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Navigating Uncertainty when Launching New Ideas

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Developing innovative products involves confronting a dizzying amount of uncertainty. Here's a talk from Thomson Reuter's Knowledge Worker Series from 1/21/15 on how to best navigate that uncertainty. Lessons gleaned from prod dev at NPR and through dozens of Techstars startups. More here: http://keithhopper.com/uncertainty

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Navigating Uncertainty when Launching New Ideas

  1. 1. Navigating Uncertainty when Launching New Ideas keithhopper.com/uncertainty @khopper
  2. 2. Uncertainty doesn’t stop success
  3. 3. #1: Know your purpose #2: Know your risks #3: Know your mindset #4: Know how to plan #5: Know yourself #6: Know how to fail SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
  4. 4. #1: Know your purpose SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
  5. 5. “We need to stop users from abandoning our shopping cart” “We want more customers to go paperless” “Our online advertising rates are plummeting and we need revenue to support content production.” Articulate a clear problem statement
  6. 6. Knowing your purpose permits different solution approaches without losing your way. SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
  7. 7. #2: Know your risks SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
  8. 8. Desirability (human) Feasibility (technical) Viability (business) Risks hide inside bad assumptions
  9. 9. “Very few startups fail for lack of technology. They almost always fail for lack of customers” - Steve Blank “There’s one thing that kills startups: not making something users want” - Paul Graham
  10. 10. RISK UNCERTAINTY Prioritize your assumptions
  11. 11. Test your assumptions
  12. 12. Knowing your risks lets you unravel them early. SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
  13. 13. #3: Know your mindset SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
  14. 14. target customer market needs solution shape communication scale reliability infrastructure predictability safety maintenance cost insights evidence hypotheses unknowns what-ifs assumptions surprises EXPLORER MINDSET BUILDER MINDSET VS.
  15. 15. Knowing your mindset helps suggest the appropriate actions to take. SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY *
  16. 16. #4: Know how to plan SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
  17. 17. Take your position regularly and course-correct
  18. 18. VALUE TIME Re-plan to eliminate diminishing value
  19. 19. Knowing how to plan allows for course-corrections and helps ensure you hit your destination. SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
  20. 20. #5: Know yourself SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
  21. 21. Small teams ensure shared values
  22. 22. Use a learning framework. Be deliberate. REFLECT IDENTIFY IMPROVEMENT ENACT CHANGE ASSESS RESULTS
  23. 23. When the team knows itself anything is possible. SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY *
  24. 24. #6: Know how to fail SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
  25. 25. All startups know disappointment
  26. 26. Anything is possible
  27. 27. “Success is going from failure to failure without a loss of enthusiasm”
  28. 28. Knowing how to fail ensures you get back up. SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
  29. 29. #1: Knowing your purpose permits different solution approaches without losing your way. #2: Knowing your risks lets you unravel them early. #3: Knowing your mindset helps suggest the appropriate actions to take. #4: Knowing how to plan allows for course-corrections and helps ensure you hit your destination. #5: When the team knows itself anything is possible. #6: Knowing how to fail ensures you get back up. SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
  30. 30. keithhopper.com/uncertainty 'Installation (Banana Peel)', Adriana Lara, 2008

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