Thanks for inviting me. We, or me, for now, and later today and later this week you, are going to invent the future of media.You are the future off media. The media you will consume, reject or reinvent are the future of media. By concepting the new media, deciding on its value by paying for it (or even more significant, not pay for it). You are part of the media evolution as well as a media revolution that is taking placeI am Justien Marseille, communication science is my background, my specialty is trendwatching, forecasting of the possible futures. Possible futures, because we are a part of it, you are a part of it, you are going to make this future of media. Today, this week ad the rest of your life.To understand what we are coming from, you have to understand that it is not long ago that media, television, where quite unique and scarce. In the netherlands, we started with one television channel in 1951. Trough this channel very important people sent very important messages. They did so at some times. Some moments, mostly after dinner, and before midnight. TV dirung the day was introduced in 1993. Before midnight there was a evening closure, mostly by an referent. Every friday the president (minsiter president) spoke to the people. He told them everything would be allright, and the people believed it. It took until 1983 before the third televion channel was introduced, and this was (before / after) the first commercial broadcaster entered the (ether). Since then it went faster and faster. Now there are more channels and programms you can ever zap trough…Big brothrer 1999.
We are living in an age of media revolution. Despite the new believe in television, al over the written media last week, everything is changing and there is no way that you will wachtv like your you did before.
The next 20 minutes I want to discus tree major changes:First we take a look at the use of media the stunning growth of the amount of broadcasters, narrowcasters, mass media and micro media. Then we focus on the effects of this trend in the way we receive the media content, how do we filter this enormous, overwhelming, almost killing amount of information. What can it do for democracy, form how we mange our lives, cities and evenings together.We finish (I do, you all start with that after this afternoon) with some strange idea’s on next media, possible futuresthat are still to strange or odd to believe. Way out of the paradigm of the now. You have to realize history, For your parents, and all the (opdrachtgevers) here in the room, this week, the media are god. Television was a spectacle. With one channel in 1950, to endless channales now. Durung my student years
We are past the theories of structured sender – receiver relations. This model, used for years, stated that media sending structured messages, from mighty senders, to receivers. It was quiet a shock when was found out that receivers most of the time made relied more on their friends than on the sender, or that noise disformed or even overnoised the message.Now threre is more noise thand message. The structured sender - receiver relationship disappeared. The noise, once result of bad connections or other technical things, became part of the endless offering.Every second an hour of content is uploaded to YouTube. EVERY SECOND an HOUR of content is uploaded, to YOUTUBE alone!This means that during this talk of half an hour, 75 DAYS of content is uploaded. 75 DAYS of content is uploaded every HALF HOUR. During the 5 days you are here that will be 3600 days of material. This means almost 10 years! Constant, 24 hours every day. In the time you are here in Almere, having a nice week on the subject of the future of media.
It is a paradigm shift, a huge big shift in thinking. As you are the future you should be are of the risk of The horseless carriage syndrome. Ever hearded about it? The horseless carriage syndrome. Ever heard of Marshall Mac Luhan? Okee, that is a pity / good news!The horseless carriage syndrome reverses to our onkonde to come up with new things. We tend to build new futures on groud of the things we know now.The first car was a carriage without a horse. The next public broadcaster is the old one, with a new name and logo.It human, its normal, it logic. It is extremely hard to really understand what the future needs. To conceptualize it. To make it. Getting ‘the old thinkers’ to join it is almost impossible. (That is why Kickstarster works) bjt sorry, that is an other lecture, on the future of money.Back to the future of media.
More news, more content, became an nuisance more then a merite.This beautiful statement, a bit of free news copy in the Dutch quality journal “metro” was found (and thankfully) shared by college Bas Leurs. The problem is not the making of content, the quest is the need of filters, curators. Not more, but less information. There is no information overload, there is an overload of crap between the ads. We need the abundance of news to fill the space between the ads. That’s the business model. The way we pay for the hard work of the MAKERS of content. We are lost in our business model, that tells us media are about money and markets.
Are you known to the theory of business generation building blocks? Make business with a simple schedule. Who is your client, what is he willing to share or pay, trough what channel can you sell or communicate it?Of course you all know. And even if you don’t know, you know, you ARE the bussinessmodel GENERATION. You’re wired out of the economy. That’s is why you are the generation that is going to question the space the economy took in our culture.You are the generation that is going to question the idea that media needs business. That is because you will, again, search or the You are the business model generation. You are the first generation for who the economy has been shown as religion. And as the economy became a religion, the goal ….a religion that almost alledoelenheiligde.
And of course your anwser to the ziljons of hours of content on you tube is quality. Of course 90% of the content your little sister is uploading to youtube is crap. Of course there is a difference in the high quality content made by proffesionals and the endless stream on movies on cats and other insignificant personal crap. Of course there is a difference between profesional newsmakers and amateurs…..Isn’t there? Lets have a look at this piece of quality television, an item to be n the big news spring has arrived in New York. It is may 2013. And spring is somewhat late this year. Real news, absolutely more important than wars in Syria, dayly killings and more small things going on in the world. Lets have a look what journalist do to compete to this endless stream of amature content on youtube. …….Fimlpje..
Those who control the present, control the past and therefore control the future, zo said George Orwell.
Now everting can be staged. We do not know what is truth and what is bought. So a truth finding company was invented. Marham Nolan, showed in a Ted talk how they check fects from you tube movies. Almost all wit oepnsourde.
For decades media where about getting our attention. Being open to be influenced was the business model we worked with. There is a big change the next decade this will turn 180drgrees. The public will be paid to open up. Media research companies will pay to listen to the conversations.
More available parts of content, easier to copy and to use in the way you, the end-user likes it, on the moment you want it, with the people you like, in the context of your preference. I tunes showed us digitalization did not per definition meant less sales. It showed more sales, especially the sales of individual singles, not forced to buy albums with half of the numbers you did not asked for. (and take a close look, albums did came back. And ringtones are a bit old fashioned… (and the real trendwatcher will remark that vinyl, the vereyols fashioned vilyn, is back with the hip dj and real music lovers. (but that’s also an other story, the lecture on trendwatching)
The telegraph was, more then hundred years ago, revolutionary because it connected places that where until then unreachable, or at least weeks or years away. New media dissolves distance. Smart phones are connecting the smallest villages in the darkest parts of Afrika. And it is going rapidly now . There was an internet connection on every 25 people two years ago already, this was twice as much as there ever where landlines. and even time.
And after everything is connected to everybody everywhere, a new are of media use is here, the era in where user generated social open social data help us ti predict the future.
More interesting then to discuss if the media led to a TV dictatorship and a smaller window on the world is to look at the new possibilities media give to democreacy.and lack of broad widows on the world it is to look at the possibilities Broadcasting led to narrowfocus. Medai are everywehre, connects everything to everybody. It will free functions and jobs from boses, and give more power to the people.
Many curatorsbroadcast media nanocast mediaFew curators
For links follow @creating 010Het Vaticaan, na de mediarevolutie:http://www.telegraaf.nl/buitenland/21387421/__Toen_en_nu__St.-Pietersplein__.htmlNRC: NPO gaat strijd met Google aan. http://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2013/03/12/nieuwe-naam-zenders-publieke-omroep-nederland-1-voortaan-npo-1/Future of tvhttp://www.businessinsider.com/despite-what-most-people-think-television-isnt-dead-2013-5Tweet Future mass mediahttps://twitter.com/jhmarseille/status/333458133827612672QS11 - http://quantifiedself.com/conference/Amsterdam-2013/breakout-sessionsSheldrakes parrot - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UX4d2nb7yUSaritos over eeuwenoude infostresshttp://www.saristos.nl/social-media-trends/social-media-geen-zorgen-we-kennen-het-al-300-jaar/Facebook Bas LeursBeeld uit Metro, NRC Handelsblad, Geenstijl