Networked Political Protests  Patrick P. Meier The Fletcher School at Tufts & Berkman Center, Harvard University
1. Examples…
DigiActive
Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” DigiActive
Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS” DigiActive
Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS” Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests” DigiActive
2. Question…
ICT a statistically significant predictor of protests events?
3. Previous studies…
Data-driven
Data-driven Eyck 2001
Data-driven Eyck 2001 Stodden and Meier 2008
Data-driven Eyck 2001 Stodden and Meier 2008 ?
4. Data…
Parameters
Parameters Protests ICTs Controls
Parameters Protests ICTs Controls Time period 1990-2007 country-year
Parameters Protests ICTs Controls Time period 1990-2007 country-year 22 regimes
Graphs
Graphs Protests
Graphs Protests Internet
Graphs Protests Internet Mobiles
Summary Stats N = 396
5. Methods…
Regressions
Regressions y i,t   =    i  +   1   Int i,t  +  2   Mob i,t  +   3  Land i,t  +  4   Autoc i,t  +   5   Unemp i,t  +...
Regressions Observed  vs  Projected
Observed  vs  Projected F i   =  y obs,i   -  y model,i
6. Findings…
Results*
Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level
Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level  Mobiles -0.06 (0.06) not significant
Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level  Mobiles -0.06 (0.06) not significant Other  variables not significant
Results* Rsq = 0.613 Rsq = 0.155
6. Conclusion & Next
Thoughts Internet.gov?
Thoughts Internet.gov? Other methods?
Thoughts Internet.gov? Other methods? Field  research
Thank You [email_address] www.iRevolution.wordpress.com <- blog Twitter @patrickmeier
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Meier Siege Nv4

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Presentation given at University of Siegen conference on "Social Web: Towards Networked Political Protests."

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Meier Siege Nv4

  1. 1. Networked Political Protests Patrick P. Meier The Fletcher School at Tufts & Berkman Center, Harvard University
  2. 2. 1. Examples…
  3. 3. DigiActive
  4. 4. Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” DigiActive
  5. 5. Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS” DigiActive
  6. 6. Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS” Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests” DigiActive
  7. 7. 2. Question…
  8. 8. ICT a statistically significant predictor of protests events?
  9. 9. 3. Previous studies…
  10. 10. Data-driven
  11. 11. Data-driven Eyck 2001
  12. 12. Data-driven Eyck 2001 Stodden and Meier 2008
  13. 13. Data-driven Eyck 2001 Stodden and Meier 2008 ?
  14. 14. 4. Data…
  15. 15. Parameters
  16. 16. Parameters Protests ICTs Controls
  17. 17. Parameters Protests ICTs Controls Time period 1990-2007 country-year
  18. 18. Parameters Protests ICTs Controls Time period 1990-2007 country-year 22 regimes
  19. 19. Graphs
  20. 20. Graphs Protests
  21. 21. Graphs Protests Internet
  22. 22. Graphs Protests Internet Mobiles
  23. 23. Summary Stats N = 396
  24. 24. 5. Methods…
  25. 25. Regressions
  26. 26. Regressions y i,t =  i +  1 Int i,t +  2 Mob i,t +  3 Land i,t +  4 Autoc i,t +  5 Unemp i,t +  6 GDP i,t +  i,t
  27. 27. Regressions Observed vs Projected
  28. 28. Observed vs Projected F i = y obs,i - y model,i
  29. 29. 6. Findings…
  30. 30. Results*
  31. 31. Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level
  32. 32. Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level Mobiles -0.06 (0.06) not significant
  33. 33. Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level Mobiles -0.06 (0.06) not significant Other variables not significant
  34. 34. Results* Rsq = 0.613 Rsq = 0.155
  35. 35. 6. Conclusion & Next
  36. 36. Thoughts Internet.gov?
  37. 37. Thoughts Internet.gov? Other methods?
  38. 38. Thoughts Internet.gov? Other methods? Field research
  39. 39. Thank You [email_address] www.iRevolution.wordpress.com <- blog Twitter @patrickmeier

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