Digital Resistance in Repressive Regimes

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Presentation given at the "Digital Media and Repressive Regimes" conference in Copenhagen, November 2008

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  • First chapter of dissertation Numerous qualitative case studies and even more anecdotes on digital media in repressive regimes What does this all add up to? Can we start measuring the aggregate impact of digital activism on repressive rule? Does digital resistance, that is, digital activism applied to strategic nonviolent action, threatening repressive regimes? Is digital resistance reshaping the public sphere? How can analyze quantitatively the qualitative, anecdotal impact of digital resistance, or lack thereof?
  • Digital Resistance in Repressive Regimes

    1. 1. Is Digital Resistance Reshaping the Public Sphere? Patrick P. Meier The Fletcher School at Tufts & Berkman Center, Harvard University
    2. 2. 1. Examples…
    3. 3. DigiActive
    4. 4. Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” DigiActive
    5. 5. Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS” DigiActive
    6. 6. Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests” DigiActive Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS”
    7. 7. Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” Tibet - “Media Blackout?” Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS” Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests”
    8. 8. Tibet - “Media Blackout?” Morocco ‘08 - “Exposing Abuse” Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS” Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests”
    9. 9. Tibet - “Media Blackout?” Morocco ‘08 - “Exposing Abuse” Egypt - “Exposing Torture” Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests”
    10. 10. Tibet - “Media Blackout?” Morocco ‘08 - “Exposing Abuse” China - “Live-Twittered Arrest” Egypt - “Exposing Torture”
    11. 11. 2. Question…
    12. 12. ICT a statistically significant predictor of protests events?
    13. 13. 3. Previous studies…
    14. 14. Data-driven
    15. 15. Data-driven Eyck 2001
    16. 16. Data-driven Eyck 2001 Stodden and Meier 2008
    17. 17. Data-driven Eyck 2001 Stodden and Meier 2008
    18. 18. 4. Data…
    19. 19. Parameters
    20. 20. Parameters Protests ICTs Controls
    21. 21. Parameters Protests ICTs Controls Time period 1990-2007 country-year
    22. 22. Parameters Protests ICTs Controls Time period 1990-2007 country-year 22 regimes
    23. 23. Graphs
    24. 24. Graphs Protests
    25. 25. Graphs Protests Internet
    26. 26. Graphs Protests Internet Mobiles
    27. 27. Summary Stats N = 396
    28. 28. 5. Methods…
    29. 29. Regressions
    30. 30. Regressions y i,t =  i +  1 Int i,t +  2 Mob i,t +  3 Land i,t +  4 Autoc i,t +  5 Unemp i,t +  6 GDP i,t +  i,t
    31. 31. Regressions Observed vs Projected
    32. 32. Observed vs Projected F i = y obs,i - y model,i
    33. 33. 6. Findings…
    34. 34. Results* *preliminary, subject to change
    35. 35. Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level
    36. 36. Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level Mobiles -0.06 (0.06) not significant
    37. 37. Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level Mobiles -0.06 (0.06) not significant Other variables not significant
    38. 38. Results* Rsq = 0.613 Rsq = 0.155
    39. 39. 6. Conclusion & Next
    40. 40. Thoughts Why?
    41. 41. Thoughts Why? Other methods?
    42. 42. Thoughts Why? Other methods? Field research!
    43. 43. Thank You [email_address] www. iRevolution .wordpress.com <- blog Twitter @patrickmeier

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