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Pca10 john vanston, tfi 2 15-13

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Dr. John Vanston's MiniTrends presentation at ProductCamp, Feb 16, 2013, Austin Texas

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Pca10 john vanston, tfi 2 15-13

  1. 1. Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends John H. Vanston, Ph.D. Technology Futures, Inc. (512) 258-8898 www.minitrends.com & www.tfi.com jvanston@tfi.com Product Camp February 16, 2013, AT&T Conference Center “Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends” Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference CenterPlease contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material. 1
  2. 2. Presentation Outline  Brief introduction to MiniTrend Concept  Identification of profitable public spirited public-spirited business opportunities by participants using the MiniTrends concept  Discussion of identified MiniTrends  Closing remarks 3 MEGATRENDS John Naisbitt 1982  Industrial Society → Information Society  Forced Technology → High Tech/High Touch  National Economy → World Economy  Short Term → Long Term  Centralization → Decentralization  Institutional Help → Self Help  Representative Democracy → Participatory Democracy  Hierarchies → Networking  North → South  Either/Or → Multiple Options 4 “Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends” Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference CenterPlease contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material. 2
  3. 3. MEGATRENDS Current  Convergence of Computer and Communication Technologies  Movement from a Physics Age to the Biotechnology Biotechnolog Age  Increasing Awareness of Climate Change  Government Involvement in the Financial Arena  Explosion of Social Media Involvement  Growing Difficulty with Sovereign Debt  Long Term Energy Shortage  Aging of Populations in Earth’s Most Prosperous Nations  Rise in China’s Economic Power 5 Megatrends are certainly important  However However, it is hard to exploit them successfully because: • They are well known • They are too general to provide specific g guidance  Buried within Megatrends are MiniTrends 6 “Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends” Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference CenterPlease contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material. 3
  4. 4. MiniTrends… …are emerging trends that are of a scope and importance to represent attractive business opportunities to individuals and organizations that are:  Alert enough to recognize them  Perceptive e oug to appreciate them e cept e enough app ec ate t e  Clever enough to take advantage of them 7 Characteristics of a MiniTrend  Sufficiently evolved that reasonable projections can be made about future developments d l t  Promises to be significantly important in the relatively near future (2-5 years)  Not yet widely recognized and/or y y g appreciated by the general public or most businesses 8 “Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends” Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference CenterPlease contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material. 4
  5. 5. Who Can Gain from MINITRENDS:  Entrepreneurs to identify, assess, and exploit attractive new business opportunities  Decision Makers in small and mid size mid-size businesses to gain advantage by recognizing and utilizing emerging trends  Innovative Thinkers in larger businesses to distinguish themselves by their special insights and p g perceptiveness p  Investors to uncover attractive new investment opportunities  Job Seekers to define 9 employment opportunities Energy Needs Renewable Energy Wind Power Wind Ge e ato Generator Controls (Megatrend) This is a MiniTrend (Still a Megatrend) 10 “Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends” Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference CenterPlease contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material. 5
  6. 6. How to Uncover Attractive MINITRENDS  Follow the Money  Follow the Leaders  Examine Limits  Consider Human Nature  Take Note of Demographics  Analyze Frustrations  Search for Convergences 11 12 “Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends” Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference CenterPlease contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material. 6
  7. 7. Impact Wheels The systematic use of the intuition, judgment, and knowledge of an individual or group to determine first and higher order impacts of:  Trends  Decisions  Events  Strategies 13 Steps in Impact Wheel Development  Select trend, decision, event, or strategy for analysis  Place in hub of wheel Implication Implication Implication I li i  Record direct Implication implications of activity Trend, Implication Decision, Implication  Record next level Strategy, or Event Implication implications connected Implication by double or color lines Implication Implication  Continue process as desired  Connect circles as appropriate 14  Analyze results and opportunities “Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends” Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference CenterPlease contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material. 7
  8. 8. 15 Job Seekers Wind Generator Controls Wind Power Energy Renewable Needs Energy 16 “Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends” Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference CenterPlease contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material. 8
  9. 9. MiniTrend Identification Exercise  Gathering participants into groups  Selection of Group Leaders  Selection of Megatrend on which to concentrate  Identification of attractive MiniTrends  Discussion of identified MiniTrends 17 Candidate MegaTrends  Protection of the biosphere  Sustainable use of natural resources  Reduction and disposal of waste  Energy conservation  Safe products and services  Environment restoration  From Coalition for Environmentally Responsible 18 Companies(CERES) Code “Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends” Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference CenterPlease contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material. 9
  10. 10. Final Comment  Application of the MiniTrend Concept will allow both you and your colleagues to demonstrate and utilize your originality, d t t d tili i i lit your logic, your perceptiveness, your basic good sense, and YOUR IMAGINATION 19 It can also be a lot of fun! These and other non-sourced photos: Clipart.com (A division of Getty Images) or TFI “Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends” Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference CenterPlease contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material. 10
  11. 11. Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends John H. Vanston, Ph.D. Technology Futures, Inc. (512) 258-8898 www.minitrends.com & www.tfi.com jvanston@tfi.com Product Camp 21 February 16, 2013, AT&T Conference Center “Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends” Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference CenterPlease contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material. 11

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