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Top 10 Marketing Predictions Final


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Top 10 Marketing Predictions Final

  1. 1. Top 10 Trends for Interactive Marketers in 2008 Presentation to TIMA By Howard Greenstein President and Social Media Evangelist, The Harbrooke Group [email_address] Search I’m Feeling Lucky
  2. 2. Introduction <ul><li>My Background </li></ul><ul><li>Some Current Work </li></ul>
  3. 3. A Word About Predictions… <ul><li>Predictions are my own based on industry experience and talking with recognized experts </li></ul><ul><li>Don’t bet the stock market based on my predictions </li></ul><ul><li>Fine print: </li></ul><ul><li>Predictions void as of 12/31/08 </li></ul><ul><li>Not valid in WI, NC, SC,WA and where prohibited by law </li></ul><ul><li>Some rights reserved </li></ul><ul><li>Salesman will not call </li></ul><ul><li>If you act now we’ll send you 2 extra predictions </li></ul><ul><li>Operators may be standing by </li></ul><ul><li>Mind the Gap </li></ul><ul><li>42 </li></ul>
  4. 4. Survey from TIMA <ul><li>Thanks to Amy and Hillary and to the ~38 people who replied to the survey </li></ul>
  5. 5. How to keep up?
  6. 6. 10. Disaggregation of Expenses in Marketing Campaigns <ul><li>Companies will pay their marketing firm to do something, and it will be ok to have them spread the job to many sub contractors with niche expertise </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ By the end of 2008, this won’t be weird anymore” Chris Brogan, Podcamp co-founder and consultant </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Internal company marketing people may also spread budget across many smaller firms in addition to their larger firms </li></ul>
  7. 7. Do your clients want to know if you hire outside experts?
  8. 8. How comfortable are you recommending a conversational strategy?
  9. 9. 9. Conversational Marketing Takes Off as a Practice <ul><li>This is an easy prediction, as marketing has been heading this way since the Web began - towards conversations with customers </li></ul><ul><li>Epinions, customer feedback forms </li></ul><ul><li>Cluetrain Manifesto </li></ul><ul><li>A practice that needs practice </li></ul>
  10. 10. Conversational Marketing continued <ul><li>When we see brands as large as GM working to speak with customers, you know this is a trend </li></ul><ul><li>From trend to practice in many fields takes 10 years - Cluetrain was published in 1998 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Look at all the books now: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Naked Conversations </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>We are Smarter Than Me </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The Virtual Handshake </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Etc. etc. etc. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Social Media Takes Down Reputations <ul><li>Sony RootKit on CDs </li></ul><ul><li>Walmarting across America </li></ul><ul><li>Governor Race in Virginia, George Allen </li></ul>
  12. 12. Blockbuster Social Ads on Facebook “ I tried to opt out of the advertising. Of course, I can't...”
  13. 13. Fast forward a few weeks…
  14. 14. Saturn Social Ads Feb 6, 2008! >>>
  15. 15. Blockbuster and Saturn Examples <ul><li>Companies Poke the Bear too much </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Don’t poke the bear </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>If you’re poking the bear, watch to see what happens </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Dell Hell 06/01/09 2nd listing on Google!
  17. 17. 8. Monitoring and Metrics Becomes Mandatory for Social Campaigns <ul><li>Hill and Knowlton Study from 2006 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>>90% of analysts agree that if a company doesn’t look after its reputation it will suffer financially. </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. Chevy Tahoe <ul><li>Mash up your own video from our clips contest </li></ul>
  19. 19. Unintended Effects
  20. 20. Dow Jones Insight says: <ul><li>The importance of a strong company strategy, message consistency, and transparency to all stakeholder groups is made dire by the transformation of customers into proactive, high-impact constituents . </li></ul>
  21. 21. Jan 9 2007 Apple unveils iPhone Oct 17 2006 Factiva Insight surfaces iPhone across all media Sept 26 2006 Factiva Insight surfaces iPhone in blogs
  22. 23. Metrics Imply ROI <ul><li>Procter & Gamble's internal math shows that a dollar invested in its community is four times as effective as the same dollar spent on television </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Josh Bernoff, Forrester * </li></ul></ul>*Strategies For Interactive Marketing In A Recession, Forrester Research, Inc., 2/6/08 and
  23. 24. 7. Online Video Gets a Business Model <ul><li>Writer’s Strike lead Marketers to look even more clearly at non-TV advertising vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>Recent data suggests that &quot;run of site&quot; video CPMs range from about $5-$20, with targeted sponsorships ranging from $15 to, on occasion, $300-$500. </li></ul><ul><li>(Source: Silicon Alley Insider research) </li></ul>
  24. 25. Writer’s Strike Leads People to Online Video <ul><li>U.S. Internet users (141 Million of them!) watched more than 10 billion videos online during the month of December 2007, </li></ul><ul><li>It was the single heaviest month for online video consumption since comScore initiated its tracking service. </li></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul>
  25. 26. More from comScore <ul><li>203 Minutes Watched (3.4 Hours!) </li></ul><ul><li>A 34-percent gain since the beginning of 2007. </li></ul><ul><li>The average online video viewer consumed 72 videos. </li></ul>
  26. 27. In December 2007 <ul><li>77.6 Million </li></ul><ul><li>Viewers watching </li></ul><ul><li>2.3 Billion </li></ul><ul><li>Videos on </li></ul>
  27. 28. In December 2007 <ul><li>40.5 Million </li></ul><ul><li>viewers watching </li></ul><ul><li>334 Million videos </li></ul><ul><li>On </li></ul>
  28. 29. Nielsen Ratings from Last week
  29. 30. Some Stats on Online Video <ul><li>In total,nearly 141 million Americans viewed online video in December. Google Sites also captured the largest online video audience with 79 million unique viewers, followed by Fox Interactive Media with 43.9 million and Yahoo! Sites with 38.2 million. </li></ul>*Rankings based on video content sites; excludes video server networks. Online video includes both streaming and progressive download video.
  30. 31. You Tube Now and 5 years from now <ul><li>3.3B Videos/month </li></ul><ul><ul><li>20% with Ads, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>40% of those ads watched </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>$20 CPM </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>= 13MM year business in 2008 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>20B Videos/month </li></ul><ul><ul><li>55% with ads, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>40% of those watched, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>$20 CPM </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>= 1.056B/year business </li></ul></ul>*Based on Comscore 3.3B in Dec 07 **Ads currently only on partner videos ***75% of ads were watched in recent tests.
  31. 32. 6. Life 3.0 <ul><li>“ The use of Real Life Events to make Virtual Connections that help you make Real (and Valuable) Connections ” </li></ul>
  32. 33. 5. Letting Go of Control <ul><li>“ A Brand is no longer what we tell the consumer it is – it is what consumers tell each other it is .” - Scott D. Cook, Founder and Chairman, Intuit, Board Member, Proctor and Gamble </li></ul>
  33. 34. RockYou-Sweeney Todd Created co-branded quiz within the Likeness application titled “Best Johnny Depp Characters” to promote Sweeney Todd debut. Newsfeed Promotion On-page Click-thru to Learn More About Movie Results: <ul><li>186k quizzes taken in 1 month, generating 2MM impressions </li></ul><ul><li>7MM additional impressions on matches page, with 46K click-thrus to movie site </li></ul>
  34. 35. Unintended Effects
  35. 36. Additional Play Examples
  36. 37. 4. Virtual Worlds Get “More Real”
  37. 38. Harry Potter Campaign in Second Life <ul><li>&quot;As far as everyone can tell, this was the highest one-on-one branded interaction known to date that ever took place on Second Life,&quot; said Greg Foster, chairman and president of Imax Filmed Entertainment. &quot;Reaching 15,000 people in exactly the demographic you're shooting over seven days is sort of hitting the marketing bonanza.” </li></ul>
  38. 39. Second Life Is Too Hard <ul><li>Not enough people </li></ul><ul><li>Difficult to use, navigate, create items and places </li></ul><ul><li>Discovery too hard (where things are going on) </li></ul><ul><li>But hey, it’s a start </li></ul>
  39. 40. WWE and Habbo <ul><li>Extremely successful to drive new viewers to PPV events </li></ul><ul><li>Huge participation (no public numbers) </li></ul><ul><li>Creating avatars, purchasing virtual goods </li></ul>
  40. 41. The Next Gen of Virtual Worlds <ul><li>To quote Eric Rice: “What if, EA, who already has plenty of experience in 3D, environments, personalization, sim residences, and community, found a way that made each safehouse inside of any given racing franchise?” </li></ul>
  41. 42. What kind of new marketing methods are your clients asking for they weren’t asking for last year?
  42. 43. Other…. <ul><li>Web 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Search </li></ul><ul><li>Personalization </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile </li></ul><ul><li>Blogs </li></ul><ul><li>UGC </li></ul>
  43. 44. Other…continued <ul><li>Customer Rentention Marketing </li></ul><ul><li>More use of video…Content is still king. </li></ul><ul><li>Text Messaging is Dead - everyone will have mobile email.. </li></ul><ul><li>Business Intelligence </li></ul><ul><li>Partner and alternate selling/distribution channels </li></ul><ul><li>Blue Ocean strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Maximizing the value of the existing customer base </li></ul><ul><li>Understanding the Return on Marketing Investment (ROMI)”, knowing the Basics </li></ul><ul><li>Results Management, Accountability, Measurability, Proving what works with valid testing methods, avoiding hype and gimmicks. </li></ul>
  44. 45. 2) Approximately how much will you spend on the above items per year?
  45. 46. 3. Mobile Gets Agile <ul><li>Your Remote Control for the world </li></ul>
  46. 47. Outdoor Interactive Voting: “Develop a Point of View” <ul><li>Billboard for BBC World and BBDO Goal: Promote launch of BBC America with an interactive billboard </li></ul><ul><li>The Billboard </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Located at gateway to NYC’s Times Square (Broadway & 50 th ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pedestrian and automotive traffic text their vote and watch the display change in real time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>One month event with a new interactive poll each week </li></ul></ul>
  47. 48. Outdoor Interactive “Develop a Point of View” Billboard
  48. 49. Outdoor + Your Mobile
  49. 50. iPhone Users 50X more search requests <ul><li>Google reports that it receives 50 times more search requests from Apple iPhones than any other mobile phone on the market. It also said mobile search will out pace regular computer internet search in the next few years …Initially it thought there must be some errors, but later analysis proved that it did come from iPhones according to Vic Gundotra, head of Google’s mobile operations </li></ul>
  50. 51. In the Last Few Years Search=$ <ul><li>Ads around Search were the driving force for Google’s rise </li></ul><ul><li>As phones surface location data, a search for “Coffee” near “201 East Hargett St., 27601” has a price </li></ul><ul><li>I’m not a big believer in ads pushed to your phone, but asking for them is another story </li></ul>
  51. 52. 2. Widgets Change the Location of Your Info/Message to “Anywhere” <ul><li>Facebook for Mobile Platform </li></ul><ul><li>New phone browsers allow desktop-like social experiences </li></ul>
  52. 53. Can You Spot the Ad on this page?
  53. 54. Facebook And The Power of Social Applications <ul><li>Facebook opened their platform to independent developers in May 2007 in the interest of attracting top development talent to help make the Facebook experience more fun and engaging </li></ul><ul><li>There are now nearly 14,000 applications on Facebook totaling 520 Million installations </li></ul><ul><li>After the integration of social applications, Facebook’s user base grew from 26 million to 60 million Unique Active Users </li></ul><ul><li>85% of Facebook users have added at least one application to their profile since the May launch </li></ul>Source : Adonomics, Nielsen//NetRatings, Sept 07
  54. 55. MySpace Open(social) to Developers <ul><li>Open Social is a platform that allows developers to write widgets once, and display them on MySpace as well as other Social Networks. This makes it even easier to write widgets once, reach people everywhere. </li></ul>
  55. 56. Has Google Won the Search Engine War?
  56. 57. 1. Google vs. the World <ul><li>2008 is the year of major Google backlash </li></ul><ul><li>People can only make so much on Google AdWords </li></ul><ul><li>Google has created “Knowl” to go up against Wikipedia, Mahalo, Ask, and Squidoo </li></ul><ul><ul><li>None of those sites are going to want to carry Google Ads if they’re competing (note that Ask does still carry Google Ads) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Their opposition to MSFT/Y! merger is not going over well… </li></ul>
  57. 58. Google’s Mobile Strategy
  58. 59. The Chairman of WPP - Google is a “Frienemy” <ul><li>“ It's going to be very interesting to see how it shakes out,” Sorrell said. “We buy about £200m of their media and that's up from about £150m last year . Google is a short-term friend and a long-term enemy and probably the shorter term just got a little bit shorter and the longer term got a bit closer as a result of the DoubleClick acquisition,” he said. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WPP acquired 24/7 RealMedia in May of 2007 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New search marketing war brewing - Everyone vs. Google (hence the Y!/MSFT discussions, Y!/Newscorp, Y!/AOL, etc.) </li></ul>
  59. 60. Google your google with google….
  60. 61. Deep inside Google’s Halls… <ul><li>What Shall we do tonight, Larry? </li></ul><ul><li>Same thing we do every night, Serge. Try and take over the world! </li></ul><ul><li>Narf! </li></ul>
  61. 62. Google’s Goal???
  62. 63. “ Don’t Be Evil” <ul><li>&quot;Don't be evil&quot; is said to recognize that large corporations can often maximize short-term profits with actions that destroy long-term brand image and competitive position. By instilling a Don't Be Evil culture, the corporation establishes a baseline for decision making that can enhance the trust and image of the corporation that outweighs short-term gains from violating the Don't Be Evil principles. </li></ul>
  63. 64. Is This What’s Next?
  64. 65. Are we looking for salvation from an underpowered model?
  65. 66. That’s a story for another day…. [email_address] Thank you for your time and attention

Editor's Notes