales 2020• Halal food sales $640bn a year.• $850b b 2020 $850bn by 2020.• Roots in Middle East and Asia.• Muslims in Africa and Asia.• Growing Europe’s 50m Muslims.• America and Australasia are also growing. http://www.arksign.com/images/Neon%20-%20Halal.jpg Global Futures http://halalworld.org/html/images/report/Halal%20foodobserving%20growthFood%20NewsComment.pdf & Foresight
  20. 20. Personalized nutrition 2028• Forces driving personalized nutrition: t iti – Non-invasive biomonitoring technology.gy – Inexpensive genetic profiling. – Nutrigenomic knowledge – Artificial intelligence and data-mining http://www.thednawealthcreator.com/images/superstock_1098r-6105b.medium.jpg Global Futures http://food.fleishmanhillard.com/whatsinstore/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/food2028whitepaper.pdf & Foresight
  21. 21. SUSTAINABILITY DRIVINGINNOVATION
  22. 22. Adnams Sustainable premiumInsight:• Environmentally sustainable products pg s-beer_280_473948a.jp attract a price premium.What they did:• “greening” their buildings technology and greening buildings, /archive/00473/adnams brewing processes.• Reduced weight of glass in bottles. http://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/• The UK’s first carbon-neutral beer.Outcome:• Profits grow 65% to nearly £7m. (Profits have slumped through the recession) Global Futures http://www.realbusiness.co.uk/news/corporate‐governance/5420906/adnams‐boosts‐bottom‐line‐ & Foresight with‐clever‐csr.thtml
  23. 23. APPLEReduced transport costs reduced CO2 costs, Intent: • Reduced emissions during transportation. What they did: • Reducing p g packaging 40%. g g • 50% more boxes in each airline shipping container. Outcome: • Fewer CO2 emissions. • Saves one 747 flight for every 32,000 units. Global Futures http://www.apple.com/environment/complete-lifecycle/ & Foresight
  24. 24. PUMAReduced resources increased profit resources,Intent:• Reduced cardboard use by 65%• Replaced plastic shopping bags, and waste.What they did:• ‘clever little bag’Outcome:• Reduce water, energy and diesel in manufacturing by 60%.• 8,500 tons less paper consumed.• 20m mega joules of electricity saved.• In transport 500 000 litres of diesel saved 500,000 saved.• 1m litres less fuel oil saved and water conserved. Global Futures http://www.environmentalleader.com/2010/04/27/a-look-at-pumas-fuseproject-packaging/ & Foresight
  25. 25. CHANGINGCONSUMERBEHAVIOUR
  26. 26. What I like – Where I like – On any screen I like Global Futures & Foresight
  27. 27. Smartphones p• 50% of owners buy on their mobile.• Up 20% over last 9 months• 11% purchase on a weekly basis• 28% find product information p• 80% using their mobiles to shop• C Comparing pricing i i i• GPS to find stores mecommerce – when and where I like Source: 10th May 2011 http://www.edigitalresearch.com/news/item/nid/457336168 Global Futures Source: Verdict April 20th 2011 http://www.internetretailing.net/2011/04/mobile-set-to-change-the-face-of-the-high-street-as-shoppers-move-online-or-out-of-town/ & Foresight
  28. 28. S a tp o e s opp gSmartphone shopping Global Futures & Foresight
  29. 29. Smartphone shopping p pp g At the grocery store Global Futures & Foresight
  30. 30. Convenience• Miniaturize home technology.• Aquaponics - f fish and vegetables in artificial ecosystem. – The plants clean the water p – The fish nourish the plants with their waste. http://blog.casase.it/2009/08/21/biosphere-home-farm-una-fattoria-in-cucina/ Biosphere Home Farm http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/cliff-kuang/design-innovation/food-2030-printed-demand-crafted-your-diet Global Futures & Foresight
  31. 31. Convenience• 3D printer that mixes foods and flavors to produce something edible. – Delivers elaborate combinations of food. ff d – A rapid heating and cooling chamber The Cornucopia: MITs 3D Food Printer Global Futures http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/21/the-cornucopia-mits-3d-food-printer-patiently-awaits-the-futu/ & Foresight
  32. 32. Virtual/Online Communities• Virtual communities are not a replacement for the traditional traditional.• Virtual spaces - leading incubator of communities.• Participation inequality:. http://slwtf.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/kadawe4.jpg – 90% of users are lurkers – 9% of users contribute sometimes – 1% of users actively participate and are responsible for all the action p Global Futures & Foresight
  33. 33. ORGANISATIONAL CHANGE
  34. 34. Management g1. There is a “right” way2. The role of the manager is to know that “right” way3.3 To train people in the “right” way right4. To supervise people to ensure that they do it the “right” way The role of management is to ensure predictability & stability Global Futures & Foresight
  35. 35. Management – Leadership balance b l• No change 70-90% management, 10-30% leadership• Change 10-30% management 70-90% 10 30% management, 70 90% leadership ange Professor John Kotter Harvard Business School Degr of cha ree Leadership skills Global Futures & Foresight
  36. 36. Brand Valuation Differences alone are not sufficient to achieve Differentiation DIFFERENTIATION The Brand’s point of difference p ENERGY The Brand’s sense of momentum RELEVANCE How appropriate the Brand is to youPercentile ESTEEMrank How well regarded The Brand is KNOWLEDGE Intimate understanding of The Brand A PROPRIETARY PRACTICE OF Global Futures YOUNG & RUBICAM BRANDS & Foresight
  37. 37. Brand Valuation Differences alone are not sufficient to achieve Differentiation Leadership brands generate more value per pound of sale Leadership 2.5x AppleIntangible assets High earnings / high potentialare growing in 1.9x 1 9x 1.4x 14 NCE / ENEGRY)importance and RENGTH Decliningvalue High earnings / low potentialBrands are the Energized Brand STRonly assets that ATION / RELEVAN Unrealized potentialorganizations can or niche Low earnings / high potential Starbuckspermanently own,leverage and 0.7x Erodedsustain above and d Seriously challenged (DIFFERENTIAbeyond business 0.9xinfrastructure to New Unfocuseddrive economicvalue Brand STATURE (ESTEEM / KNOWLEDGE) Global Futures & Foresight A PROPRIETARY PRACTICE OF YOUNG & RUBICAM BRANDS
  38. 38. Successful leaders of change g Global Futures & Foresight
  39. 39. Global Futures & Foresight
  40. 40. “Organize” for … performance & customer satisfaction. satisfaction“Disorganize” for … renewal & innovation. Global Futures & Foresight
  41. 41. VisionVISION SO
  42. 42. Next Commercial I di id l C Individual CompanyEntrepreneur Resources Foresight Vision WhyLeader Cycles Behaviour Culture WhatManager Capability Comms Values How Global Futures Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2010 & Foresight
  43. 43. 2D viewToday Future Global Futures & Foresight
  44. 44. 3D viewToday Tomorrow Future Global Futures & Foresight
  45. 45. 3D executionManage Lead Envision Global Futures & Foresight
  46. 46. 3D leadership p Manager Leader EntrepreneurDo you know who the entrepreneurs are in your organization? What will your business challenges be in 5 years time? Global Futures & Foresight
  47. 47. Entrepreneur, Leader, Manager p , , g Manager Leader Entrepreneur • Entrepreneurs seek change and exploit it • Leaders take us into new territory • Managers drive out the value Attitudinal Profile Global Futures & Foresight
  48. 48. Indicator Manager Leader L d Entrepreneur E tEntrepreneur Resources Foresight VisionLeader Cycles Behaviour CultureManager Capability Comms Values Global Futures Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2010 & Foresight
  49. 49. Indicator Manager Leader L d Entrepreneur E tEntrepreneur Resources Foresight Vision Manager Leader Entrepreneur Entrepreneur EntrepreneurLeader Cycles Behaviour Culture Manager Leader Entrepreneur Leader LeaderManager Capability Comms Values Manager Leader Entrepreneur Manager M Manager M Global Futures Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2010 & Foresight
  50. 50. Manager Manager Leader L d Entrepreneur E tEntrepreneur Resources Foresight Vision Manager Leader Entrepreneur Entrepreneur EntrepreneurLeader Cycles Behaviour Culture Manager Leader Entrepreneur Leader LeaderManager Capability Comms Values Manager Leader Entrepreneur Manager M M Manager Global Futures Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2010 & Foresight
  51. 51. Leader Manager Leader L d Entrepreneur E tEntrepreneur Resources Foresight Vision Manager Leader Entrepreneur Entrepreneur EntrepreneurLeader Cycles Behaviour Culture Manager Leader Entrepreneur Leader LeaderManager Capability Comms Values Manager Leader Entrepreneur Manager M M Manager Global Futures Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2010 & Foresight
  52. 52. Entrepreneur Manager Leader L d Entrepreneur E tEntrepreneur Resources Foresight Vision Manager Leader Entrepreneur Entrepreneur EntrepreneurLeader Cycles Behaviour Culture Manager Leader Entrepreneur Leader LeaderManager Capability Comms Values Manager Leader Entrepreneur Manager M M Manager Global Futures Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2010 & Foresight
  53. 53. Connect your entrepreneurs y p• Give permission• Give attention• Resource• Encourage• Collaborate across boundaries• Externalise• Honour innovation Global Futures & Foresight
  54. 54. Imagine itIf you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead y g yThank you +44 7932 408901 david.smith@thegff.com www.thegff.com h ff www.linkedin.com/in/dasmith New report launched July 2011 Connect via LinkedIn or twitter  davidsmithgff Download a full copy from www.thegff.com gfftv Global Futures & Foresight

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