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The Second Half of the Chessboard...

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Talk for Griffith University MBA for Life, May 11, 2015 at South Bank Campus, Brisbane.

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The Second Half of the Chessboard...

  1. 1. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Copyright © ian fenwick. All rights reserved MBA for Life Seminar: The Second Half of the Chessboard Dr Ian Fenwick May 11, 2015 Professor of Marketing, Sasin Graduate Institute, Bangkok Professor Emeritus, Schulich School of Business, Toronto Visiting Professor of Marketing, Griffith University Founding Partner, AnyPrep LLC …why the future’s bound to be weird
  2. 2. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved I’m really not a fortune- teller. This presentation is about what we can already see around us
  3. 3. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://time.com/29910/facebook-can-identify-faces-as-well-as-you/ Story told about the inventor of chess…his ruler liked the game so much he offered the inventor anything he wanted He asked for 1 grain of rice on square 1, 2 on square 2, 4 in square 3, doubling each time All went well until square 32, which need just over 4 billion grains…that’s a large field. But then square 33 needed 2 large fields…. That’s when they did the math, and figured the last square would need more rice than ever grown in the world to date …the second half of the chessboard needs 4 billion times as much rice as the first half Exponential progressions can really get out of hand….
  4. 4. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Chessboard Data, agents, bots, algorithms Nearables, wearables, steerables & other smart things
  5. 5. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Moore’s Law: 1 square about 18 months http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Sputnik_asm.jpg a replica of Sputnik, PUBLIC DOMAIN, NASA you are here start at Sputnik (1957): now 40th square Computing power sort of doubles every 18 months or so…say we started with Sputnik
  6. 6. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_versus_Garry_Kasparov/ http://www.wired.com/2014/10/future-of-artificial-intelligence/ Big Blue 1996: wetware 4, hardware 2 1997: wetware 2½, hardware 3½
  7. 7. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watson_(computer) http://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2014/11/artificial-intelligence-singularity-theory Watson 2011: Watson (hardware) wins $1m, beats Jeopardy champion wetwares
  8. 8. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://www.forbes.com/sites/amitchowdhry/2014/03/18/facebooks-deepface-software-can- match-faces-with-97-25-accuracy/ http://sterlingcrispin.com/data-masks.html 2013: DeepFace is watching you DeepFace 97.25%, wetware 97.53% Sterling Crispin’s “Data Masks”
  9. 9. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/21emotions.htm 2014: computers recognize sentiment; can identify 21 expressions including complex or contradictory emotions “happily disgusted” “sadly angry” etc happy disgusted happily disgusted
  10. 10. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/21emotions.htm happy disgusted happily disgusted …distinguishes authentic expressions from false expressions with an accuracy rate of 85%... [vs. wetware’s] 55%
  11. 11. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved http://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/all/1 Google has built a “a general-learning algorithm that should be applicable to many other tasks,” says Koray Kavukcuoglu, a Google researcher. from Deep Mind, bought by Google 2014 for estimated $400M Uses “deep learning and… deep reinforcement learning”
  12. 12. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Part 1 Part 3 Part 2 Chessboard Data, agents, bots, algorithms
  13. 13. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved https://www.flickr.com/photos/eugeneflores/3518082842/in/photolist-4Ju9bQ-4JpUpp-4JpVkx-4JpUxF-4Ju93W-4Ju9KA-4Ju9m3-7dsumf-4Ju9uf-7doBue-mPxWAV- 5q8apy-Uicdq-4JeAbX-7mJyrF-7mNqqQ-9oBiv5-6sWqrp-6A9jsu-6mT6sJ Eugene Flores
  14. 14. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/if-you-think-big-datas-challenges-are-tough-now/ http://www.csc.com/insights/flxwd/78931-big_data_universe_beginning_to_explode Just when you figured out what a gigabyte was… 2020: 44 ZB 2013: 4.4 ZB 2007: all information < 1/3 of a zettabyte learn zettabyte= 1 billion gigabytes
  15. 15. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Internet,_nobody_knows_you%27re_a_dog#mediaviewer/File:Internet_dog.jpg "Internet dog" by Source. Licensed under Fair use via Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Internet_dog.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Internet_dog.jpg Peter Steiner 1993 …the most reproduced cartoon from The New Yorker
  16. 16. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved These are the droids you’re looking for… http://gizmodo.com/more-than-half-of- internet-traffic-is-just-bots-1491356746 2013 half the trades on Wall Street by “autonomous machines”
  17. 17. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved http://pronouncemath.blogspot.com/2013/04/muhammad-ibn-musa-al-khwarizmi.html All that data’s crunched by algorithms…which word comes from the mangled pronunciation of the name of a mathematician of 1200+ years ago…who also gave us the name ‘algebra’
  18. 18. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reservedhttp://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/apr/02/google-could-be-fined-4bn-ec-signals-legal-challenge-margrethe-vestager Want to find something? Algorithms rule search Some say algorithms fix search…certainly v few go beyond first few results
  19. 19. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Want to find something? Same search on DuckDuckGo shows fewer YouTube and greater prominence to group’s own site
  20. 20. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved http://www.mondaynote.com/2015/02/01/from-trust-in-news-to-news-profiling/ In bots and algorithms, we trust
  21. 21. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved http://www.mondaynote.com/2015/02/01/from-trust-in-news-to-news-profiling/ In bots and algorithms, we trust
  22. 22. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Want to influence elections? http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/05/12/research-in-india-suggests-google-search-results-can-influence-an-election/ Undecided voters in India Manipulated search results to increase prominence of different candidates On average shifted votes by 12.5% Among the group shown pro-Gandhi rankings, his support increased by 26.5%.
  23. 23. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Want make people happy, or sad? Social Contagion reduced exposure to friends' "positive emotional content", results in fewer positive posts And vice versa
  24. 24. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect "Streisand Estate" by Copyright (C) 2002 Kenneth & Gabrielle Adelman, California Coastal Records Project, www.californiacoastline.org. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons - Want to hide something? Before lawsuit: "Image 3850" 6 downloads In the month after? more than 420,000 The Streisland Effect Don’t so what Striesland did…litigation doesn’t hide stuff on the web…it makes it infamous
  25. 25. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved http://gizmodo.com/why-people-keep-trying-to-erase-the-hollywood-sign-from-1658084644 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Sign "Aerial Hollywood Sign" by Jelson25 - Own work. Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg http://la.curbed.com/archives/2011/06/big_tourists_go_away_message_shows_up_below_hollywood_sign.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#touristsgoaway -4 Want to really hide something? Like the residents near the Hollywood sign did…tired of endless tourist in their canyons…
  26. 26. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved http://gizmodo.com/why-people-keep-trying-to-erase-the-hollywood-sign-from-1658084644 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Sign "Aerial Hollywood Sign" by Jelson25 - Own work. Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg http://www.dailynews.com/20120315/gps-directions-to- hollywood-sign-will-change http://la.curbed.com/archives/2011/06/big_tourists_go_away_message_shows_up_below_hollywood_sign.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#touristsgoaway you are here sign is here can't physically block access, so virtually, algorithmically, block access... Google suggests walk this way… Change the algorithm…online navigation now sends you to a viewing center, not the sign…
  27. 27. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Want to understand someone? Other’s correlation with person’s self-assessment algorithm using 10 FB likes algorithm using 70 FB likes algorithm using 300 FB likes Work Colleague Friend Co-habitant Spouse Family Human Average Computer Average ©2015 by National Academy of Sciences Wu Youyou et al. PNAS 2015;112:1036-1040 http://www.pnas.org/content/112/4/1036.full
  28. 28. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Catch someone ‘in the mood’? …launching playlists as a proxy for the activity or mood you're in… [they have roughly 400,000 playlists related to barbecues …and 1.5 billion playlists in total] “ http://adage.com/article/digital/spotify-playlists-gauge-moods-ad- targeting/298066/?utm_source=digital_email&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=adage&ttl=1429805375
  29. 29. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved http://streamditto.com/ http://ditto.us.com/ …algorithms get visual
  30. 30. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-of-your-tumblr-photos-will-now-be-scanned-for-branded-content • Ditto's algorithm uses images from Twitter, Instagram & Tumblr • trained to recognize brands • …& indicators of users' feelings towards them • builds maps of brand affiliations… …algorithms get visual
  31. 31. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Want to guess someone’s age? http://www.how-old.net/ http://www.independent.co.uk/life- style/gadgets-and-tech/news/uploading-pictures-to-find-out-how- old-you-are-gives-microsoft-the-right-to-post-them-wherever- they-want-10219428.html http://www.theverge.com/2015/4/30/8522649/microsoft-how-old- do-i-look Not only does Microsoft’s lgorithm think I’m 84…it also llegedly can use my pic…
  32. 32. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Chessboard Data, agents, bots, algorithms Nearables, wearables, steerables & other smart things
  33. 33. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Beacons https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQW0PrI6x_M
  34. 34. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved http://www.wired.com/2014/10/future-of-artificial-intelligence/ everything that we formerly electrified, we will now cognitize “
  35. 35. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved [a] layer of connected intelligence that augments the actions of individuals, automates processes, & incorporates digitally empowered machines into our lives, increasing our insight into & control over the tangible world …fish don’t see the water http://chiefmartec.com/2013/06/martecs-law-technology-changes-exponentially-organizations-change-logarithmically/ http://share.cisco.com/internet-of-things.html Accenture Technology Vision 2014 http://www.accenture.com/microsite/it-technology-trends- 2014/Documents/TechVision/Downloads/Accenture_Technology_Vision_2014.pdf digital–physical blur: extending intelligence to the edge… “
  36. 36. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved [a] layer of connected intelligence that augments the actions of individuals, automates processes, & incorporates digitally empowered machines into our lives, increasing our insight into & control over the tangible world …fish don’t see the water http://chiefmartec.com/2013/06/martecs-law-technology-changes-exponentially-organizations-change-logarithmically/ http://share.cisco.com/internet-of-things.html Accenture Technology Vision 2014 http://www.accenture.com/microsite/it-technology-trends- 2014/Documents/TechVision/Downloads/Accenture_Technology_Vision_2014.pdf digital–physical blur: extending intelligence to the edge… “ “
  37. 37. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Ownership? http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/miss-a-payment-good-luck-moving-that-car/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0&pagewanted=all http://www.wired.com/2015/04/dmca-ownership-john-deere/
  38. 38. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved …machine-to-machine, or M2M, is a natural consequence of…computerization of devices around us…“ David Clark, a senior research scientist at MIT Devices…have their own patterns of communication, their own ‘social networks,’ which they use to share & aggregate information, & undertake automatic control & activation. …humans will be in a world in which decisions are being made by an active set of cooperating devices. Pew Research Center, March 2014, “Digital Life in 2025” http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/03/11/digital-life-in-2025/
  39. 39. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Pew Research Center, March 2014, “Digital Life in 2025” http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/03/11/digital-life-in-2025/ …machine-to-machine, or M2M, is a natural consequence of the increasing computerization of all the devices around us… Devices will…have their own patterns of communication, their own ‘social networks,’ which they use to share & aggregate information, & undertake automatic control & activation. …humans will be in a world in which decisions are being made by an active set of cooperating devices. “ David Clark, a senior research scientist at MIT
  40. 40. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved©Copyright Ian Fenwick 2010 segmentation
  41. 41. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved http://www.contagious.com/blogs/news-and-views/17888484-the-future-of-advertising-is-software xtreme segmentation
  42. 42. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved Vigo knows you’re drowsy before you do“http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/17/vigo/ http://lechal.com/ http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jul/25/vibrating-smartshoes-google-maps-lechal
  43. 43. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved http://www.wired.com/2014/10/future-of-artificial-intelligence/ The more people who use an AI, the smarter it gets. …our AI future is likely to be ruled by an oligarchy of two or three large, general purpose cloud-based commercial intelligences The smarter it gets, the more people use it. The more people that use it, the smarter it gets
  44. 44. Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved https://www.flickr.com/photos/tambako/494144260 Tiger eating in the snow by Tambako The Jaguar Digital is disruptive …it’s a tiger There was a young lady of Riga, Who smiled as she rode on the tiger; They returned from their ride With the lady inside, and the smile on the face of the tiger

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